Llywydd, this is a decision being made at the point of maximum uncertainty about our financial future. Unprecedented austerity in the public finances is combined with a complete lack of clarity over our capital budgets for the coming years, and is exacerbated by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, while we know that the UK Government’s lack of progress in bringing forward a comprehensive spending review could see the Welsh Government’s budget even lower in the future than it is today.

This financial position has significant and specific implications for the exercise of my powers to make the necessary compulsory purchase orders for the project to proceed. In this regard, and before deciding to make any CPOs, I am required to be satisfied that there is a compelling need for such orders and that they must be in the public interest, and that that, together, must justify interference with the human rights of those with an interest in the land required for the project. I must be satisfied that the necessary resources to carry out the project would be available within a reasonable timescale and that the project is unlikely to be blocked by any other impediment to its implementation. Llywydd, I have concluded that the financial position means that I cannot be satisfied that I can lawfully exercise my compulsory purchase order powers in relation to the project, because I am not satisfied that the project can be implemented within the foreseeable future, given the prolonged period of financial uncertainty we face.

Now, Llywydd, in light of this conclusion, it is actually unnecessary for me to go on to consider whether the advantages of the project outweigh its disadvantages and whether I agree with the inspector’s overall conclusions as to where the balance between advantages and disadvantages lies. Nevertheless, I have proceeded, as the inspector did, by addressing, as he says in paragraph 8.481 of his report, the ‘strong and competing interests’ at play and the question of where the balance between those competing interests should lie. I have therefore considered the advantages and disadvantages identified by the inspector, and I have concluded that, even without the Cabinet’s position on funding, and even if, on those grounds, it was likely that the project would be implemented, I would, in any event, have decided not to make the schemes and orders.

I recognise the inspector’s conclusions as to the advantages and disadvantages of the project. However, I attach greater weight than the inspector to the adverse impacts that the project would have on the environment and ecology. In particular, I attach very significant weight to the fact that the project would have a substantial adverse impact on the Gwent levels sites of special scientific interest and their reen network and wildlife, and on other species, and a permanent adverse impact on the historic landscape of the Gwent levels. As a result, in my judgment, the project’s adverse impacts on the environment, taken together with other disadvantages, outweigh its advantages. In weighing up the inspector’s ‘strong competing interests’, my judgment as to where the balance between those competing interests lies ultimately differs from his. For these additional reasons, separate to those on the grounds of funding, I do not consider that there is a compelling case in the public interest to expropriate the land that is subject to the compulsory purchase orders, and I do not consider that it would be appropriate or expedient to make other schemes and orders. 

Llywydd, just as my decision has had to take into account the latest and changed financial context facing the Welsh Government, so too future solutions to the congestion issues on the M4 around Newport must reflect the most recent environmental challenges we face as a nation. Two significant recent reports have highlighted different aspects of these challenges. The first is the UK Committee on Climate Change ‘Net Zero’ report on climate change, recommending a new 95 per cent target for emissions reduction in Wales by 2050. In response, the Welsh Government, recognising the scale and urgency of the threat, declared a climate emergency. Secondly, last month, the United Nations published its global assessment on biodiversity. That report set out the scale of the impact that human activity and development is having on species, and the threat that further development is likely to pose to ecosystems across the world. Llywydd, the findings of that report apply equally to us here in Wales.

Now, Llywydd, I acknowledge, of course, that there are strong views on both sides of the debate in relation to this project. There is a consensus, however, and a consensus that I share, that the issues of capacity, resilience and environment at the M4 corridor around Newport do have to be addressed and that they will need a mixture of both local and regional solutions. In light of the funding constraints and the environmental impacts that have led to my decision on the orders, it is important that those issues are now addressed collaboratively, and that voices on all sides have the chance to shape the way forward together. It's in this context that I announce today a new commission that will be appointed—a commission of transport experts charged with reviewing the evidence and making recommendations to the Welsh Government on alternative solutions to the problems faced at the M4 corridor around Newport. Those suggestions can include innovative technologies and other measures to address those current problems. 

The commission will be guided by our overarching ambition to develop a high-quality, multimodal, integrated and low-carbon transport system, and the context of the major challenges of climate change and biodiversity that I have set out already. The commission will be drawn from a spectrum of expertise, and it will be supported in its work by a dedicated team within the Welsh Government. Ken Skates, the Minister for Economy and Transport, will make further announcements on the commission, including timescales—making those announcements to the Assembly tomorrow. In advance of the commission’s work, the Minister will implement a series of fast-tracked, targeted interventions to alleviate congestion on the M4, for example actions to expedite recovery of vehicles, enhanced traffic officer patrols, live journey information to inform better transport choices, and a behavioural campaign to reduce accidents and incidents and to make maximum use of existing lane capacity.

Llywydd, transport is an area, as we heard in the question posed to me by the former First Minister, where this Welsh Government has bold and ambitious plans for the future, from the £5 billion plan we have developed through Transport for Wales for the new rail franchise and metro, to major legislation to improve bus services, to the biggest investment in active travel ever seen across Wales. 

Resolving the congestion issues around the M4 is an important part of those plans, but there are, as we see from the inspector's report, no easy or uncontested answers. We are committed to taking an inclusive and collaborative approach to finding innovative, affordable and sustainable solutions in the shortest possible timescales, and we look forward to working with others to achieve that ambition.