Questions now from the party leaders. Leader of the opposition, Paul Davies. 

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, the Welsh Government's latest figures show that over 12,000 cattle were slaughtered due to bovine tuberculosis. This is an eye-watering 24 per cent increase on the previous year. These figures are the highest on record. Where is your Government's policy going wrong?

The Government policy is certainly not going wrong on the basis that the Member has just outlined. Let me begin, though, by recognising the enormous impact that TB has in the farming community, the trauma and the hurt that occurs in farming families when TB occurs in cattle, but the slaughter figures are the result of greater sensitivity in testing, greater testing regimes—. We are discovering more TB, and, therefore, the slaughter figures are up. It is not that this is TB that wasn't there before. It was there before, and it went undetected, and because it was undetected, it continued to pose a risk of further onward transmission. So, the fact that we are discovering more TB, and I understand all the distress that that brings—but the fact that the slaughter figures are up is not for a moment by itself a sign that the policy is failing.

Well, First Minister, you've just said it yourself: you are finding more incidents of TB. And let's be clear: your policy is not working, otherwise the number of cattle slaughtered due to bovine TB would be decreasing, but, instead, we're seeing an increase. And whichever way you want to look at this, the fact remains that the Welsh farming sector is under a huge amount of pressure. This morning's farmhouse breakfast hosted by the Farmers Union of Wales gave us the opportunity to hear more about the challenges facing Welsh farmers, and bovine TB was certainly at the top of their agenda.

First Minister, you're right, I myself have had first-hand experience of seeing just how difficult and devastating bovine TB can be for those farmers affected by the disease, and they expect and deserve more from the Welsh Government. The unsustainably high number of cattle being slaughtered in Wales is down to your Government's failure to tackle this disease holistically, and in the meantime, farming communities across Wales are feeling isolated, ignored and neglected.

So, with that in mind, First Minister, and in light of the very serious impact that bovine TB is continuing to have on Welsh farms, both financially and emotionally, can you tell us what new action the Welsh Government will now take to push ahead with the eradication of bovine TB in Wales? And can you also tell us what reassurances you can offer Welsh farmers that your Government is listening and that you will protect the sustainability of the farming industry for the future?

Well, in terms of the Welsh Government listening, Llywydd, I myself addressed the National Farmers Union council yesterday afternoon, as I did to the FUW's annual conference last year in Aberystwyth, as I met with the FUW with Lesley Griffiths to talk with them specifically about TB. I want to recognise the sense of strain that there is in farming communities here in Wales as we leave the European Union, with all the uncertainty that that brings for farming communities, and that is very real, as they told me yesterday when I met with them, alarmed by what the Chancellor of the Exchequer had to say at the weekend about not pursuing regulatory alignment, for example.

As far as long-term indicators of TB in Wales are concerned, there's been a 37 per cent decrease in new incidents over the last decade, a 4 per cent decrease in animal slaughters over the whole of that period, and there were 393 fewer herds under restrictions at the end of 2018 than at the end of 2009. We do need to do more. I acknowledge that. It's why I met with Professor Glyn Hewinson, with Lesley Griffiths, not last week but the week before—the world's leading expert in bovine TB who we have brought here to Wales, we have established with a new institute in Aberystwyth under the Sêr programme, drawing in other major figures from this world. He said to us that he thought there were new things that we would be able to attempt in Wales as a result of the research that he is carrying out and that what we will need is a differentiated package to deal with TB. TB is different in different parts of Wales, the underlying causes are different in different parts of Wales, and as a result of his work and the work that we're doing with others, for example in the Gower, where we have a very particular project hand-in-hand with farmers, we will find new ways of tackling a disease that has such a devastating impact on farming families.

It's quite clear, First Minister, that farmers and farming unions don't think that your current policy on bovine TB is working and that's why it is crucial now that your Government reconsiders this policy in order to tackle this disease in a much more holistic way.

Another pressing issue raised with me this morning, where the Welsh Government also has responsibility, is in relation to nitrate vulnerable zones. There are some very serious concerns regarding these proposals that could impose huge burdens on farmers and, as a result, force many out of business. So, farmers are rightly seeing these proposals as another blow to the agricultural community. At the very least, a regulatory impact assessment must be published, given the enormous impact your Government's proposals will have on every farm in Wales. First Minister, NFU Cymru are absolutely right to say that the Welsh Government is testing the Welsh farming industry beyond its limits. Will you therefore confirm exactly what the Welsh Government's plans are for nitrate vulnerable zones in Wales, given that you promised to introduce these at the beginning of this year? Will you now publish a detailed regulatory impact assessment of these proposals and will you now make it crystal clear exactly what support will be made available to those farmers who will be financially disadvantaged by your Government's proposals?

Well, Llywydd, we were committed to bringing forward regulations at the start of January, and the reason that we have delayed that for a number of weeks is exactly in order to be able to carry on the conversation with farmers who have come through the consultation process with some new ideas as to how the purpose of the regulations can be delivered in practice. But let me be completely clear: the Welsh Government will not step back from tackling pollution in agriculture here in Wales.

