Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:02 pm on 5 September 2019.
As you can imagine, I have spent the summer travelling around the agricultural shows and I've been listening to what people have to say, and I've heard a clear message from farmers and those living in rural areas, particularly many who had voted to leave three years ago: very many of those, having seen what that means, and particularly seeing what faces them through a 'no deal' Brexit, have changed their minds.
They regularly mention the importance of exports. Ninety per cent of the exported lamb goes to the European Union. Seventy two per cent of all Welsh food and drink exports go to the European Union, and securing tariff-free, unhindered access to those markets, the markets nearest to us and the most important and most valuable markets available to us—500 million customers—safeguarding access to that market must be a priority and nothing else.
The agricultural unions have told each and every one of you who have spoken to them in the shows over the summer months what the implications of moving to WTO terms would be: 46 per cent tariffs on lamb; between 46 and 84 per cent on beef exports. And farmers, of course, are eager to maintain high standards in terms of animal welfare and the environmental standards that they currently espouse and they would have to continue to do that if they wanted to safeguard access to the European market, but whilst Boris Johnson complains about people cutting the legs from under him in the Brexit discussions, Welsh farmers would have the legs cut from underneath them in seeing the UK Government coming to trade agreements with the United States, for example, which, in all likelihood, wouldn't meet the same standards, and that would be a double whammy for our farmers. And, of course, every pound going to Welsh farmers from the public purse produces £7. So, think about how much of a loss that will be to our rural communities. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board has modelled a number of Brexit scenarios.