We now move to the short debate. If Members are going out, can they go quickly, quietly, please? Just a minute, Mark. Right, if Members are going out, please go now. I'm about to call the short debate and I call Mark Reckless to speak on the topic he has chosen—Mark. 

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. I think this is my second speech on the trot. I'm talking about bus services in Wales, and, before we declared a climate change emergency, a key public policy reason to support buses was to reduce congestion. And I first understood a key aspect of this properly when I heard from Nigel Winters, who was, at least then—he may still be—the managing director of Stagecoach in Wales.

Perhaps this was a lobbying e-mail I received, I don't know, but it was certainly very useful in that he referred to the average speed of buses in Wales having reduced by 7 per cent in the past two years—and this was early last year, he wrote to me. And he observed that, for every 10 per cent decrease in operating speed, this led to an 8 per cent rise in operating costs for buses, and that 8 per cent increase in costs, in turn, led to an estimated 5.6 per cent fall in customer numbers. I quote what he says: 'not tackling traffic congestion will lead to a situation where less people are inclined to take the bus further increasing the number of cars on the road and resulting in even worse traffic congestion, which has an even more damaging impact on the environment and all road users.'

So, as well as having buses that we want people to use to reduce congestion, the effect of that congestion, in turn, can be to reduce bus usage, because those buses slow down, they become more expensive to operate, and, if prices go up— and the average fare had increased by 6 per cent in the year to March 2018, and I think went up 3.6 per cent in the following year—that, in turn, reduces bus usage further. It's a vicious circle.

I should add at this stage, though, that, as well as congestion, there are other social and economic reasons that are as important for users of bus services. Many are elderly or mobility impaired and I fear that a lack of bus services may cause them to be isolated or to lose their independence. The charity Bus Users Cymru has highlighted that bus transport is vitally important in helping older people to maintain their independence and well-being.

One constituent of mine, Carol Gulliford from Torfaen, told the South Wales Argus that, if services that she uses are cut, she would have to rely on other people and she worries that she won't be able to

'get out and see people and...go to the shops. I won't be able to do anything for myself'.

The same lady highlighted how services affect others:

'Lots of people up this way use it to go to the shops or to go to work.'

'My daughter relies on the bus to take her children to school in the mornings and pick them up at the end of the day.'

'She's got a three-year-old so walking isn't really an option.'

For many, buses are also essential from a financial perspective, as alternatives such as taxis are costly. Darren Shirley, from the Campaign for Better Transport, highlights how many others use the public transport network for access to employment, education and training, and concerns that this could be hindered if bus services are not supported. It can't be underestimated how much these services mean to people in their everyday lives.

I recently presented a petition from the Ebbw Fawr business community to the Petitions Committee, and I'm grateful that they have accepted it. It was gathered by Richard Taylor, who, coincidentally is the Brexit Party candidate for Torfaen—for Blaenau Gwent, pardon me—he was working with Stephen Roberts, who chairs the Ebbw Fawr business community, and there's a particular issue: the impact on the traders of a reduction in bus services.

I think the bus service frequency into Ebbw Vale town centre has halved and I've spoken to constituents who talk about the impact that's had on their social lives, in terms of them being able to get out and about, but it's had a very substantial impact also on the business community in Ebbw Vale. I hope that the Minister may be able to update us on some of what he said previously in response to my colleague David Rowlands about what was happening in Ebbw Vale and a desire to run pilot schemes there of the demand-responsive bus service of which I've previously spoken about—the operation of that in Newport. I wonder: is this a service that can bring new users into using buses and provide a service where there was previously none, or is it, less positively, something that is a sticking plaster for areas where bus services are being cut, whether because of funding pressures or congestion issues, and it is an alternative to that, rather than an addition?

