Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:27 pm on 16 July 2019.
Yet again, Dirprwy Lywydd, we are back to chasing unicorns. We have a situation where appeasing grass-roots Tory supporters is taking precedence over the reality of the negotiations with the European Union. Gaining support of the hardline Brexiteers has been made the top priority, and not the national interest.
The dire consequence of all these factors is that crashing out of the EU without a deal becomes a very real possibility. By design or default, I fear that the next Conservative Prime Minister will take the UK towards a 'no deal' exit, and we have always said that this would be catastrophic for the UK as a whole, but particularly for Wales. And we are not alone in saying this. The list of businesses expressing grave concerns about leaving without a deal ought to be sobering. And more and more experts are highlighting the additional complexity that an October exit date creates. Let me pick out just a few examples for you. The chief executive of Tesco has said that leaving the European Union without a deal on 31 October could lead to problems with stocking shops, with less storage space for stockpiling, given the run-up to Christmas, than there was in March. As a result, he said it will be harder for retailers and manufacturers to build up stocks of goods, making the likelihood of empty shelves so much the greater.
The chief executive of Sainsbury's has warned that a 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October could significantly disrupt the supply of food, toys and electrical goods into the UK ahead of the festive period, saying that 'any hold-up at Britain's ports could be very disruptive to our business’. The National Farmers Union have said, frankly, it's worrying that 'no deal' is being put forward as a plausible scenario by policymakers and our leaders, and has warned that the mass slaughter of sheep may be the consequence. I wholeheartedly agree that 'no deal' should not be seen as a plausible scenario. The normalisation of 'no deal', the idea that it is a reasonable choice, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, is extraordinary.
Make UK, which represents manufacturing and engineering firms, say that there is a direct link between politicians talking up the prospect of 'no deal', and British firms losing customers overseas and British people losing jobs in British firms.
In Wales, we have already seen the impact of this loss of confidence in the UK. Just within the automotive sector, we've seen the devastating job losses and closures announced of Schaeffer, Calsonic and Ford, while more than 2,000 Welsh supply chain jobs are at risk as a result of Honda’s decision to close its plant at Swindon. Continued Brexit uncertainty is damaging the economy right now.