Questions from the party leaders now. Leader of the opposition, Paul Davies.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Wales has now risen to six and is expected to rise further. Therefore, it's absolutely crucial that any public information campaign now reaches all parts of Wales so that the public is fully aware of the steps they can take to protect themselves and their families and limit the spread of this virus. What further steps can the Welsh Government take to ensure it maximises the coverage of any public information campaigns in Wales? What additional steps is the Welsh Government taking to ensure that the people of Wales quickly recognise the symptoms of the virus and are properly signposted to the appropriate advice and treatment?

I thank Paul Davies for that important question. He's right to say that there are six confirmed cases in Wales at present, but all the evidence and expert advice that we have says that that number will rise. This does give us an opportunity to make sure that the public messaging that we offer is clear, concise and understandable to people. 

At yesterday's meeting of the COBRA committee, chaired by the Prime Minister, we agreed that it was important that those messages should be UK-wide. So, many people in Wales, as the leader of the opposition will know, receive the bulk of their news from outlets outside Wales. So, consistency of messaging across the United Kingdom becomes, I think, particularly important in this case, and we will work closely with other UK Governments to make sure that there is no confusion in messaging between different parts of the United Kingdom. Here in Wales, there is already, I think, a very effective symptom checker available through the Public Health Wales website, where, if anybody feels that they need to check what they are experiencing against coronavirus symptoms, it takes them through a series of very simple steps and gives them advice at the end of it. The 111 system now provides advice right across Wales free for people in the coronavirus field, and we will continue to use trusted sources of advice through the NHS and through Public Health Wales to make sure that, where public messaging is being made available, it reaches as many people and as quickly as possible. 

First Minister, I understand now that the UK Government has established coronavirus ministerial leads across Government departments, and perhaps you could tell us if the Welsh Government is doing the same to explore all issues and impacts that the virus may have. For example, there's very little guidance or information around the public transport network, particularly given that research published in BMC Infectious Diseases found that those using public transport during flu outbreaks were up to six times more likely to pick up an acute respiratory infection. Of course, there are some very valid concerns around public transport as there are often high numbers of people travelling in overcrowded train carriages, there can be poor ventilation and a lack of hygiene facilities on board as well. And yet travelling on the public transport network is still essential for many people around Wales. Can you therefore tell us what research has the Welsh Government done on the level of threat posed by using the public transport network in its current state? Can you also tell us what discussions the Welsh Government has had with public transport operators across Wales about how they can ensure that passengers are as safe as possible when travelling? And what additional resources are being offered to public transport operators to ensure that they have what they need to ensure that their vehicles and stations are as clean and safe as possible?   

I thank the leader of the opposition for those questions. 

In the Welsh Government, the Cabinet now discusses coronavirus issues at all our meetings, and we have established a core ministerial group that will meet in between regular Cabinet meetings to make sure that we are in a position to respond urgently and immediately where such a response is necessary. The COBRA committee ministerially meets twice a week as well, and Welsh Ministers are always represented at those meetings. 

The current best advice that we have from chief scientists and from chief medical officers is that people should continue to use public transport as they would at any other time, and that there are no current difficulties in people doing that. But this is a disease that the evidence tells us is going to develop further, may develop rapidly as we've seen elsewhere in the world, and to return to the first point that Paul Davies made, Llywydd, it is therefore very important that members of the public have access to changing advice, because, as the course of the disease develops, so the position in relation to advice on public transport will develop alongside it.

We operate, as I think we only can, on the best advice that we can get, and we do that on a shared UK basis using the scientific advisory group, the chief scientist and the four chief medical officers. Individual Cabinet colleagues are taking action to contact the sectors for which they are responsible to make sure that those sectors are making preparations for what may need to be faced as the disease develops, whether that is being able to provide a service with fewer staff, because more people will be unwell and fewer people will be in work, or whether it is in responding to physical infrastructure matters of the sort that Paul Davies referred to in relation to public transport.  