Pollution incidents are too high—they have been growing, they do damage. They do damage to water courses here in Wales, they do damage to the environment and they do damage to the reputation of the farming industry, just at the point where the reputation of food production here in Wales needs to be at its very best. That is why, following years of a voluntary scheme agreed with the NFU, which is not then honoured on the ground, we will move to regulate, but we will do it alongside our farming communities, in discussion with them. That's why we have held back in bringing the regulations forward, because there may be ways in which we can achieve the aims that we will not stand back from in a way that farmers would find more practical in the way that it is applied. And then we will provide financial support to assist them—not to reach the standards that are already there in regulations and that every farm in Wales ought already to be meeting, but to meet any additional regulatory burden that will come through the pollution control. Five million pounds in next year's budget to help tackle pollution to water quality. We will work with the farming community. This is the right thing to do. We want to do it alongside them, but that does not mean for a moment that we will stand back from the challenge that agricultural pollution poses to us here in Wales.

Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price.

Diolch, Llywydd. Despite repeated public safety concerns, the then justice Secretary at Westminster, Chris Grayling, pressed ahead with the part privatisation of the probation service in 2014. A year later, Conner Marshall from Barry was murdered by David Braddon, who was under the supervision of a privately run community rehabilitation company. This has turned out to be one of the most catastrophic policy decisions by a Westminster Government. Conner's mother Nadine, who was in the Senedd today, has led a tireless campaign to get justice for Conner. First Minister, how can we best honour his memory and her work?

I thank the Member for that question and begin by agreeing with him that the destruction of the probation service, often referred to previously as the jewel in the crown of the England and Wales criminal justice system, is a stain on the record of the previous Conservative Government and a stain that had such devastating practical consequences in the case to which Adam Price has referred. I pay enormous tribute to the campaign led by Conner's mother. I know what an impact that has had on the wider family and on her own future. I know that, because she met twice with my predecessor as First Minister to present directly to him her and her family's experience and to ask for our help in putting pressure on the UK Government to right the wrongs that had been done, which was assiduously followed by my predecessor.

The Member asked what could we do to mark our difference here in Wales. Well, I have long argued that the probation service ought to be devolved here in Wales. I first gave evidence in 1995, on behalf of the National Association of Probation Officers, to a commission that was preparing legislation for devolution and argued there that the probation service and youth justice ought to have been on the early list of services to be devolved, because the things that a probation officer relies on to discharge their responsibilities effectively are all devolved already. If you're looking for a mental health service, it's controlled in Wales. If you're looking for a course for somebody to go on to improve their prospects of employment, it's devolved to Wales. If you're looking for somewhere for somebody to live, housing services are devolved to Wales. The alignment between the probation service and the services that are already devolved is so strong that probation ought to be devolved so that the dedicated staff who still work in the probation service, under often impossibly difficult conditions, would be better placed to do the job that they want to do, and we could have a probation service of the sort that we would want to see here in Wales.

Thank you, First Minister. When the system was privatised, as we know, eight organisations were awarded the contracts worth just under £4 billion. Working Links was the company supervising David Braddon. In 2015, the year of the murder, The Financial Times reported that staff were writing to the company complaining of excessive workloads. Last week, the coroner concluded that the management and supervision of the newly appointed probation worker responsible for David Braddon was woefully inadequate. However, it's not clear that much changed in the intervening period. The inspectorate of probation report in July last year reported that 60 per cent of reporting officers thought their workload was unmanageable. Were the concerns raised by probation workers brought to the attention of the integrated offender management Cymru board or the all-Wales criminal justice board, on which the Welsh Government is represented for the reasons that the First Minister has just outlined, and, specifically, were the boards aware of any increased risk, potentially, to the public in south Wales at the time of Conner Marshall's murder as a result of the shortcomings identified? 

Llywydd, what I can say in general is that our concerns about the fate of the probation service, about its privatisation, about its break-up into component parts, have very regularly been raised through the machinery that we have here in Wales and in our contact with the UK Government. Indeed, I very well remember myself the strenuous efforts that we made while Chris Grayling was embarking upon this wholly misguided reform, where we argued that Wales should be excluded from it, because if there was a market anywhere—and I would have doubted that very much—if there was a market that could be used to provide services, there was no market in Wales. There simply weren't providers out there waiting to take on this work. So, we argued strenuously at the time that we should be excluded from these reforms, because they simply were never going to work on the ground here, and we conveyed that through all the different mechanisms that we had. 

Llywydd, Adam Price asked me a very specific question at the end as to the boards' discussions of a particular item. I don't have that information immediately to hand, but I'm very happy that we will find it and let him know the outcome.FootnoteLink

Information further to Plenary (Welsh only)

First Minister, you make the case very eloquently that, certainly, probation should have been devolved long ago, and it's certainly the case, I think, that had the justice system been devolved then we wouldn't have followed the disastrous changes that the UK Government implemented, and I think you have to ask: could it be that an innocent life would not have been lost? Obviously, the Thomas commission has issued its report, making the case broadly for the devolution of justice and policing. It should be noted in this context that the actual name of the new community rehabilitation company that took over from Working Links is, actually, and almost inexplicably, the Wales division of Kent, Surrey and Sussex, which in some ways say it all, doesn't it, about the predicament that we're in? Is the First Minister able to tell us when the Welsh Government will formally respond to the Thomas commission recommendations, and will that response be a positive one in terms of its core proposal, which is the devolution of justice and policing and probation? And wouldn't that be the best way of honouring Conner's memory?

