1. Will the Minister make a statement on the steps the Welsh Government is taking to increase capacity to deliver a coronavirus test, trace and isolate strategy for Wales, following reports that Public Health Wales' latest advice is that 30,000 tests a day could be required? 415

Thank you for the question. Members will be aware that Public Health Wales has developed a high-level document to inform discussions with partners on the next phase of our national response to COVID-19. Discussions are ongoing this week to finalise the operational elements of a public protection response plan for Wales.

Diolch, Weinidog. We were told in March that there'd be 9,000 tests a day by last week, rather than around the 1,000 or so we're currently hitting. I'll park for a minute the apparent commandeering of 5,000 Welsh tests a day by UK Government. But global evidence on testing hasn't weakened since then, it's strengthened, and it's countries that have set elimination strategies with robust test, trace and isolation policies—countries like New Zealand—that have managed to keep their death rates down.

Public Health Wales seem to agree. The document I've read—and, incidentally, I know the Minister refers to it as a draft document, a document we perhaps shouldn't take too seriously, but I have it here: public health protection, a response plan prepared by Public Health Wales, 29 April 2020, final version. It says that testing for COVID-19 is a critical part of the response to the pandemic in Wales. The question is: how should that be delivered? Now, the document is detailed, it's complex, it makes projections for the testing capacity needed. It says on page 65 that, as well as particular groups that will need testing—key workers, patients in hospital, and so on—testing symptomatic members of the general population will be essential to suppress transmission. And it states, and I quote, that if all symptomatic members of the population are to be tested, this would generate a demand of approximately 30,000 tests a day.

Now, what sparked this question was the Minister's almost immediate dismissal of that, suggesting a figure closer to the original 9,000 may be needed. But, of course, despite setting those targets back in March, Welsh Government now doesn't believe in targets. Or does it? Welsh Government's chief scientific officer, Rob Orford, answering my questions in the health committee last week said:

'we're not publishing the number of tests that we're aiming for, but the internal numbers are significant'.

So, Ministers do know how many tests we should be aiming for, but aren't telling us. And for us parliamentarians, on behalf of the people of Wales, to be able to scrutinise Ministers, to push for the best possible outcome, which is what we all want, we need to know what Government itself is aiming for. So, please can I ask the Minister to tell us what the plan is, what the targets are, and how we're planning to get there, so we as parliamentarians can measure if you're on track?

Thank you for the statement and the series of questions within it. I think it's important to go back to what this leaked draft document is, and it's not a final plan for Wales, it's the basis of a discussion between partners. Because Public Health Wales, as the draft has been leaked, have had to engage in a wider conversation with partners in the health service—so, health boards and other trusts—as well of course as local authorities and others. So, those partners, together with the Government, are working through the document with Public Health Wales. Feedback is coming in from that, and we will then get to a point over the next week or so where there will be a confirmed national plan. I set out the high-level elements of that yesterday, and the main points of principle will remain consistent, but the operational plan will set out and fill in more of the detail on numbers—so, the model of contact tracing we think we're going to adopt, the point at which that tracing will take place, what that means in terms of the capacity we need, where we'll get that capacity for contact tracing from. And local authorities have been really helpful in those discussions, in developing something to get more operational and looking at the resources they've already got.

And then, of course, the point about testing—now, the capacity for that is not something that is certain at this point in time. We'll have more certainty when I have a finalised plan, and, when we do so, I'll obviously make a statement, and I'll be ready to answer questions, not just from the press, but from Members of this Parliament as well. So, we'll expect to see further progress on testing, because, as I have said on a number of occasions, we know we need a larger testing infrastructure to move to the test, track, trace programme. But it's the point and purpose of that testing. And the reason why I mention 9,000 tests is that, when Scotland announced their plan, they indicated that, for Scotland—and Wales has a population of just under 60 per cent of the population of Scotland—they thought they'd need 15,500 tests. If the early draft figures in the document that's been leaked were the ones we're aiming for in Wales, that would mean that Scotland would need nearly treble the number of tests they've announced, and England would need testing capacity of over 600,000. So, the approximation that I gave was that, if we were doing the same thing on the same basis as Scotland, that would end up being a figure of 9,000.

When we get a final plan, with final figures, I will of course be publishing that, making that available to all members of the public, and I fully expect to answer questions before this Parliament on that as well.

Isn't it a fact, Minister, that your Government simply hasn't got a grip of testing here in Wales? We've got woefully inadequate numbers of people being tested at the moment; we know that Public Health Wales has capacity to deliver around 2,000 tests a day, and yet the reports that we receive from Public Health Wales seem to indicate that less than half of that is actually being taken up.

