4. What further contingency planning has the Welsh Government undertaken for the people of Islwyn following the publication of the Operation Yellowhammer document? OAQ54347

I thank Rhianon Passmore for that. Yesterday the Welsh Government published our 'no deal' Brexit action plan. It reflects our engagement in Operation Yellowhammer and, for the people of Islwyn, our close working with local partner organisations, including Gwent Police, local authorities and the Gwent local resilience forum.

First Minister, the forced release of the Operation Yellowhammer document confirms what the Welsh Labour Government has been consistently stating publicly for many months, namely that a 'no deal' cliff-edge Brexit could have enormous detrimental consequences for Welsh people, their families and our communities. Amidst the document's pages are non-worst-case-scenario warnings that some fresh supplies of food will decrease, and that critical dependencies for the food chain, such as key ingredients, may be in shorter supply. Further, that UK citizens enjoying their holidays abroad to European Union countries may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border patrols causing serious delays and, critically, medical supply shortages. There may also be a rise—these are not my words—in public disorder and community tensions.

First Minister, these are just some of the Halloween horrors that the Tories are willing to inflict and wanting to inflict on my constituents, even though, as David Cameron has admitted this week, Boris Johnson didn't believe in Brexit and backed the 'leave' campaign only to help his political career. What hope can you give to my constituents in Islwyn that this dystopian future caused by a 'no deal' cliff-edge Tory Brexit can be in any way mitigated by a Welsh Labour Government on their side always?

Llywydd, the document that we published yesterday sets out the many actions that the Welsh Government has been working on over months past to do everything we can to mitigate the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit. The fact that we've developed a 12 to 15-week supply chain of medical devices and clinical consumables, that we have a bank of animal vaccines set up in case there is an outbreak of disease, that we have worked closely with all the major supermarkets about food supplies here in Wales and, in particular, the things that we have done to safeguard the future of vulnerable people in Wales in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit.

The Yellowhammer document sets it out: a 'no deal' Brexit will fall more harshly on the shoulders of those least able to bear that burden than anybody else. There will be rises in food prices, there will be rises in fuel prices, there will be rises in energy prices, and these will be borne by families in Wales who have had their benefits frozen since 2015. And the things that we are doing as a Welsh Government, set out in our action plan, demonstrates our determination to focus upon the most vulnerable in our society in aiming to protect them from the self-inflicted harm that leaving the European Union without a deal would mean.

First Minister, do you accept that the Operation Yellowhammer document is not a prediction of what is likely to happen, but it describes a worst-case scenario for the purposes of Government planning? And do you also recognise that the UK Government in London has stepped up preparation to mitigate any impact of a 'no deal' Brexit for the whole of the United Kingdom, including Wales?

You see, Llywydd, this simply doesn't stand up to examination. Yellowhammer is what the Government describes as a 'reasonable worst case'. It's not the worst-worst case; it's not an exaggerated account of the harm that will come to the United Kingdom. It is what a reasonable person would assess to be the impact of Brexit in a worst case, and we are heading into that worst case. And any idea—any idea—that this UK Government has been working hard in a way that will simply mitigate and wipe away the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit—they don't believe it, I can tell you that. They don't believe it at all and neither should anybody here.

First Minister, I'm particularly concerned with the supply of drugs and medicine to those who need them post Brexit. [Interruption.] How did I know you'd all—?

Let's hear the reason for the concern.

Thank you. There appear to be claims, counter-claims and claims again about security of supplies. Can you please allay the fears, the real fears that many constituents have because of all these things that people keep saying, and confirm that your Government has secured the medicine it needs to keep the Welsh NHS working, mitigating all the stress that people are listening to?

Well, Llywydd, let's be clear with Mandy Jones and other Members here that medicines that we rely on here in Wales come through the short straits and that the UK Government in its own predictions say that EU-UK traffic could fall by 40 to 60 per cent between Calais and Dover in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit. That's why we have had to take the actions that we have taken to try to mitigate the impact that that would have on the supply of medicines here in Wales. It's inevitable—it's not a matter of shaking heads and sounding as though this is some sort of ideological point, it's an intensely practical issue: if those ports cannot bring in the supplies of medicines as they do today, there will be an impact on the availability of those medicines in the United Kingdom. And there are some medicines on which we rely that can't afford to sit and wait in a queue because they have short shelf lives, and that's particularly true of radioisotopes in the treatment of cancer. That's why there is a plan with the UK Government to get around the ports issue by flying those supplies into the United Kingdom. But if those supplies arrive at an airport and then there is logistical chaos because the lorries you're relying on are caught in a queue somewhere in Kent or aren't able to move back from the continent in the way that was expected, there's no guarantee that anybody can offer that those plans will deliver everything as they are today. Who would possibly embark on this course of self-harm? This is not inevitable—this could be stopped. It ought to be stopped, and then we wouldn't be having these conversations.

I think, reading through the document that the UK Government was forced to release by the courts, you understand why the UK Government didn't want the public to see this. I'm reminded of Aneurin Bevan when he told us:

'How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power?'

This is a document that describes the impact of Brexit on the poorest people of this country. It describes the impact of 'no deal' on the sick, on the vulnerable. It describes how the people who can barely afford to buy food today and rely on foodbanks will see increases in food prices and a reduction of access to fresh food. This is a document that the UK Government sought to keep secret. It is also, First Minister, of course, a document that doesn't mention Wales. Devolved administrations are mentioned in the penultimate paragraph in terms of fishery protection. There is nothing here, yet the UK Government, you would have hoped, would understand that many of the matters here are the responsibility of the Welsh Government. Many of the responsibilities in dealing with these matters are the responsibility of the Welsh Government. And, First Minister, can you reassure us that the United Kingdom Government understands in any way the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit on the poorest people in this country? And can you reassure us, First Minister, that this Welsh Labour Government will continue to stand up for people in communities up and down this country?

Well, Llywydd, I thank Alun Davies for that question. I hear Members around the Chamber who persuaded people in Wales to leave the European Union now trying to deny the impact that that will have in their lives, and there is no denying it. If you read Yellowhammer, it is as clearly set out there as you could wish. People who live on the smallest incomes in our society spend a larger proportion of their incomes securing the basics of everyday life: food, energy, fuel. It takes a far higher proportion of their incomes than it does people in this Chamber. They will have to find money to deal with the consequences of Brexit, and they will be the least able people to do that. I can give Alun Davies an absolute assurance—I attended a meeting of the latest UK committee myself last week: I pointed to that paragraph in Yellowhammer, I asked the UK Government what plan it had to put money into the pockets of those families in Wales and in the United Kingdom whose incomes have been held down, who have seen prices rising and will now be asked to pay the cost of a 'no deal' Brexit. It's their responsibility to do that; it's the very least that they should do to protect those most vulnerable people.