The starting point for my case, therefore, is not our GDP or an economic forecast, it is the thematic review of deaths of children and young people through probable suicide. That review, published in 2014 and shortly to be updated, contains detailed case studies and analysis and examines modifiable factors that may have contributed to suicide deaths. It is led by Professor Ann John of Swansea University, who chairs the national advisory group on suicide prevention and self-harm for the Welsh Government, and I want to take this opportunity to pay tribute to Ann for the work that she does day in, day out to prevent suicide in Wales.

It identifies opportunities for prevention and makes recommendations to reduce the risk of suicide for children and young people in Wales. Many Members here know that the prevention of young suicide is something very close to my heart. I spoke at a conference about children's mental health a little while ago, and the theme of my speech was very much about the importance of listening to the voices of young people. At the end, a delegate came up to me and said, 'I wonder what the young people who have died by suicide would say to us if they were here today'. I found those incredibly difficult, challenging and painful words to hear because, of course, we can't ask them. That is why the thematic review is so crucial. It is one of the very few ways we can actually hear the voices of these young people. It is the closest thing we have to retrospective recommendations directly from those young people themselves on how we could've helped them and how to prevent future deaths.

And the second recommendation from that report said this,

'Welsh Government should explore mechanisms to ensure children and young people between the ages of 16 and 18 years are supported in education or training, which includes work based training. This could be enabled by raising the school leaving age to 18 years.'

That recommendation was based on common themes that emerged in the review, and I'm assured will emerge once again in the updated version we can expect in a few weeks.

In the 14 cases that were given in-depth narratives by the review panel, common factors were identified, including the fact that many had specific educational needs or restricted educational attainment. Many were not in education, employment or training, and, as such, received little or no support. And a separate study into social isolation and loneliness in the UK found that, for young adults, it is those individuals who do not progress to further education, training or employment who are most at risk of becoming socially isolated and lonely. This leads to individuals falling behind their peers in the labour market and may result in long-term income deprivation and increased likelihood of social isolation.

By way of contrast, we know the sense of belonging and well-being that educational settings can afford young people, whether that be in school, college or an apprenticeship. The adult learning awards highlight every year the value that education can return to previously troubled lives. Emily's story is one we will all recognise from our communities. A difficult upbringing had left her withdrawn, battling with mental health issues and low self-esteem. At 15, she was diagnosed with anorexia and depression; she had become isolated. But after seeing a teaching assistant work with her son, Emily became inspired to control her anxiety and lack of confidence and enrolled on an adult community learning introduction to childcare course. She has thrived in this learning environment and has progressed on to the level 2 programme as well as taking on other courses. Education gave Emily the chance she needed to battle back from the brink. She isn't alone. I know that good progress has been made in Wales in terms of reducing the number of young people who are NEET and in raising our skills levels across the board, but that is not the case for all.

The Bevan Foundation report, 'I want to be something', told us that one in three year 11 pupils are leaving school without five good GCSEs. The options that face those young people are too confusing, limited and not fit for purpose. The report, again based on young people's actual lived experience, says that the current plethora of courses and programmes means that a minority simply bounce around different schemes before becoming long-term NEET, with negative consequences for the rest of their lives.