We know, for example, from the Royal College of Nursing, that even those who are eligible for tests have no idea, a good proportion of them, how, actually, to get themselves booked in. So, we've got real problems on the testing front. And, of course, we have an unequal access to testing in different parts of the country. We know, for example, that new testing facilities, in terms of the drive-through facilities, came on stream in north Wales well after those in the south; we know that laboratory capacity also, of course, needs to be ramped up. We were supposed to have a new laboratory in north Wales, so that test results didn't have to be sent to the south, operational by the end of the month, and, of course, that deadline, which you set yourself, went by without that laboratory having been established.

So, do you accept that you're failing on testing, that you need to ramp this capacity up, regardless of the situation that you describe—which seems to be pretty complacent, I have to say—in terms of the need to get this trajectory up on testing?

And can you also—? One other part of the report that was leaked referred to the number of people who might need to be engaged in the test, track and trace process and the surveillance process. There was a number in there of 1,800 people being required in Wales in order to facilitate the sort of working that was described in the document. Now, in Scotland, they have suggested that they're going to need around 2,000 people, and, in England, they've suggested around 18,000 people. Now, both of those, proportionately for the population, seem to be far fewer than the number of people that Public Health Wales seem to suggest that we might need in terms of personnel. So, can you explain what the rationale is for that much more significant number proportionately, why they've arrived at that particular figure, and what efforts you're making at the moment, as a Government, to make sure that those people are recruited?

Again, I need to start by reminding the Member, as he knows, that the report that he's referring to is a leaked draft report and not the final plan, so I don't intend to run around looking at assumptions that underpin that, because, when there is a final plan that the Government introduces, I'll then be talking about how we've arrived at those figures, having had that conversation across the health, social care and wider range of partners who are going to be needed to understand and to implement the public protection response plan.

I don't accept the charge that we don't have a grip on testing. We know we've got to do better. The review that I instituted has led to a number of improvements already. In the direct conversation I have with stakeholders, for example, Care Forum Wales, local government and people running the local resilience fora, they state that the referrals are now being made at a much better rate and a faster rate. Our challenge is to make sure that we still have a consistent application of both the process, so it's properly efficient, and that will need to develop further as, of course, we know we're going to see a larger number people come through as we start to phase out of lockdown, but it's also about making sure that it's easier for employers to refer their members of staff into the testing process as well. So, that's a direct point that we're taking up within our system and with employers, but, as I say, that's a conversation we have on a regular basis and the additional oversight that we're providing for that.

On your broader point about unequal access, well, as you're moving to any new system, where you start first will be a pilot, and start off earlier than other parts of the country. I think it really is important that we don't collapse into a narrative about regional grievance, that some regions of Wales are being deliberately de-prioritised as against others, and that simply isn't true. The lab in Rhyl, which of course, as you'll be aware, is in the Deputy Presiding Officer's constituency, that's opening today. That will provide not just closer geographic access, but it will provide some additional capacity as well, and that should make a positive difference for people across north Wales, but more resilience across our national picture as well.

When it comes to the physical contact tracers and the numbers of those, this again goes back to the point that this is a draft that's being discussed, and it's being discussed to get to the right number to understand how many people we need and the balance between the use of technology and physical contact tracing as well, with people on phones and otherwise. All of these things about the number of staff needed will have to take account of the form of lockdown measures we're going to ease as we exit lockdown, and the number of extra people that are moving and circulating in a different way to the way we are now, and, of course, people's continued willingness to follow the social distancing guidance we've introduced, because that has been the major reason why we've slowed down the spread of coronavirus and we don't have even more deaths to report here in Wales today.

Minister, in terms of expanding the number of tests, what are you doing to enable GPs to arrange a COVID test for a patient who has possible coronavirus symptoms in the community? And back to this final report, why do you now suggest following Scotland, rather than following your own advice in this report?

Well, this should be the point about the current focus on testing, and that's about critical workers and people who are symptomatic. That should still work within the healthcare system, so if GPs have patients they're concerned about and there's a clinical reason to do so, that should still be possible. We're also then talking about the broader roll-out of testing as part of the test, track, trace model.

The leaked draft document is exactly that. This doesn't represent the final advice to Ministers on the exact model we should implement here in Wales and the numbers that underpin that, whether of the number of tests that we need, or indeed the contact traces. So, that is still part of the conversation we're having with partners, so that Ministers do then have a final form of advice about what that will look at in each of its aspects. I think the idea that Ministers are rejecting the advice that they're receiving on this issue is not to give a fair or accurate representation of what's being done. That draft report is being worked through, as you would expect it to be, with partners in the health service, local government and others. And as I say, I fully expect to come back to this Parliament to provide a further statement and answer questions when we do have that final plan that we will, of course, be publishing.

Thank you, Minister.