First Minister, of course, I'm pleased that the UK Government and the Welsh Government have worked together on legislation to strengthen the Welsh Government's powers on matters like quarantining and mass gatherings, and, as you're already aware, some schools in Wales and across the UK have closed their doors to students at risk of coronavirus. Of course, schools are a particular problem in terms of stopping the spread of the virus, and so it's important that there are mechanisms in place for the Welsh Government to close schools, if it needs to.

As the threat of the virus spreading is still high, what preparations have the Welsh Government made for the impact that this could have on schools, colleges and universities across Wales at this stage? What discussions have taken place with Ministers across the UK about developing contingency plans for the education sector and, indeed, the health service, should there be a significant increase in the number of children and young people affected? And what discussions has the Welsh Government had with the nursery and early sector, given that children under five, and especially those under two, are at higher risk due to their lower resilience?

Again, I thank the Member for those important questions. We have, indeed, been working with the UK Government on an emergency Bill that is likely to be presented in the House of Commons, and are reaching agreements with other administrations across the United Kingdom on powers that need to come to Wales to deal with devolved services, including the education sector.

We're very aware, Llywydd, that—in what will be an emergency procedure—we will need to work with the Commission to make sure that there are opportunities for the Senedd to scrutinise those proposals as they affect Wales, alongside any LCM that the Government will bring to the floor of the Chamber. The Bill will provide powers for Welsh Ministers in relation to education, and those powers will need to be used at the time when they are most effective.

And if I could just make this one point, Llywydd: in yesterday's COBRA meeting, the point that chief scientists and chief medical officers were most keen to make was that the powers that the emergency Bill will provide need to be deployed at the point when they will make the biggest difference, and shouldn't be used prematurely. Because if you use them prematurely and then need to use them again, the level of public compliance with those measures is likely to decrease. So, if you're going to use powers that are significant, you have to time them properly, and we will act on the best advice that we get from those authorities on timing.

In the meantime, contingency plans, of course, are being developed, and Paul Davies is right to point to the early years sector. Just to give one example of the thinking that is going on: there are regulations, as the Member will know, that in the childcare setting there is a ratio of adults to children, and that ratio is set in regulations. Now, if there are fewer people to work because of the onset of coronavirus, we may need to be more flexible in that regulatory ratio, and that's our thinking and that sort of work is going on already.

And he'll also, finally, Llywydd, be aware that this is a sector that is particularly vulnerable economically because it relies on the fees that it gets from paying parents. What we don't want to see—we've been in dialogue today with the UK Government in advance of tomorrow's budget on this point—is viable and important Welsh businesses going out of business because of a short-term impact, albeit a severe short-term impact, from this condition. We'll be looking to the UK Government to assist in making sure that those businesses can be helped through a difficult period, because we will need them once coronavirus is over.

Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, I believe it's been confirmed that all cases of coronavirus confirmed in Wales had recently returned from Italy. What measures have you taken as a Government to identify Welsh residents who have returned from Italy since the outbreak of the virus, and what extra precautions are in place to ensure that the disease is contained as best as possible?

And also, I was wondering if you could respond to some of the comments made by the shadow Chancellor yesterday when he criticised the speed of action in the response by the UK Government and tardiness on the part of the Chancellor and called for the UK Government to get a grip. To some extent, these comments were echoed by the former Minister Rory Stewart. Do you think that these comments are in any way legitimate concerns at this stage?

Llywydd, on the first point, I don't think there is a useable mechanism by which any Government can track people returning to this country from many parts of the world, not just north Italy, other than through the actions that the UK Government has put in place through the ports and airports. We continue to work at a Welsh level where we have some shared responsibility in that regard.

The advice to people who have returned from other parts of the world where coronavirus is in circulation is very clear: they should not simply turn up at a GP surgery or at an accident and emergency service, they should phone first, they should get advice. The Member, I know, is aware that, in Wales, we have had a particular emphasis on home testing for people. We take the test to the person, so that they don't run the risk of coming into contact with people who could then be infected by them.