Llywydd, we will certainly be making a positive response to the Thomas commission. One of the recommendations was greater co-ordination of the work that turns out to be going on right across the Welsh Government in this non-devolved area already—one of the striking things that Lord Thomas said he found that he hadn't necessarily anticipated.

Yesterday we had the first meeting of the Cabinet sub-committee that I will chair to oversee the implementation of the Thomas commission's recommendations and the wider work of the Welsh Government in the justice field. There will be a debate on the floor of the Assembly here in Government time very shortly, in which we will report on the steps we have taken immediately after the publication of the report. I understand that there is a conference planned for April of this year led by Swansea University, which will be a further opportunity to bring those interests together, because, Llywydd, let's not forget that lots of the recommendations in the Thomas commission are aimed at the profession here in Wales—things that the profession itself needs to do to strengthen its ability to provide the service of the sort that the Thomas commission envisages. That April conference will be an early opportunity for us to report on progress, and to do it with those other interests that are necessary if we're to make a success of the recommendations in Wales.

Brexit Party leader, Mark Reckless.

First Minister, a key element of city deals, at least as the UK Government has promoted them over the past eight years, is to integrate transport on a regional basis. Does Cardiff council's announcement last week mean that a different approach is being taken in Wales? Not only does one council area, Cardiff, appear to get a disproportionate share of public transport investment for the Cardiff city region, we're now told that Cardiff council wants to make others pay for it by charging non-Cardiff residents £2 a time to bring their cars into Cardiff city centre, while exempting all Cardiff's own residents. First Minister, do you support taxing Newport, Bridgend and the Valleys to pay for Cardiff?

Well, Llywydd, I think the Member confuses a number of different strands in trying to tie the city deal and its mechanisms and its funding with the proposals for consultation that Cardiff council have produced. I'll just draw the Member's attention, in case he's not had an opportunity to see it yet, to a letter issued by my colleague Ken Skates on behalf of the Welsh Government to the leader of Cardiff council. The letter is in the public domain, and I'll just quote from the relevant paragraph: the Welsh Government needs to consider in detail the proposed introduction of any new demand management mechanism by the council and its impact on the wider region around Cardiff, which includes some of the most deprived communities in Wales. To this end, I can confirm that the Welsh Government is now commissioning a detailed study into demand management approaches, their benefits and challenges, to inform a national position on this issue, which can help contribute to regional positions in relation to it.

I'm glad to hear the Government will be looking at this in detail and responding to the consultation. However, doesn't this go to values? Average pay in Cardiff is £583 per week. In Blaenau Gwent, it is £458 per week. Why should people who earn £125 less per week pay a new tax while people who earn £125 more a week are exempted? What does that say about the values of the First Minister, his party and his Government? While he may respond in general in due course, why can't he say now that it is wrong for Cardiff council to seek to make everyone else pay a congestion charge while exempting its own residents? We learned in the draft budget that there are to be swanky new electric buses at twice the normal price for Cardiff, yet bus services in Ebbw Vale have been halved in frequency as Welsh Government makes real-terms cuts to bus subsidies. [Interruption.] And the junior Minister heckles. His budget—real-terms cuts to bus subsidies. Those are the values of this Welsh Government. The head of Welsh Treasury told Finance Committee last week that this was because Welsh Government could give capital support, but not more revenue. First Minister, is this really true? Wouldn't new buses reduce operating costs and attract more passengers, therefore reducing the need for revenue subsidy? And if UK Government can rip up Treasury rules in order to get investment out of London and to the north of England, why is it that Welsh Treasury is insisting on an approach that denies investment to the Valleys in order to concentrate it in Cardiff?

Well, Llywydd, it is the normal farrago of ideas that we are offered by the Member. Swanky new electric buses are being provided in Newport and Caerphilly as well. Does he not want to see them there either? Does he not want to see the £29 million that we have put in our draft budget for next year to support electric vehicles here in Wales? Of course we need to see new forms of public transport, because we have to persuade people to come away from the car and to use different forms of transport. Cardiff is the most commuted city in the whole of the United Kingdom—70,000 vehicles travel into Cardiff every day. If we are serious about air quality, if we are serious about the climate emergency, then we can't just look the other way and say, 'Never mind; just let it carry on.' Now, fairness is at the heart of how that problem must be solved, and that is absolutely in the heart of the letter that Ken Skates has provided to the leader of Cardiff council. But dismissing all the ways in which we can make a difference in the future as though they were of no relevance to people who live either in the capital city or in the areas that surround it is no way at all to approach what is a fundamentally serious public policy challenge here in Wales, in our capital city and far beyond.