As we were approaching the first cliff edge in March we discussed the implications of a 'no deal' exit based on our understanding of the evidence and the extent that governments, the private sector and wider civic society could try to mitigate those impacts. The UK Government's own analysis estimates the UK economy would be between 6.3 per cent and 9 per cent smaller in the long term in a 'no deal' scenario. The starting figure for Wales is, alarmingly, as much as 8.1 per cent smaller, and those figures don't even account for any short-term disruptions, which would be likely to seriously exacerbate the impacts of a 'no deal' scenario.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has warned that food prices could increase permanently, and the British Retail Consortium estimates families could end up paying an additional £1,000 a year for their shopping. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says that a 'no deal' Brexit was gambling with other people's businesses, livelihoods and jobs. We will be disadvantaged, and that will have an impact on business decisions and investment decisions going forward. I am sure that view will have a resonance with automotive workers across Wales. I could go on.

I know the leaders of the 'leave' campaign don't like experts and evidence, but we have a choice. We can listen to reasonable assessments based on the fact that a 'no deal' exit would see an end to frictionless trade, or we could, like the Brexit Party, stick our fingers in our ears and tell ourselves that good times are just around the corner. Llywydd, it's frankly astonishing that, despite the evidence we have on the stark implications of a 'no deal' Brexit, we have this motion before us today, making the same unsubstantiated claims that were mis-sold to the public during the referendum in 2016. It's frankly astonishing that it has only just occurred to Mandy Jones that there are immense problems in trying to negotiate the difficulties we face as we look at Brexit.

This is a motion the Government rejects and I call on the Assembly to do so also. No-one is disputing the fact that a majority in Wales voted to leave the European Union. Many of us tried to find a way of leaving the EU that respected the result of the referendum without decimating our economy. The Welsh Government set out our approach in 'Securing Wales' Future' and took every opportunity to present our evidence-based case to the UK Government and the EU. But, just as no-one disputes the referendum results, no-one surely believes that those voting to leave the EU did so wanting to trash the economy in the way that a 'no deal' outcome would. No-one made the case for 'no deal', no-one voted for 'no deal', 'no deal' has no mandate.

The National Assembly, together with the Scottish Parliament, has rejected a 'no deal' outcome. A majority of Members of Parliament also continue repeatedly to vote against 'no deal'. Those that continue to ignore the reality of the catastrophic consequences of a 'no deal' Brexit are simply acting recklessly with the livelihoods of our citizens and their future security. The Welsh Government will not amend this motion. The position of the Government was clearly expressed in the motion that was passed two weeks ago.

Recent developments in the contest to be the next Tory leader have only further endorsed our position, that by design or default the future Conservative Prime Minister will be taking the UK towards a 'no deal' outcome. Faced with that straight choice between a catastrophic 'no deal' or remaining in the EU, we are unequivocal in backing 'remain' and we continue to call on Parliament to take control of this process and legislate for a referendum as a means of remaining in the European Union.