4. Statement by the Counsel General and Brexit Minister: Update on Brexit

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:44 pm on 4 June 2019.

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Photo of Mark Reckless Mark Reckless Conservative 4:44, 4 June 2019

Of course, it was the EU who put the NHS on the table in its TTIP negotiations. But if I may try and find a little common ground with the Minister, in terms of the 'no deal' preparations, which I did see, in terms of the Minister's knowledge of and exposition of, through my membership of the External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee, I think it is good that Ministers have sought to spend money, where possible, in a way that also supports other objectives. I think Ministers also had some success, from a Wales perspective, in improving communications with the UK Government, which were poor initially but have improved at least to a degree. I think when one compares the 'no deal' preparations—certainly, Ministers here have been subject to fewer successful legal challenges than UK Ministers have on some of their preparations and I would like to recognise that.

The Minister refers to the Wales Audit Office reports saying they've given leadership, and I'm sure he likes to cite that. He also refers to the robust governance of the programme and sound structures. Could he clarify: is he referring there also to the Wales Audit Office or, on those bits, is he more marking his own homework?

The bit we've seen—I find this insouciance absolutely extraordinary. People who aren't in his bubble listen to him say that there needs to be a referendum and that, 'Of course, any referendum must include remaining in the EU as an option', as if we haven't had a referendum less than three years ago, which he promised to respect the result of but now is doing the opposite. I mean, he argues a bit with Plaid Cymru about which went back on what they promised earlier, but the fact is that they both promised to respect the referendum result, and both of them don't respect the referendum result and are telling people they need to vote again, as if that will solve divisions in our society. We took a decision; you refuse to implement it. Why, if you ask people to vote again, would they expect you to implement it any more next time than you have this time? And you may rightly observe that it's the UK Government at Westminster that bears a particular responsibility for this.

We have heard one face of the Conservative Party speaking today, and I agree with much of what Darren has said. I do wonder, though, what the Minister's assessment is of the probability of our leaving with no deal on 31 October and how that compares with the probability that he'd previously assessed of our leaving on 29 March, because real hard spending decisions follow from his judgment. The First Minister would have us believe that everything has changed and that it's now definitely going to be no deal or almost certainly or very likely, I think as the Minister said. But, actually, the reality in this Conservative leadership contest is that we have Michael Gove saying, 'Oh, well let's stay in until at least the end of 2020', Jeremy Hunt saying it would be political suicide to have no deal, and I don't know if the Minister puts more stress on the promises of Boris Johnson than I do, but he says we'll leave with or without a deal, but that's what 500-odd MPs said when they voted for article 50. It's what Theresa May said over 100 times. How likely does he really think it is that that's going to happen when he's reaching into taxpayers' pockets and trying to make sensible judgments about where to spend that contingency money in preparing?

He said earlier in his statement—. And I don't know how he reads the tea leaves on this, along with Alun Davies; they know much more about how people vote than they do themselves. Perhaps it's a sort of false consciousness: 'Of course the EU referendum had nothing to do with the EU; it was all about austerity.' I mean, very convenient for you, but how do you know that? You say today that the European election showed that probably the majority were wanting us to remain within the EU. I mean, what tendentious way do you get this? Is this sort of adding up all the losers votes and telling them what they all think? Is the Minister actually aware that there has been an exit poll that surveyed 10,000 voters on a representative sample who'd voted in European elections, asked them how they voted in the referendum and 45 per cent said they voted to leave, 50 per cent said they voted to remain—suggesting that turnout was higher amongst remain supporters—but notwithstanding that, that exit poll said that 46 per cent would now vote to remain, while 50 per cent would vote to leave?

Finally, can I ask the Minister: we've heard what Darren has to say, but a fellow doyen of the remain establishment said that when people voted for the Brexit Party—and this was Nick Ramsay, the AM for Monmouth—it reflected the ignorance of voters in Wales; does the Minister agree with him?