Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 11:14 am on 3 June 2020.
Llywydd, I thank Paul Davies for those questions. It's important to remind people in Wales that while we believe we have passed, in almost all parts of Wales, the first peak of coronavirus infections, and have done so thanks to the enormous efforts of people across Wales, have done so while avoiding our health service being overwhelmed, that is no guarantee at all that unless we go on doing all the sensible things that we are doing that we might not have a second peak later in the year. Conditions in the autumn will be more favourable to the virus, which doesn't like sunlight and doesn't like the outdoors, but likes the indoors, the dark and the damp, and we will be in that part of the year as we move into the second part of the autumn. So, I agree with what Paul Davies has said about the need to use this opportunity to prepare, should we find ourselves in more difficult conditions in the second part of the year. And he will know that in our framework document, one of the tests we've applied to lifting the lockdown is, 'Could any measure be re-imposed should it turn out to have unforeseen adverse impacts?'
So, we are doing further modelling both on the disease itself, making sure, for example, that in terms of PPE we use the relatively stable position we are currently in to replenish our stocks, so that we would have material ready if it was needed in the autumn. Financial modelling is far more challenging, because the needs of businesses, of local government, of people who have been without work in Wales in this first coronavirus phase have been so urgent and so necessary. We have passed on all the money, the consequentials that we have received from the UK Government, as fast as we have been able to do so. There is no great pot of money sitting idle in the Welsh Government waiting for things that can happen in the second half of the year. Of course, the finance Minister maintains a reserve, as we would need in normal times, and our budget—the one that was passed in the Assembly in March—is modelled over a 12-month period. But if there were to be a second peak and we were to find ourselves back in the difficulties we've avoided so far, then the financial consequences of that would have to be navigated with further help from the UK Government.