2. What assessment has the Minister made of the relationship between population forecasts and local development plans? OAQ54991

Yes. The household projections, local housing market assessments and well-being plans are essential parts of the evidence base for local development plans. The scale of housing growth is a matter for local planning authorities to determine, reflecting the issues they have identified.

The Wrexham local development plan in my own region was rejected back in 2013 by the planning inspectors because there wasn't sufficient land allocated for housing, in their opinion. That was because the population forecasts for the county had stated that there would be a 20 per cent increase in population—the second-highest increase throughout the whole of Wales, second only to Cardiff. But, of course, the reality is very different.

Over the past five years, the increase in population has been significantly lower than the forecasts. Despite that, it appears that the Planning Inspectorate still isn't listening because they continue to challenge Wrexham council. The council is looking at a target of some 8,500 homes in their LDP, whilst the Planning Inspectorate insists that they need around 12,000 in that plan. That will mean building more homes on greenfield sites and it will create some sort of urban sprawl that will destroy the unique communities in the area.

So, my question to you, Minister, is: where does the Government stand on this issue? Are you in favour of a regime that enforces the building of unnecessary homes, or are you in favour of protecting our communities and our environment?

Well, thank you for that. As Llyr Gruffydd knows, it's much more complicated than that. He's absolutely right in saying that Wrexham had its original LDP rejected as a result of the way that it had done its housing land allocations policy. While the council does have an extant unitary development plan in place, it has expired for the purposes of calculating the five-year housing land supply. As he knows, the authority has been, and will continue to be, vulnerable to speculative development until the LDP is actually adopted. The LDP is currently at the examination stage.

The inspectors have raised concerns regarding the level of housing proposed in the plan, specifically questioning whether it is aspirational enough. The level of housing proposed by the council aligns with the 2014-based 10-year migration variant published by the Welsh Government, which is a requirement of 7,750 homes. Officials have made public representations supporting the level of housing in Wrexham's LDP, and do not consider that it should be increased further.

The level of housing is broadly in line with the past 10-year delivery rates. The inspectors have asked the council to provide additional clarification on this matter, and the deadline for that is 31 January. There will be an additional hearing session on 11 March to consider housing matters further. So, you can see that our officials agree, I think, broadly with what you're saying, which is that, given the current projections and what Wrexham is projecting in the LDP, our officials have made representations saying that we think that Wrexham is about right.

It's always a difficult balance for councils because the projections are just that: projections. They are not plan-based policies. They are based on projected population trends, but they don't take into account any economic development or tourism or other aspirations that the council may have, and they are not intended in any way to be a target. They are simply one part of a set of evidence that the authority must take into account when it sets its local housing target.

For example, in a local authority area, if the number of households being created is outstripping the level of population increase because there are growing numbers of people who want to live on their own, for example, then the housing target might be higher than the population increase and the forecast. So, it's a much more complex matter than that. But I think the simple answer to your question is that our officials agree that the plan is about where it should be and have made representations to that effect into the system.

Minister, I agree entirely with you that it is a complex picture that is painted every time an LDP goes for consideration, and the mix of housing that's required as well, from single-occupancy households to multiple-occupancy households. But it is a fact that, obviously, when councils are putting their LDPs forward, they have to have due regard to population forecasts.

One thing that comes up time and time again is that the population forecasts inform the number of units to be built but, very often, those population forecasts don't feed into the provision of doctors' surgeries, education facilities et cetera. Can you give me confidence that there will be greater weight placed on the services that are required to support these developments, which we all accept we require? We know that there is a housing crisis, and most people can be won over if they can be assured that the transport considerations are taken into account, the service provision is taken into account, and not just the number of houses that need to be built.

Yes, and the answer to your question is to look at the complex set of instructions that local authorities must follow in setting the various things. So, we can look at the housing numbers projections, for example, and the LDP has got to take into account a number of things in coming to its housing land supply and doing that, as I've just said to Llyr. But we also have, for example—. We're currently consulting on the national development framework, which has some major infrastructure things. As you know, we're in the process of putting, via the Local Government Elections (Wales) Bill, a framework in place to facilitate the regional strategic planning arrangements for local authorities, which should put the regional planning arrangements in place for those kinds of infrastructure. So, in the round, the set of plans that we will eventually have in place will do exactly that.

The way that I have been explaining it as we've been conducting a number of stakeholder meetings is that, if you set out a flat plan of Wales, you ought to be able to say, 'Well, here are the trunk roads, here are the hospitals, here are the existing schools, here is where the housing is, here's where the new school should be', and so on, and then when the council is negotiating with the house builder about their contribution to local infrastructure, there would be much better certainty about what that infrastructure should look like in advance, so that when somebody's planning to come forward with a piece of land, they know that they're likely to have to contribute to the school or the hospital or whatever it is that's nearby.

We haven't started this in the optimum place. We've started it at the bottom, and I would have preferred to start it at the top. But my colleague Lesley Griffiths started the process just before I took over this portfolio, and, very shortly, we will in a position where we have all of those plans in place, and we will be able to do exactly as you suggest.