In the meantime, we must continue our preparations for the possibility of leaving the EU without a deal at the end of October. Since the extension was agreed in April, we have been taking the opportunity to review the preparations that we made as the anticipated departure date neared in April. It is important that we take stock and think about how best to build on all the valuable work done across the public sector and beyond. It remains the case that it is not possible to mitigate fully the impacts of a 'no deal' exit on Wales, either in the short or in the long term. There is simply no measure that could fully counteract the effects of a lurch into trading under World Trade Organization rules. The imposition of tariffs and the potential for delays and blockages at ports because of customs checks are an inevitable consequence of leaving the European Union without a deal.

The UK Government’s own paper in February of this year, setting out the implications for business and trade of leaving the EU without a deal, conceded that the UK economy would be 6.3 to 9 per cent smaller in the long term in a 'no deal' scenario than it otherwise would have been when compared with today. Alarmingly, in Wales it would be 8.1 per cent smaller. Law enforcement experts have made it clear that the UK will be a less safe place if the UK leaves without a deal.

So, we want to make sure that our preparations are as robust as possible. Overall, I am pleased to say that reflections on previous preparations are positive. We had robust governance structures in place that provided effective co-ordination and decision-making. We established sound structures for engagement with the wider public sector—indeed, the Wales Audit Office noted in their report that the Welsh Government had provided leadership in this area. Where expenditure on no deal has been required, we have sought to ensure that, as far as possible, it was in line with wider strategic aims and ideally would be beneficial in the event of no deal or otherwise. 

We've given the UK Government our reflections on UK-wide preparations. While we did see improvements in information sharing and the same type of central co-ordination that we had in Wales, it came too late. It is also important that the relationships and structures that have been built up do not deteriorate. So, building on these reflections, we are revisiting our planning and preparations to ensure that they are as robust as possible, considering, in particular, whether any of our underpinning assumptions need to change. For example, we've been considering the implications of a potential leave date in the autumn instead of the spring, such as the different patterns of imports and exports and the availability of storage capacity.

The health and well-being of the people of Wales remains our top priority and we will continue to do our utmost to secure access to medicines and security of food supplies. We will continue to support businesses in all sectors of the economy through advice provided by the Business Wales Brexit portal and financial support through the Brexit business resilience fund, the economy futures fund and the Development Bank of Wales. And we will continue to press the UK Government so that Wales does not lose a penny of funding.

We continue to strike a balance to ensure we allocate resources on 'no deal' preparations appropriately and proportionately, whilst continuing to deliver other priorities and also to prepare to ensure that Wales’s interests are reflected in any future negotiations. But with the current parliamentary impasse, the lack of any consensus about a way forward, and the prospect of a hard Brexiteer leading the Conservative Party and the country, the threat of no deal remains very real, and so we must prepare for it.

Dirprwy Lywydd, I would encourage all businesses and organisations across Wales to do the same. Of course, we fully recognise the challenge of devoting scarce resources to planning for something that may not happen, but the risk of ignoring the threat of no deal is very great. It is simply not enough to now take the chance that Parliament or the EU will put a stop to it at the last minute, once again. We provide advice and guidance through our Preparing Wales website—Paratoi Cymru—which is regularly updated with support for the people of Wales. Businesses can access financial support and advice about trading through uncertain times on the Business Wales website, including the Brexit portal, and through the Development Bank of Wales. We have now identified a number of simple, low-cost actions to help businesses prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit and which will be useful for their businesses anyway, and those details are now available on Paratoi Cymru.

Dirprwy Lywydd, we are facing the real and ongoing threat of a disorganised Brexit. Against a backdrop of real uncertainty, we are taking action where it lies within our power to make sure that Wales is prepared. As a responsible Government, safeguarding the interests of the people of Wales will always be our absolute priority.