Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:25 pm on 17 July 2019.
Can I begin by thanking David Rees for the way he Chairs the committee? I think it's a monumental task in a most remarkable period of our political history, and we have a very necessary part to play here in Wales, and David's leadership has been instrumental in getting that committee to work with incredible effectiveness and really deep agreement on many, many issues, which, given the passionate views that are held by people, is a remarkable feat.
I have to say, having started on that positive note, I'm very disappointed by the poor attendance of the Welsh Government for this session. I think all the Ministers with the relevant responsibility here should have attended. I'm not sure why they haven't, because to balance my remarks, there's been excellent participation from the Welsh Government in the work of the committee and some high-quality, candid, wise evidence from Government Ministers. So, again, I think it is out of character in terms of the way they've behaved so far in our role in scrutinising their effectiveness as a Government. But, I do think it's appropriate to put those remarks on the record.
I believe that a 'no deal' outcome would be a grave risk. I can't see how any rational person could possibly come to any other conclusion. Even if Brexit becomes more settled in the medium to long term—and it might; you can make those predictions—short-term turbulence would be severe. We've got no right to make decisions that expose the most vulnerable in our society to those risks, far apart from what we might do in a longer term economic capacity in this country. So, I think that needs to be noticed. And it's been a real problem for those who are, beyond rhetoric, committed to a 'no deal' outcome, at least as being held as a prospect. Because the other side simply see it as something that holds very little credibility given the damage it would cause to those that propose it.
There's a danger of triggering a recession with a 'no deal', perhaps even a severe recession. What is certainly the case is that any recession would hit probably hardest in Wales. We are the most exposed part of the British economy. The pound is predicted to fall to parity with the dollar by many analysts. If anyone heard the Radio 4 financial news this morning, it was not a nice way to start your day. That would be a level last seen in the recession of the early 1980s. It would have a big impact on effective income levels in this country as so much of the global economy is enumerated in dollars. We would see our wage rates, in effect, fall quite considerably. As the Chair has said, the lamb, steel, auto and aeronautical sectors face particular challenges, and I commend the work that's been done in particular in these areas and the response of the Welsh Government in trying to prepare as much as it can to soften the impact in those areas.
And in the world after Brexit, UK inter-governmental structures will need reform, a reform that strengthens the union and allows common frameworks to work effectively. I again commend the Welsh Government for its balanced approach. It has conceded where it has considered the UK Government to have been really constructive, and it has also inevitably brought our attention to areas that it considers deficient. But I do think there's a level of genuine goodwill on both sides—both the UK Government and the Welsh Government—in terms of navigating this period and ensuring that we do have structures that are going to be robust for the future.
But I do believe the following situation, or the circumstances that may emerge in the next three months, could be particularly damaging to the union and to Wales. We need to be aware that the next three months will be like no other period potentially in our political history in the last 100 years in peacetime. And that we have to realise—. This is not a normal situation; it's taken three years to get to this stage, but what happens next could be very quick and dramatic.
I think we should rule out now a 'no deal' Brexit and make that clear across the Chamber. How has it become the default position that we could tolerate a 'no deal' Brexit? Whoever voted for it? How many of us heard "'no deal' Brexit" in the referendum campaign? Not a whisper, and plenty of evidence amongst those that proposed ending our relationship with the EU that that would not be the way that divorce would be arranged.
Proroguing Parliament—well, we do have a popular, or at least a character who is regarded by many as popular, and he's referred to as the eighteenth century member. Well, proroguing Parliament would be a seventeenth century measure it seems to me. A Charles I approach to dealing with Parliament. But—