Part of 2. Questions to the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd – in the Senedd at 2:56 pm on 26 June 2019.
I don't suggest that the Minister is complacent and, clearly, the OBR has a reputation that it has developed, but I'm a little cautious of thinking just because we have the OBR rather than our own commission that necessarily its performance will be better, because we're only funding it to the tune of £100,000 a year and they do not have the specific experience of the Welsh economy and thinking carefully about how Welsh revenue might diverge because it hasn't been necessary to think about that to the same degree before because the issue has not been of the significance that it now will be. So, I just caution the Minister to the extent that her department is primarily driving this and the OBR is coming in and giving its view and giving some views, but that must be a relatively limited given the £100,000 budget compared to the £1.6 million to the Scottish Fiscal Commission.
I ask, going forward, as to the sensitivity of this issue in terms of what the forecast is but also if the tax rates were to be changed, what the impact of that would be, and, in particular, the sensitivities along the border as to whether people might move either physically themselves or the reported income on which they would be paying tax. I know that it's an issue of great significance to Welsh Government and I'm sure you have a number of officials who are working very carefully on this, but it's also of huge significance to other parties in the Assembly, and as we get closer to the upcoming Assembly election, a little under two years, parties will want to think very carefully about what their policies are going to be for their manifesto, and a big input into that will be what those sensitivities are, what the risks around them are, and I just wonder what more the Minister and Welsh Government can do to share and open up the expertise they have in-house to the input of others, but also, perhaps, to give some common assessment on which political parties can talk about the impacts of their proposed tax policies.