Part of 2. Questions to the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd – in the Senedd at 2:33 pm on 11 March 2020.
Minister, you've just given a perhaps understandably clinical analysis—certainly at the start of your answer there—as to the effect on revenues of income tax changes. What you've said is, of course, totally technically correct, but increasing or reducing taxes does, of course, have other effects, which UK Government has been dealing with for a long time: behavioural changes, for instance. Increasing taxation may well bring more money into the coffers and allow you greater money to spend on public services; but at the same time, reducing taxation, as well as lowering the amount of revenue, may also of course stimulate, and almost certainly would stimulate, entrepreneurialism and encourage people to work harder, knowing that they're going to keep some of their money. So, all that has to be factored in.
I noticed, in the Chancellor's budget today, he mentioned that there was going to be a new Treasury office, or new Treasury officials, coming to Wales. I wonder if you could tell us what you know about that announcement at this early stage. And also whether, when it comes to making changes to income tax, you think there's potential for yourself and for the Welsh Revenue Authority to work closely with that new Treasury office, as a base of experience, so that when you do come to make these changes in income tax in the future, up or down, it's done with the best possible evidence, and we know full well what the effects are going to be on the Welsh economy.