Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:33 pm on 1 October 2019.
Can I thank Russell George for his contribution and his questions? I think, first of all, let's just reflect on the fact that the only certainty that would be generated through crashing out of the EU is the certainty of economic catastrophe, with widespread job losses, the value of the economy shrinking rapidly, and deep uncertainty, not just for months, but for many years to come. The best solution is the solution that has been articulated through 'A brighter future for Wales'. And in terms of those exciting new trade deals that we've been promised by chief Brexiteers, well, there's been a huge amount of speculation this week over what might happen if the World Trade Organization rules against the EU, and businesses within the EU, and how President Trump may respond. And the speculation is that if the decision is taken against us in Europe, then President Trump will seek to impose massive tariffs on goods and services from the UK. Can we really trust somebody, who is willing and wanting to do that, to establish the best possible trade deal for the United Kingdom? I believe not. And therefore, our best interests remain in staying in the EU.
In terms of where the Welsh economy is right now, and Russell George did reflect on the fact that we have record employment, record low inactivity, that we've got a record number of businesses now established in Wales, that we have a record number of headquarters of businesses in Wales—well, we should not sacrifice this achievement in order to, as they put it, 'Get Brexit done'. There is a huge amount to be lost if negotiations go wrong, if we crash out of the EU, or indeed if the wrong deal were to be implemented. And that is why I am firmly of the belief that the solution contained within 'A brighter future for Wales' is the only solution that should now be considered for the United Kingdom.
In terms of job losses, well, if we look at some of the decisions that have been taken recently, Brexit has been a constant part of the problem in terms of the operating environment that businesses find themselves in—deep uncertainty, a lack of clarity as to what the future may hold. And Members will not be surprised that a number of businesses in Wales, and just across the border of Wales, have said that, if a 'no deal' Brexit occurs, then they will be seeking to move their operations out of the United Kingdom. A lot has been said about Vauxhall—and I know that it's not in Wales, but Members will be interested to know that Vauxhall in Ellesmere Port employs around about 400 people—400 people—who live within Wales. And Vauxhall, which of course is now part of the PSA Group, is regularly referenced as a place where a new model decision for the Ellesmere Port plant will be directly linked to the outcome of Brexit negotiations. Here in south Wales we have the food business OP Chocolate, who have gone on record as saying that they are fearful of a 'no deal' Brexit, because, in a worse-case scenario, they could lose up to £5 million of business due to tariffs. Not far away, in Blaenau Gwent, Continental Teves UK Ltd have expressed their concern over potential flight or closure. Again, issues that relate directly to Brexit, the uncertainty of negotiations that we believe are not yet taking place fully, and the ongoing potential crashing out of the EU.
In terms of managing the UK economy, and the approach that has been outlined by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, I think there are some exceptionally interesting proposals that have been introduced, which I would fully support. We know from France that productivity improvements have been directly linked to reducing the length of the working week, because people are able to give more, and contribute more, in the time that they are in work. In terms of the approach to inclusive growth, I would warmly welcome it, because, as we have managed the Welsh economy in recent years—and it's performed exceptionally well—we have seen that the economic contract is driving inclusive growth, and that the calls to action are driving responsible, sustainable business growth—both of these initiatives designed to deliver for the greater good.
We don't know what outcome there may be for Wales in the announcement made by the Chancellor just this week—indeed, whether we will get a penny of the rehashed announcement that was made at the party conference. But I do note that only £250 million of that £25 billion announcement is attributed to bus services across the UK. And right across the length and breadth of the country, bus services are in a very fragile position, and, based on my assessment, require far more than £250 million in order to get through the uncertainties of Brexit and the problems associated with deregulation.
What I would say, regarding business support—in response to Russell George's question about business engagement—is that, to date, we estimate that almost 40,000 businesses have accessed the Busines Wales Brexit portal, and around 1,000 businesses have undergone the full self-assessment process.