I thank Vikki Howells for raising these points, and particularly the recognition that some of the policies and proposals that have been put forward by both potential new Prime Ministers certainly are not on the progressive end of things, and certainly would benefit those who are richer, and offer nothing for people who are struggling, but then I suppose that is very much where we are in the sense that they're playing to a very narrow gallery. They only need to satisfy the small number of people who are members of the Conservative Party so that they can walk into No. 10. And, clearly, being progressive and trying to introduce policies that will support people who are the hardest pressed, in difficult times, who are bearing the brunt of austerity, is not a priority for them.

We're trying to do some modelling along different paths, looking at things that might happen so that we can get a better understanding of what that means for Wales. So, we're not expecting to know the quantum of our budgets until much later in the year, but we are looking at various scenarios, and they do vary from some favourable conditions to some very stressful ones. And one of the ones that we're modelling is about preparing for a 'no deal' exit from the European Union. In December of last year, we published our latest economic analysis of the UK Government's proposals for EU exit, and that highlighted, in a worst-case scenario, GDP maybe between 7.75 per cent and 10 per cent lower than in May 2016 by the end of 2023, in the event of a disruptive Brexit. This is a more severe contraction than was experienced in the recession that started in 2008. Subsequent analysis from the bank suggests that suitable mitigation preparation could alleviate the worst-case impact somewhat, but it would still be similar in scale to the last recession. So, I can reassure the Member that we are modelling all kinds of possible outcomes, and certainly looking very carefully at the impact that the various promises made by the Conservative prime ministerial candidates might have on Wales.

Vikki Howells is right to identify the fact that we don't have a comprehensive spending review and we don't have a budget for next year as being really at the root of the lack of clarity that we have. So, were we to see a roll-over budget of one year without the additional funding that we've had in year, for example, that would mean, on a like-for-like basis, local authorities would be £111 million worse off on that basis. So, I think the challenges that we're facing are very stark, and the lack of information is just making things difficult.