Questions now from the party spokespeople. The Conservative spokesperson, Paul Davies.

Diolch Llywydd. Minister, can you provide an update on the resources and work plan of the Economic Intelligence Wales unit that now actually sits within the Development Bank of Wales, which of course will have a role to play on any future tax proposals?

Thank you very much for that question. Unfortunately, the Development Bank of Wales sits within the portfolio of the Minister for economy, so I'm unable to provide you with that update today, but I will certainly ensure that it is forthcoming as soon as possible.

Well, Minister, surely the Economic Intelligence Wales unit will have a role to play on any future tax proposals, and therefore this unit is important to your portfolio as well. Effective economic intelligence is required to provide public policy makers with a proper foundation in order to ensure that policy measures taken by Government are targeted, impactful and properly understood. Ideally, this activity should be completed under one roof, and by an expert body. Wales has lacked this capacity for many years and it's still somewhat regrettable that it has taken so long for this capacity to finally now be put in place. However, the new Economic Intelligence Wales unit within the Development Bank of Wales will now be completing important work analysing the Welsh economy. As the Economic Intelligence Wales unit is so vital for tax policy, and therefore for your entire brief, Minister, could I please then ask you again what is the work plan of this unit going forward, and how do you anticipate this new unit impacting on your own proposals for tax in Wales for the future?

Well, I've had some discussions with regard to the impact of the work of the unit in terms of looking forward and identifying potential businesses at risk, so this is something that it does monitor frequently with regard to advising Welsh Government on the kinds of investments that it wants to take. The specific context I had those discussions in related to procurement, so ensuring that where Welsh Government is procuring, it is doing so with good knowledge about the sustainability, I suppose, of the businesses with which it's engaging.

Minister, what is vital, of course, is that Wales uses the new tax powers at its disposal to boost the Welsh economy, and the devolution of income tax powers, for example, presents, I think, an exciting new opportunity to support and grow the Welsh economy. As such, what research or modelling has the Welsh Government undertaken to assess the impact of changes to income tax rates here in Wales, on both tax revenue and, indeed, the performance of the Welsh economy as a whole. And, perhaps, going forward, this is something that the Economic Intelligence Wales unit could also be involved in.

Thank you for raising that. Welsh Government has done significant work, in conjunction with the chief economist and the Wales Centre for Public Policy, in terms of mapping out our current tax base and then looking at what the future of our tax base might look like in Wales, were we to undertake various interventions. There are various choices that we can make in terms of Welsh rates of income tax, but also in terms of growing our tax base, we need to be looking at how we use the levers at our disposal in the housing department, for example, in education, and how we attract the right kind of people into Wales who are going to be able to make a good, strong contribution to our economy through growing our tax base here.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you, Llywydd. The Scotland Act 2016 prepared the ground for the devolution of responsibility for 11 benefits to the Scottish Government. The new welfare agency has been established in Scotland now. A recent report from the Wales Governance Centre reported that the devolution of elements of the welfare state to Wales on a similar model could provide a boost of some £200 million to the public purse in Wales. It is a very substantial sum. Does the Minister agree with that analysis from the Wales Governance Centre, and if she does, isn't it now a priority to proceed to seek these powers as a matter of urgency? 

Well, as the First Minister set out in his letter to Leanne Wood earlier this month, he was keen to reassure that the report by the Wales Governance Centre will be taken into consideration as part of the work that we have already outlined in Plenary on 5 February, which relates to the process of considering the case for devolving the administration of parts of the welfare system. Of course, the First Minister has agreed that an early milestone in this process will be an assessment of the case for change by the Wales Centre for Public Policy, which will be undertaken as part of their work programme for 2019-20. And he's asked the Wales Centre for Public Policy to meet with Leanne Wood in her spokesperson role, and I understand that meeting is scheduled for next month.

And I was pleased, certainly after years of my party campaigning for the devolution of the administration of welfare, to hear positive sounds from Government, and I'm pleased that we are at a point where this is under consideration. But really the truth is that this is a no-brainer, especially when the report from the Wales Governance Centre made it clear that there are elements of welfare that you can safely predict, that there won't be fluctuation, or too much fluctuation, in coming years, where we can very confidently say that there is no real risk to the public purse in Wales. So, once again, maybe it's the case also that Welsh Government has decided to wait for a report from a committee in this Assembly, but of course we've had two committee reports already that have suggested that we move forward towards the devolution of welfare. Why is it that Government has not been able up to this point to even consider, and why is it that we should believe that you are willing now, when you have not been in the past, to take this hugely sensible step, which the evidence is now absolutely clear on, that we can look after the most vulnerable in Wales by doing this?

Clearly we would want to take an evidence-based approach to this issue so the more the evidence base grows, the more it helps us in terms of determining the way forward. But I think it is fair to say, as the paper to which you refer concludes, that the uncertainties that remain at this relatively early stage in consideration of the benefit that devolution of benefits could bring means the idea will be approached with justifiable trepidation. I think it is reasonable to take a cautious and informed approach to this particular issue, because there are potentially big risks there for the Welsh Government in terms of taking on various benefits.

Trepidation and caution, yes, but we're seeing evidence that is quite clear now that there could be a surplus of £200 million for the Welsh purse from doing this, and that is £200 million that can be used to mitigate the worst effects of austerity, which has been imposed by the Conservatives and, before them, the Liberal Democrats at Westminster. This is an opportunity that, thus far, Welsh Government has failed to grasp. Now, with the evidence that we have in front of us, and as we celebrate 20 years of devolution, is it not the time to say now that for the next 20 years we are going to be in a position, by taking these responsibilities confidently, of being able to mitigate and help the most vulnerable people in our societies in Wales, as they're doing in Scotland?

Of course, this isn't an issue that can be resolved very quickly, as I think the Member is suggesting it might be, because of course the report to which you referred in the first question refers to the so-called S-benefits, so the specific set of benefits that have been devolved to Scotland, and actually it's only now that the Scottish Government is in the very early stages of their journey to manage and integrate those benefits. So, I think the suggestion that this is something that could happen almost overnight is fanciful, but it is something that the Welsh Government is taking seriously and we look forward to working positively, I would hope, with Plaid Cymru and with other interested parties as we develop our thinking on this agenda.