4. Statement by the Minister for Economy and Transport: Preparing the economy in Wales for a 'no deal' Brexit

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:56 pm on 1 October 2019.

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Photo of Ken Skates Ken Skates Labour 3:56, 1 October 2019

Well, I'm always happy to take lectures on the law from Mick Antoniw, given his expertise in this field, and I think today he has articulated the terrible likely consequences of a bad deal with the United States under the current soon-to-be impeached President of that land. In terms of the Trade Bill, I'm sure that the Minister for International Affairs and the Welsh Language will be able to give an update on the status of that particular Bill, but it's my understanding that it currently is on ice, with not much likelihood of it being progressed any time soon.

In terms of what a trade deal with the United States could do to Wales, well, it's my view that a trade deal would essentially be a plundering operation for US interests of our most valued assets, principally the national health service, and this is something that we should absolutely rule out entirely. There would also be consequences in terms of our food and drink sector, which have been very well explored within the media, as well as for many other parts of public services and the public sector.

In terms of the consequences of crashing out of the EU with no significant trade deals in place, well, of course, we would then revert to WTO rules, which could lead to the Welsh economy shrinking significantly, and the figure of 9 per cent has already been presented to the Chamber today, but there would be certain sectors that would be particularly hard hit, and those certain sectors are very, very significant within Wales. We estimate that the consequence of crashing out of the EU without a deal could lead to as many as 30 per cent of the jobs in one particular local authority area of Wales, that being Flintshire, being at medium to high risk of going. Now, if it's 30 per cent there, it's probably 30 per cent just over the border, and I've already outlined the position that Vauxhall are in, and, right across the England-Wales border, we could see significant jobs being lost that would affect our economy as well. Within Wales, after Flintshire, the next highest local authority area to be classed as having medium to high-risk job losses would see around about 20 to 25 per cent of jobs potentially going. This is catastrophic for the Welsh economy and for our communities.