We have always been clear that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be catastrophic for Wales, and we make no apologies for describing it in that way. The statements this afternoon demonstrate the vast array of short-term, negative consequences across all aspects of Welsh life, whilst devastating the economy in the longer term.

Before moving on to consider the positive actions that we are taking, let’s take stock for a moment about whether 'no deal' remains likely or not. In January, when we provided Assembly Members with an in-depth review of our ‘no deal’ preparations, I’m sure none of us would have imagined that the political situation in the UK, and the constitutional situation, would be in such turmoil. In his first two months in power, Boris Johnson has lost seven major votes in the Commons, lost his working majority, broken the law by trying to suspend Parliament, and has misled the monarch. And he continues to claim that he will take the country out of the EU by 31 October. However, there is an Act on the statute book to prevent that, unless the UK Parliament agrees on a means of exiting. Boris Johnson’s statement on his intention to take the country out of the EU on 31 October, with or without a deal, suggests that he does not intend to comply with the requirements of the legislation.

With just a fortnight to go until the European Council summit, it doesn’t seem likely that we will have time to reach agreement. First of all, the EU has been consistently clear that they will not agree to a new set of arrangements for withdrawal without them having the same impact as the backstop in the Theresa May agreement. As recently as last week, Michel Barnier said,

'The new Government of the UK wants us to get rid of the backstop and wants the EU to change the way the internal market and border controls operate after Brexit. I’m sure you will understand’, he said,

‘that this is unacceptable. Based on current UK thinking, it’s difficult to see how we can arrive at a legally operative solution which fulfils all the objectives of the backstop’.

Even were there support for a fourth meaningful vote, does anyone truly believe that the UK Parliament would pass the necessary legislation to pass the withdrawal agreement Bill in less than a fortnight? Given this, there is a very good chance that we will not see an agreement reached, and we will have to request an extension, as is mandated in law. But an extension will need unanimous agreement from each of the 27 member states of the European Union. We should not fall into the trap that so many politicians and media commentators have fallen into in believing that the final decision rests in our hands. And even if granted, in the worst-case scenario, an extension could only delay the risk of a ‘no deal’ exit for a few months. So, while we have a UK Government that insists on downplaying the scale of the challenges that leaving the EU poses, and whist we have a Prime Minister in the UK who is prepared to defy the law, the risk of a deeply damaging 'no deal' remains.

I know that we will hear plenty of complaints and inconsiderate contributions today about project fear, but the Bank of England has proven that the decision to leave the EU has already cost the economy £80 billion—more than £1,000 for every single person living in this country. And all the evidence that I have seen, including evidence from the UK Government itself, shows that a 'no deal' should be unthinkable. In the short term, a 'no deal' would cause significant disruption, increase the risk of financial instability and threaten the supply of vital goods and services that many in society depend upon. In the longer term, a 'no deal' would permanently damage the economy, damage our international reputation, and depress livings standards across the country to levels not seen since the Conservative Government recklessly destroyed the industrial base in Wales in the 1980s.

We have been clear in our position, and we have evidence to support it: to secure a brighter future for Wales, we must remain within the EU, and we therefore support a second referendum to achieve that aim.