Before I address the White Paper and possible legislation, I'd just like to contrast what Nigel Winter wrote to me, which was early last year, with some evidence that I've seen since around bus services and how they're doing, because, for the 2017-18 data, there are signs of a stabilisation in bus usage. We had 99.9 million passenger journeys, and that was 99.1 million vehicle kilometres. So, what that implies is the average length of a journey in kilometres is approximately the same as the average number of people who are on the bus. Looking at the data, we actually see, since 2014-15, broad stability in passenger numbers in Wales, and that compares to a steep decline in 2008-09, but then a decline that continued more gently, but still significantly, through to 2014-15. Bus passenger numbers were almost 130 million, and, since 2014-15, they've hovered between 99 million and 100 million.

So, I wonder if the Minister can discern any reason for why that decline levelled off in 2014-15. It may be, particularly as we're in an election period, he may emphasise wonderful things that Welsh Government has been doing, and I don't rule out that there may have been some positive initiatives, but I wonder whether he would also give some more dispassionate thought to that, because it's only if we understand why bus usage has declined and then why we've had this plateau that we will be able to make the right decisions to improve bus usage going forward.

I'd also note that I've had some further data to the end of 2018, on this occasion. For the fourth quarter of last year, we saw a 2.8 per cent increase in bus passengers in Wales, and that was the third quarter in a row we'd seen an increase. And, consistent with a plateau since 2014-15, we only saw a decline in Wales over the five years of 0.3 per cent, and that compares to an 11 per cent decline in Scotland, a 7.4 per cent decline in London, a 6.9 per cent fall in English metropolitan areas, and a 5.2 per cent in the English shires. So, in terms of trajectory, there has been some improvement since 2014-15.

However, I think what we also need to recognise is that the overall level of bus usage in Wales is substantially less than it is in England and Scotland. The number of journeys per head of population is in the low 30s in Wales, compared to between 70 and 80 in England and Scotland. So, I'd like to ask the Minister—. He referred in a late September statement this year to the general peripherality—that's a word I haven't heard before used in that context—and dispersal populations of Wales's regions. Is that the reason behind it, or are there other issues as well, particularly in the southern part of Wales, in Newport through to Swansea, Llanelli? Could we not be doing better in terms of how much people use the bus, particularly to commute to work, and are there lessons from other parts of the UK for us in that?

So, the Minister has a significant legislative agenda. He published the White Paper on 10 December last year, and it's nice to see Russell George in his seat still, because the Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee—we published our response, I think, to the White Paper in June 2019. Since then, the Minister, on 11 July, summarised consultation responses, and on 24 July he put out the update on a public transport (Wales) Bill and wider bus reform. In that, he referred to the imminent publication of a draft regulatory impact assessment for the Bill. I asked my researcher to find that draft RIA, and had it been published imminently as promised, and, as I said, there was a statement on 24 July. And he went away and looked at all the publications since to see if that document had come out, and he couldn't find it. So, I just wondered whether that publication hadn't happened. We then checked further and found that the publication was actually on 18 July. So, when the Minister told us the publication was imminent, it had actually come out six days previously, which is a reversal of the way these things usually are for Government.

We had though, on 24 September, a different report, and this focused on rail: 'Principles for Public Transport Connectivity'. And I was a little surprised that the focus of that was on rail when it was about public transport connectivity. Surely, we need to be bringing these two processes for rail and bus together, rather than separating them in the way that they are dealt with. If the Minister will just forgive me for a moment—. So, in that document, Minister, you said:

'The principles set out below relate fixed corridor connectivity, usually by rail but perhaps in future bus type vehicles operating on dedicated/segregated infrastructure.... Our wider vision for local bus services...I set out in July.'

And it's that separation that I would question. Later in that September document you refer to the importance of regional interchanges, but they seem to be defined largely in terms of rail, and you refer in south-east Wales, my regional bit—it's more broadly done here—to Pontypridd, Caerphilly, Bridgend, Cardiff Bay, Cardiff Queen Street, Cardiff Parkway, which we don't yet have, as the regional interchanges. Why not Newport? We have a rail interchange of a sort that's becoming more important in Newport, and I would certainly hope it will be a major interchange for buses, and I trust there will be a real focus on that integration, which we need to boost use of public transport more generally.

