It's worth pointing out that our trade negotiations with the EU will be unprecedented, as they'll ultimately lead to increasing barriers to trade, rather than removing them. All scenarios envisaged by the Tories lead to increased friction with our closest and most important trading partner. And all the credible evidence shows that the benefits associated with ambitious trade agreements with the US, Australia and New Zealand combined will in no way compensate for the reduction in trade with the EU. We recognise the benefits and opportunities of new trade deals, but our immediate priority must be to minimise the impact of new barriers to trade with the EU.

So, this brings me to the second key issue. We need to be open and transparent about trade-offs associated with each trade deal—the trade-offs between multiple negotiations taking place in parallel. Choices will have to be made, and there will be winners and losers.

Within individual negotiations, we must not to lose sight of the interests of consumers, as well as producers. In some cases, the benefits for consumers of lower prices would outweigh the risks to uncompetitive sectors, for which a phased period of adjustment could be negotiated. In others, the need to sustain jobs and protect employers from predatory practices in other countries will clearly be paramount. We also need to balance our economic interests from our wider responsibilities under the well-being of future generations Act, and we want to ensure that we promote, not undermine, environmental and labour market standards and global action to tackle the climate change emergency.

One clear trade-off between different trade negotiations is the degree to which the UK prioritises a close trading relationship with the EU against an ambitious trade deal with the US. Each will seek alignment with their regulations, such as for food safety. So, continued alignment with the EU could limit the economic cost to the UK and maintain the integrity of the UK internal market. On the other hand, aligning with the US will have a higher economic cost and risks fragmentation of the UK internal market as well as the potential of weakening the union.  

We've been clear that the evidence overwhelmingly points to prioritising our relationship with the EU as our most important trading partner. This reflects a broad consensus amongst businesses and academics. It also recognises the twin realities of an aggressive 'America first' policy: that without a substantive EU trade deal, we'll need to rely on World Trade Organization rules. And there's still a possibility that we could leave the EU with no deal, which will cause unnecessary economic damage across the UK. This will be particularly dangerous at a time when the WTO appellate body for resolving disputes is being undermined by the United States. The self-imposed and unrealistic time constraints from the UK Government only serve to weaken our position in both negotiations.

Within the Welsh Government, we're building new capacity to rise to these new challenges and to identify the new opportunities that will arise. We're bringing together our work on EU negotiations, future trade negotiations with third countries, the development of common frameworks across the UK, and our thinking on the UK internal market. As a small, agile and outward-looking country, we can support the UK Government in helping identify regional impacts of trade policy options and trade-offs. We can draw on our networks across Wales, and make connections across policy areas that are difficult for large Whitehall bureaucracies to identify.

We're going to establish an expert stakeholder advisory group to inform and test our trade priorities for Wales as the negotiations progress. This will ensure that Welsh businesses, civil society and consumers will have a voice, and I'll of course keep the Senedd updated on our work on trade policy.

So, my priorities in the coming weeks will be to make progress on establishing formal intergovernmental machinery and securing a clear role for the Welsh Government in future negotiations. And as a part of this I'll press for transparency in UK trade policy, starting with agreeing negotiating mandates across the UK, and for those to be published. I'll continue to make the case for prioritising our trading relationships with the EU, whilst exploring opportunities for future trade deals that offer opportunities for Welsh businesses and consumers. Diolch, Llywydd.