Questions Without Notice from Party Spokespeople

Part of 1. Questions to the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd – in the Senedd at 2:00 pm on 18 September 2019.

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Photo of Mark Reckless Mark Reckless Conservative 2:00, 18 September 2019

But if the OBR is not tasked, at least yet, by UK Government with doing forecasts on a UK basis, how will it be doing those Wales forecasts? Has it got a model of the Welsh economy and will be looking at Wales in isolation, or will it be doing a UK forecast despite not being tasked with that by the UK Government and then applying a variance for Wales? And will the Minister say a little more about what her team are doing and the resources that she has to support that liaison with the OBR? Because it is the Welsh Treasury that is responsible for making those forecasts, and then the OBR will test and validate them, and this is new work for her and her department. For instance, we saw earlier today that house price inflation in Wales was higher than any of the other nations and regions of the UK. Why is that? Does Welsh Government expect that to persist, because that will have an impact on revenue? Similarly, employment growth in Wales and wage growth in Wales—how does Welsh Government expect that to compare with the UK and why, since our revenues and ability to support spending will rest on those judgments, albeit validated, we hope, by the OBR?