Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 2:25 pm on 13 May 2020.
Llywydd, apologies that I struggled to hear a little bit of what the Member was saying, but I think the thrust of his argument is that we are 'foolish', I think was the word he used, to focus on the R value and that we should be bold. Well, let me tell him what being bold would mean: the R value in Wales, we think, at the moment is 0.8, and even at 0.8 we have to anticipate that over the next three months another 800 Welsh citizens will die because of the virus. If the R number were to rise to 1.1—so that's a tiny number of one-tenths of one—if it was to creep up to 1.1, the number of deaths over that three-month period would be 7,200. So, the price of being bold is the death of 6,500 people in Wales.
I see that the Member doesn't agree, but I'm not making it up. I am giving him the very best figures that our epidemiologists and public health physicians offer. And this is a figure that will be agreed right across the United Kingdom. At 0.8, 800 people very, very sadly may die over the next three months. At 1.1—just that tiny increase—it's 7,200. It's easy to sit here and be bold. I'm not going to be willing to be bold when 6,500 of our fellow citizens would have to bear the brunt of that boldness.