In addition to medicines, there are hundreds of thousands of products that the NHS relies upon each day. These include everything from dressings and bandages to gloves, syringes, needles and much more. For these medical devices and clinical consumables, we continue to work closely with NHS Wales to increase the amount of stock that we hold. From the start, our planning has included provision for key items used by social care providers too, as well as the national health service. So far, this overall additional stock holding has cost over £5 million.

There is no evidence to suggest, as Lesley Griffiths has said, that there will be an overall shortage of food, but a 'no deal' Brexit will lead to a reduction in the choice and availability of some foods imported from the EU. The British Retail Consortium have been very clear on this point. To prepare, we've asked health and social care organisations to consider how meals could be adapted if the availability of some ingredients is limited, without, of course, compromising on nutritional standards.

A major concern for me has always been the potential impact of Brexit on our workforce, not just in the provision of services, but this goes to the heart of who we are as a nation. We could not deliver our health and care services without staff from Europe and across the world. I place the same value on all of our staff, regardless of their country of origin, and I continue to reinforce this message in public and to the UK Government. It is a source of unbelievable frustration to me that the UK Government continues to promote restrictions on recruiting staff that would do undeniable harm to health and care services and, of course, to the vulnerable people who rely upon them.

We have not yet seen a significant departure of EU nationals from employment in health and social care here in Wales, but other parts of the UK have. We're seeing a reduction in overseas recruitment, which will have a serious effect in the medium term if it continues. We may also see health and care staff moving to jobs in other sectors, some of which have already seen significant losses of EU nationals.

Whilst the direct implications of Brexit—and particularly a 'no deal' Brexit—are already significant and wide-reaching, there are other more indirect impacts that could have direct, serious consequences for health and care providers. For example, the cost of food, fuel and medicines are likely to increase in a 'no deal' scenario as a result of reduced supply and a weaker pound. This would impact especially on organisations in the social care sector. Across Wales, 1,275 care home providers deliver care and support to more than 26,000 people. A third of those providers are small businesses with fewer than six beds. Many would find price rises difficult to absorb, and these increases would affect other services that play a crucial role in meeting people’s care and support needs, such as meals on wheels and day centres.

Price rises would, of course, hit some parts of our workforce particularly hard, for example domiciliary care staff. This would be a real and unjust example of how a 'no deal' would disproportionately impact on people in lower income groups and more vulnerable groups. That, of course, is set out clearly in the Yellowhammer document that was released by the UK Government.

If we see the scale of job losses predicted following a 'no deal' Brexit, this would lead to an increased demand for health and care services, particularly mental health support. Whilst it is difficult to quantify, we can expect an increase in cost and time to access treatment as we simply don’t have the number of professionals needed to respond to the anticipated level of demand.

It is a continuing source of further frustration to me that Brexit preparations are diverting so much energy and resource from other important areas. Our estimate is that there are the equivalent of between 50 and 100 full-time posts dedicated to 'no deal' readiness across health and care in Wales—enough to run a significant number of medium-sized general practices in Wales instead. Brexit preparedness draws heavily on the time of leaders and managers at all levels of our organisations. These people should be working on other priorities to improve the services we provide for the people of Wales, instead of preparing for the potential of a 'no deal' Brexit, which, as I've said, is the worst possible Brexit outcome and the Brexit outcome that will cause the greatest amount of harm. I am, however, grateful to all of the staff working in health and care services for their professionalism and commitment in preparing for the possibility of a 'no deal' Brexit. We have worked hard to protect the interests of the public and patients in Wales and we'll continue to do all that we can to assess the impacts of leaving the EU and to ensure that we are as prepared as we reasonably can be. We'll continue to do all that we can to prevent the UK Government from leading us to a disastrous 'no deal' Brexit, which will inevitably hit Wales harder than other parts of the UK.