Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:27 pm on 26 June 2019.
Well, I'm not sure that everybody in your party believes that, but thank you for the intervention.
We come to this debate too in the knowledge that financial certainty can change overnight. Financial stability at universities depends on this, particularly in relation to borrowing. Now, I understand that the Higher Education Council for Wales plays a regulatory role in this and that, ultimately, lenders would not lend at all under circumstances of a fundamental lack of confidence in certain universities. But we should also admit that the borrowing of some Welsh universities is high in proportion to overall income. In a situation of an economic shock or a sudden and severe decline in student numbers, how vulnerable are we? What about a situation in which loans given on the expectation of a steady income, derived from fees and student loans, are impacted by a reduction in fees and projected income? How will this impact some universities in Wales? These are the realities we need to address. These questions and others are the basis of why we believe we need an urgent and complete financial stability and sustainability review of the whole sector.
The Diamond review was published in September 2016, and there are elements of that that are not yet in place, and the full financial implications of it are not yet felt. But I hear from across many of the sectors that the so-called Diamond dividend is not going to be the magic bullet here—it isn't going to be able to alleviate many of the financial issues now being experienced, because the landscape under which Diamond was produced has already changed.
In my view, we're still some way off experiencing the effects of Brexit. If Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, which seems more and more likely, what will the effects of that be by October, when he has promised to leave the EU come what may? How will Britain's increasingly tarnished and joke status abroad impact international recruitment and the brand of Welsh universities? We already know that the mere prospect of Brexit and the chaos before we've even left have caused a big decline in EU student numbers.
We're experiencing demographic changes and increasing competition from England. Around 40 per cent of Welsh students leave Wales to study elsewhere, worsening our brain drain and the viability of our HE sector, and I believe this needs to be addressed. The Augar review is going to leave parts of Diamond potentially in need of change too, and if that change results in Government change, then we need to understand how that landscape affects Wales, and I'm hopeful that the Welsh Government will tell us how they're going to respond to that particular review.
Just coming on to some aspects of the motion we submitted and the amendments, obviously we will not be supporting the Government amendment. And I understand that the Lib Dem education Minister, with their record on education, particularly when it comes to higher education during the UK Government coalition, will want to be trying to be self-congratulatory. But I think this is too far and doesn't adequately recognise the seriousness of this issue. We will be supporting amendment 4 from Darren Millar.
We believe that there does need to be a wider review of governance arrangements in the Welsh HE sector, which my colleague Helen Mary Jones will touch on further. I note last week what the Minister said regarding her remit letter to HEFCW, but I personally could not find specific reference to conducting a review in that letter. But, having had my researchers ring HEFCW, they've said that they are conducting a general review of arrangements, so perhaps the Minister, in her reply to this debate, can say what specifically that will mean in relation to governance, and how she will be responding to that particular review.
We are calling for the scandal of vice-chancellors' pay to be dealt with finally. It's absolutely preposterous that vice-chancellors get paid more than the Prime Minister. There are arrangements in Scotland in place that help to deal with these issues, but I see no reason why Wales can't deal with it too. We're also pleased to support calls that have been around for a long time from NUS and others for staff and students to be fully involved in decision-making structures at universities, and this would be no surprise coming from me as a former sabbatical officer. The set-up right now isn't sufficient. There needs to be a more inclusive structure written into law, in our view, and a whole partnership approach to higher education in general.
Ultimately, we believe that universities are critical to the fabric of Welsh life and to our economy. There are whole communities, towns and cities immeasurably richer due to their presence. But we do see clouds on the horizon and in our honest opinion—we're all being honest this week, aren't we—we have to truly recognise this and I hope that the Minister does, too.
We've raised these issues in numerous forums in the past, and have been told not to worry so much. I and others believe it needs greater action and urgency. We also believe, as I've called for in the past, this sector is big enough to warrant having a separate Minister for higher education. When we look at the post-16 landscape, the Minister's proposed PCET reforms, I believe this would warrant direct activity by a separate Minister.
So, I reiterate: a sector facing ongoing financial threats and downsizing; a sector potentially, in some areas, over-exposed to borrowing; universities that in some areas are downsizing their very campuses and presence in some parts of Wales. And we have people working in a sector who tell me and others that transparency isn't enough, that governance is not inclusive enough and does not provide the level of strong oversight, vision or direction that the sector desperately needs. Perhaps the regulator would do well to focus on these concerns, as opposed to engaging with me constantly about what the Minister can and cannot respond to here in this very Chamber. The Minister says, and she will say again today, no doubt, that the universities are autonomous, and, yes, we do understand that. But we believe that there can be greater expectations, drive and vision to preferred outcomes. Right now, everyone in Wales, particularly students and staff in the higher education sector, need to be entirely confident for the future. I'm afraid, at this present moment in time, that they are not.