You also said in that September document:

'These are not promises. They are not commitments. No funding has been allocated. But they do inform our direction of travel. They inform others of our ambitions. And, most importantly, they signal that Wales that is open to visitors and to business.'

I wish you'd taken that same approach with the M4 relief road. But rather than to dwell on that, I would just note that afterwards you say this is a 20-year plan. Previously, you've described it as 'principles', and I just think it's really important to understand what this is. Of course, you can't make promises when you don't have the funding. You've got Transport for Wales; I think there's potential promise with the approach you're taking. I do want to be as supportive as possible, but I think there is a real need for clarity between what's an objective, what's a plan, what's an ambition and what's an aspiration. And, obviously, you don't want to promise things that you then don't achieve, but similarly, I think we need clarity as to what is a planning document and what is not.

You put considerable emphasis—. In the White Paper, you refer to a general decline in passenger numbers, falling steadily for many years on most routes and, again, I'd just emphasise that that hasn't been the case since 2014-15, and we have to look at what's caused that change and how we can build on that. You also put considerable emphasis in the White Paper on the Transport Act 1985 deregulating local bus services in the UK outside of London. Of course that was an important event, but we've moved on 34 years, and I would just caution against expecting everything to be different, because we've devolved competence and we're going to legislate in a different way and give other options to local authorities and, somehow, that's going to change the landscape of bus provision. Clearly, that deregulation was important, but removing the legislative requirement for it won't necessarily bring us back to a regulated or franchised system in the way we saw before. London is also very different from the rest of the UK, and society has changed very significantly over the 34 years.

I support what you do in the White Paper and the three options you have. I think it's a good idea to give more options to local authorities and allow them to develop those options and show good practice and others can learn from them. I just wonder, though, how much difference we will see with these enhanced quality partnerships. They may shift the balance somewhat from the bus company to the local authority, but will that lead to an improvement in services? The jury is out. Similarly with bus franchising, I'm not clear whether the Minister expects some local authorities to franchise over the whole area and replace the current system with a franchise to the system, or is it more likely that this will happen in specific areas where that approach would be of particular benefit? I also question, do local authorities have the capability, the people, the systems, for running a franchise competition of such scale and importance? Would there not be a real danger that if we do move to a franchise system in a full local authority, the move from one system to another may, at a minimum, have teething problems for the people who are involved?

Your third option of local authority bus services, I've no problem with the odd local authority running the odd bus. And there have been some complaints about areas that they don't feel they're getting good bids from private providers to run, and the possibility of the local authority being able to do it may give a measure of competition that might not otherwise be there. However, again, I say: do the local authorities have that level of capability, are they set up to do it, and how widescale does the Minister think that will happen?

Finally, he refers to statutory joint committees from the local government Bill. Can I just clarify are those what we were previously calling regional joint transport authorities? And has the Minister any further thoughts as to whether the national JTA is necessary, since there was some concern that would be a duplicating body that was one more than we needed? I look forward to his response.

Thank you. Can I now call the Minister for Economy and Transport to reply to the debate? Ken.

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. Can I begin by thanking Mark Reckless for bringing forward this debate today? It's a hugely important issue; bus services concern an enormous amount of not just my time as Minister for transport, but also the time of many, many Assembly Members in this Chamber. And there is no doubt that bus services are central to everything that we do in terms of trying to integrate and improve public transport. We know that they're an essential form of transport for a huge number of people in many communities, and in some communities, they are the only form of public transport that's available. And even in our car-reliant society, there is still almost a quarter of households in Wales that do not own a car and are therefore reliant on public transport, principally local bus services.

Now, reliable bus services are, in turn, vital in connecting people to jobs, in connecting people to family members, and in ensuring that people have access to goods and services. They drive economic growth—particularly important in rural areas. Buses have the potential to contribute, I think, very significantly to achieving our well-being goals for Wales. But there is no doubt that improving bus services and driving up patronage across the country requires action and collaboration across Governments, with operators right at the heart of considerations as well.

