Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer, and thank you for the opportunity to update the Chamber on the work of the inter-ministerial group on paying for social care.

There is broad concern over the quality and sustainability of social care, both here in Wales and across the wider United Kingdom. If we are to have a meaningful conversation about the future of social care, then we have to consider seriously the quality and reach of social care, together with the funding that it requires, and how we raise this. Social care is a significant budget pressure for local government. Despite the reality of a decade of austerity, budgets have continued to rise annually by around 5.5 per cent over recent years. Across each area of Wales, with each different political leadership, there is a recognition in local government of the scale of the challenge.   

This Government has prioritised social care by making it one of the six priorities in our national strategy, 'Prosperity for All'. We've delivered on our manifesto commitment to raise the capital limit for residential care to £50,000. In Wales, we offer the most generous allowance in the UK for the savings and other capital that a person can keep without using those to fund their care. But we believe that we do need to go further. That is what the inter-ministerial group has been considering.

The existing pressures on social care are very real. We have considered Professor Holtham's proposals for a social care levy designed to meet the needs of an ageing demographic. However, pressures exist across other demographic groups, including for working-age adults as well as for older people. Recent research that the inter-ministerial group commissioned from LE Wales highlights uncertainties in projecting future expenditure needs for social care.

Using five illustrative scenarios, LE Wales estimates the need for additional funding over the next three years could range from £35 million a year for 2020 to 2023 to an additional £327 million a year by the same point. And these amounts are projected just to maintain, not extend, current provision.

As I said, we want to go further. Our ambitions for social services in Wales are to keep pace with people's needs and expectations. This will inevitably require additional resources and investment.