Part of 1. Questions to the First Minister – in the Senedd at 1:54 pm on 1 October 2019.
Perhaps if we look back at what's already happened, it might give us an idea of what more is to come. The UK economy has underperformed relative to other major economies since the decision to call the EU referendum was announced in 2015. Since the referendum itself, GDP is estimated to be between one and two percentage points lower than would have been otherwise the case, and for illustrative purposes, that's between £300 and £600 per person per year in Wales. The Member refers to the Bank of England, and they have provided an updated forecast for the economy in August, which focuses more on the nearer-term outlook. Over the next 12 months, the bank expects only modest growth in GDP, so just 1.5 per cent, and businesses—the Bank of England argues it, not me—will prove reluctant to invest against a background of Brexit-related concerns, and, of course, alongside that, net exports are not expected by the bank to contribute materially to growth. So, we're always keen to hear what the Bank of England has to say, but unfortunately for Mark Reckless, none of it will be good news to him.