The six cases that we have identified in Wales so far are, we believe, people who have been in contact with others from another part of the world. We don't think we have, at this point, community spread in Wales, but the advice is that that is a matter of time. So, while we remain in the containment phase, that will develop into a delay set of actions at the right time.

And that takes me to the second point that Adam Price has raised, and it's the point I made in answer to Paul Davies about speed. The advice we were getting yesterday, Llywydd, was that timing of actions is really important. If we move, for example, today, to a regime in which anybody who had the first signs of a cold were asked to self-isolate, it's almost certain that what they would be self-isolating with would be a cold, because colds are in circulation, and coronavirus is not. So, they would stay home for seven days, with all the inconvenience that that causes, for no very good purpose. If, in 10 days' time, coronavirus were to be circulating and we asked them to do it again, the behavioural modelling tells us that people would be more reluctant to do it a second time, having gone through it all once and found that it wasn't serving a useful purpose.

So, while I think there's every right for parliamentarians to challenge the Government, to ask those questions, to be critical where they think criticism is justified, we will work on the basis of the best evidence that we have and, at the moment, we think that the sequencing of the actions that we are likely to have to ask of Welsh citizens is at the right point at this moment, and that we will time any further things we ask of them so that those asks happen at the point where those actions would have the biggest effect in slowing down the spread of the virus.

Coronavirus is obviously putting pressure on the NHS in all four nations. Labour's shadow health spokesperson, Jon Ashworth, yesterday asked the health Secretary in England for extra resources because critical care beds in England were at 81 per cent capacity during the week that the latest coronavirus figures were available. The Welsh Government's own task and finish group said: 

'NHS Wales has a lower number of critical care beds for the size of the population than the rest of the UK.'

The availability of NHS beds obviously needs to increase drastically, given that hospitals have been operating above the safe level of 85 per cent occupancy for almost 10 years. In the circumstances that we're facing now, have you already identified how you would secure additional critical care beds? And if so, how many?

Llywydd, we are looking to the UK Government for extra resource to support the NHS and to support the economy. We'll be looking to the budget tomorrow to see that the assurances that have been given by the Chancellor are turned into more specific figures for us tomorrow. There are more intensive care beds in Wales as a result of the actions of this Government. Many of us here will remember the debate around the organ donation Bill and the need to increase critical care capacity to make a success of that Act.

But I want to try and say to Members in the most sober way that I can, Llywydd, if a realistic worst-case scenario were to emerge in which 80 per cent of the population contracts coronavirus and 25 per cent of the population contracts it in a way that requires significant medical intervention, that is going to place an enormous strain on all our public services, including the health service, because people who work in the health service will be equally affected by the virus. So, we will face a position in which there will be significantly increased demand and real strain on the people who are left to supply it.

So, of course we are working with the health service to identify the plans that can be put in place, the resources that can be mobilised; but these resources won't simply be beds, they will be people to provide the services that are needed. And in a situation where 25 per cent of the population are significantly ill, that will have an impact on those people too. We know that this will be an impact that will be felt over many weeks, and the resilience of the people who we are relying on to come in and respond in an emergency will be difficult to sustain week in and week out over that prolonged period.

The cusp of what may turn out to be a global pandemic is obviously not a time when anyone would want to be contemplating closing facilities within the NHS. Five weeks ago, when asked if you would intervene to keep accident and emergency services at Royal Glamorgan Hospital, you said we're not remotely at that point yet. In the next two weeks, the health board will make a final decision. Have we reached that point? And if so, will you intervene today?

Llywydd, there is a very well set out and legally necessary process by which a decision arrives on the desk of a Welsh Minister. That is a process in which those organisations that have a legal right to refer a matter to the Minister's desk are the people who have to do that, if they choose to do it. We're not at that point. The health board will have to make its determination, and then an organisation, such as a community health council, who can refer that matter to a Minister for determination, would have to decide to do that. That's how the process works. That's how the process has to work to be legally watertight. And, we're not at that point. We may not get to that point, because the decision has to be referred for a Minister to take a decision. But, if it does happen, Ministers have legal responsibilities. And that's why it has been so important, in all of that, that Ministers don't pre-judge a situation in which any decision they then made would be vulnerable to challenge. 

