Thank you to Plaid Cymru for bringing forward this debate this afternoon, for the amendments and for the thoughtful and interesting contributions that we've received so far.

This is a very different Parliament to the one that was established in 1999, and as its powers and responsibilities evolve, so does the case for increasing its capacity to create an organisation that’s truly fit for purpose. It's worth beginning by reminding ourselves, as others have already, of the journey so far.

Only five years after the opening of the Assembly, the Richard commission suggested that Wales needed 20 more Members if it was to operate effectively. A decade later, a similar recommendation came from the second part of the Silk commission on devolution. Following this, in 2015, the Assembly Commission agreed unanimously that this place needed more Members if we were to ensure that the cradle of Welsh democracy was to deliver all of its responsibilities and operations effectively.

The Wales Act 2017 gave the Assembly the powers to implement these recommendations for the first time. It isn’t a matter for the Westminster Parliament to make changes of this kind; it’s now in our hands. That development led to the creation of the expert panel on Assembly electoral reform, led by Professor Laura McAllister, which gathered and analysed a range of evidence on how to create a more sustainable Parliament. The work of the panel culminated in a wide-ranging report including recommendations such as lowering the voting age to 16 and increasing the number of Assembly Members to between 80 and 90, alongside reform of the electoral system.

Members will be aware that the Assembly Commission had pursued a programme of electoral reform in light of these recommendations. Part 1 of the programme has already come to fruition, and we have just discussed the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Bill this afternoon. You will also be aware that we had hoped to proceed with part 2, namely the recommendations on increasing the size of the Senedd and reforming the electoral system. The Commission had already consulted the public on these particular issues and received the agreement of a majority of responses. However, last month, it emerged that we could not proceed with part 2 of the programme during this Assembly.

There’s no doubt that the case for more AMs has been argued effectively, but parties are still considering the implications of changing the electoral system. Some parties have a firm policy and some have differences of opinion on that. So, I very much hope that we will soon reach common ground and agreement on an electoral system that can win a supermajority so that we can introduce legislation to achieve this.

Arguing against creating a Parliament with the necessary capacity to serve the people of Wales to the best of its ability is increasingly impossible. There has been a growing consensus amongst the parties and civil society that it is inevitable that there should be more Assembly Members, and I am confident that the vast majority see the rationale for this. Our powers continue to increase, as we’ve heard: on taxation and on Brexit. The commission on justice is also expected to report in the autumn. With the case in favour of increasing the Assembly’s powers in that area also increasing, there’s a real possibility that we need to establish a justice committee to scrutinise the resulting work.

That is a likely flavour of what is to come in future—more responsibilities, more expectation to scrutinise, but the same number of Members and hours in the day. But there is a better way that could be chosen that is more representational. As the expert panel acknowledged in its report, calling for more politicians will never be a popular step, but it would be irresponsible to ignore and refuse to acknowledge the problem of delivery.

International and domestic comparisons highlight the lack of scrutiny capacity. If we look at the number of Assembly Members per head of population, Scotland and Northern Ireland are better off than Wales. In Scotland, there is one MSP for every 42,000 of the population, in Northern Ireland it’s 20,000 of the population. In Wales, we have one Assembly Member for every 52,000 of the population on average. As has already been mentioned, nine of our 22 local authorities have more elected members than our national Parliament. And there are plenty of other examples overseas. The expert panel's report states that if the Assembly had the same number of Members per head of population on average as the 16 European legislatures with similar populations, then we would have 86 Members in this Assembly. If we also included the nine American states with similar populations, we would have 91 Members in this Assembly.