Now, I've already developed our vision for bus and community transport against a background of future trend predictions for Wales, which foresee a significant growth in the number of single-person households with private vehicles remaining the dominant mode of transport for those who can afford it. But we will need, at the same time, a significant change, whether through a modal shift to public transport or to electric private vehicles if we're to deliver on our obligations and commitments to ensure sustainability for future generations. So, action is therefore clearly required to harness the unique quality of buses and their ability to quickly respond to change with lower levels of investment required than other forms of public transport, particularly lower levels of investment required in infrastructure to support bus services. They also offer a relatively low cost per passenger and a low carbon footprint. But to achieve the vision that I've already outlined and that Mark Reckless has pointed to, we need a mix of, I believe, place-based interventions, including, for example, better bus stops, better passenger journey information and those hubs, those interchanges that I talked of, so that we get true integrated public transport system that offers reliability, comfort and punctuality for passengers.

Bus priority measures are hugely important and Mark Reckless has identified the need for bus services to operate in a timely and reliable fashion. We have found that the number one reason that determines whether somebody chooses to take a bus or their car is whether a bus is reliable and punctual and offers the ability to get to their destination in less time than their private motor vehicle. And, so, to this end, we are investing very heavily indeed in dedicated bus lanes and in bus corridors and we're piloting demand-responsive transport schemes. Mark Reckless has identified the scheme that will be rolled out in Blaenau Gwent—that's the south-east Wales pilot. I know that Transport for Wales is engaging with the local authority and with bus operators to finalise the scope of the pilot, but consideration will be given to extending this particular scheme into Torfaen.

Mark Reckless asked the question of whether such pilots—demand-responsive pilots—will likely lead to people who have previously relied on their car to actually leave the keys at home and use those new innovative services. Now, where we've seen similar schemes operating in the UK, we've been able to appreciate that there has been a significant modal shift. I recently attended the Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee and I pointed to one specific scheme in south Liverpool that has seen that around 52 to 53 per cent of users of that demand-responsive bus service actually were people who have never used the bus service in that area before; they are leaving their cars at home. So, it does offer great potential to increase patronage very significantly across the bus network.

The question was raised about why we now have a plateau in terms of patronage, and our understanding is that there are numerous factors that determine whether people choose to take the bus rather than to drive, and principally, it's about reliability. Well, we've been investing very heavily in bus corridors in key urban areas in the past few years. We also, in the aftermath of the collapse of a very prominent bus company back in 2016, introduced a stabilisation plan for the industry with a number of actions that were taken forward. And, so, as a consequence of the quite intense work that's been undertaken, not just by Welsh Government but by local authorities as well across Wales, we've been able to stabilise the number of people that are using bus services across Wales. But if we really want to fuel the renaissance of the bus industry and to lift bus patronage back to where it used to be and, even further, to levels elsewhere in the UK, we have to take action in the form of legislation. And I intend to introduce the buses Bill before the Assembly next year, in order to address directly what has been an utter disaster in the form of deregulation for bus services. That took place in 1986, and I don't think anybody would argue that it has been beneficial, in entirety, for passengers across the country. 

It will offer a suite of tools, and it will enable local authorities to intervene, should they choose to do so, in the provision of bus services. And to the question regarding the franchise system, the corporate joint committees will be designed to ensure that transport planning is undertaken on a cross-border basis and on a regional basis, and they are also intended to build capabilities and capacity across local authorities in each of the regions where the CJCs will operate. 

I believe that bus reform cannot be seen in isolation, and the next step is to weigh and measure how far we go with our agenda to facilitate a modal shift to public transport. And we will need political and financial buy-in across Government and beyond. We're going to need the public; we're going to need Government operators and politicians to work with us to make our vision of a modern, low-carbon public transport network a reality, and I'm glad that we've had this opportunity today to cover a vitally important issue for many, many people across all of our constituencies. The Member, Mark Reckless, has raised a number of significant issues in the Chamber. I'll gladly update him on each of the areas that I'm not able to respond to in the time that I've got. But, again, I'd like to thank Mark Reckless and Members for showing such a keen interest in this particular subject matter. 

Thank you very much. That brings today's proceedings to a close. 

The meeting ended at 18:41.