Leader of the Brexit Party, Mark Reckless.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, if I may turn to flooding, the industry association for forestry businesses, Confor, says that Welsh Government's and NRW's interpretation of the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 resists changes to any landscape where the habitat or designation is not for woodland. Given the flood mitigation benefits of tree planting on uplands, and the opportunities for decarbonisation are there as well, do you agree that guidance for interpreting the Act is now outdated?

In 2017, the Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee looked at barriers to tree planting. Confor and Tilhill Forestry were among those who gave evidence, and said that the environmental impact assessments were a huge barrier to tree planting. Since that report, the environmental impact assessment regulations have not changed. Would you agree that it's time we did more to enable tree planting, given the declared climate emergency and the devastating flooding we've recently seen, and should this include updated environment Act regulations and guidance to remove barriers to tree planting?

Llywydd, let me begin by agreeing with what the Member has said about the beneficial impact that tree planting can have in relation to flood prevention. Increasing forest cover within river catchments increases canopy evaporation, enhances ground water storage, improves soil structure and resilience, and, very importantly, slows the flow of water. So, there is a strong case that the Member has referred to that additional tree planting has a part to play in flood defences.

There is a balance to be struck between the planting of additional woodland and the impact on biodiversity. Now, because that balance has to be struck, we have a regime in Wales in which, if planting of woodland above five hectares is proposed, then an environmental impact assessment has to be carried out to make sure that the extra tree planting, with its benefits, doesn't crowd out other important objectives in the environmental field. The Minister, I know, is considering at the moment whether that five-hectare threshold is too low, and might be raised. That would have a beneficial impact in making it easier to plant trees, but we would have to be confident that it would not lead to significant biodiversity loss, which might, by itself, outweigh the advantages that the tree planting would bring. 

I welcome the Minister giving that reconsideration. However, Confor also mentioned the issue of where a landscape is designated in some other way, say an upland sort of moorland, that they find there is a presumption against tree planting in those areas. And they can be much cheaper areas, say £1,000 a hectare, rather than several thousand, making the planting much more economic and likely to go ahead. Should we not also look at those designations, and allow greater flexibility for tree planting?

Now, decisions around dredging are affected by the EU water framework directive, and we know that the use of dredging reduced significantly around the time that directive was passed and then implemented. Now, we know that greater dredging would not mitigate all flooding, but it might have made a difference in some cases, for instance, the river Conwy, where we heard from Janet Finch-Saunders. Vikki Howells, from your own benches, made a similar point last week from a south Wales Valleys perspective. Meanwhile, the resumption of dredging the Somerset Levels does seem to have helped in that area. If coupled with regulations that encourage upland tree planting, couldn't increased dredging mitigate future flood risk? Now that we've left the EU, shouldn't we develop our home-made practices and frameworks for dredging and flood protection? And do you agree that these should encourage upland tree planting and make it easier to undertake appropriate dredging?

Well, on the first issue of designation, Llywydd, designation is there for a reason; it's for other sorts of protections. But, in a post-Brexit world, the plan that my colleague, Lesley Griffiths has been taking forward that began as 'Brexit and our land' and is now 'Sustainable Farming and our Land', does point to the fact that, in the future, the public will be prepared to pay farmers to do things that have a direct public benefit, and additional tree planting may well be part of one element in the repertoire of things that the public will be prepared to pay for, for the reasons that the Member outlines, and that may have implications for designation. 

As for dredging, in our collection of evidence from local authorities, as we begin to move, we hope, into the recovery phase from recent flooding, one of the things we will be discussing with those local authorities is whether dredging, additional dredging, would have had an impact on the flooding that was experienced. So, it's actively under consideration in that evidence-based way, but we will want to hear from each local authority about their particular circumstances. In some places—I am probably wrongly anticipating—but from what I've seen so far, my anticipation is that there will be some instances where additional dredging would make a difference, but that it may not be a solution that has a beneficial impact everywhere.