Diolch, Deputy Llywydd. Thank you very much for calling me in to take part in this debate. I'm going to look at the Welsh economy. It can be broken down into five parts: the essential economy, the bounce-back economy, the areas that can flourish with support, areas that require consumer confidence, and areas that will be very difficult to recover in the very short term.

We know the essential economy; it's been running for the last three months. We know it did. Don't confuse it with the foundation economy; they're not the same things. The essential economy is things like health, social care, the utilities, local authority services, including environmental health and refuse collection, Government services, policing, fire, defence, essential maintenance, undertakers, ICT, food and drink, including their production, sale and transportation, life sciences, the media, postal services, financial insurance and certain manufacturing. They are the essential economy—we've had them going for the last three months, because they are essential.

We've got economic sectors such as public transport still working, but at vastly reduced capacity. We've seen the voluntary and third sector provide much needed services, showing that many are essential, not just nice add-ons.

Then we have the bounce-back economy. These are areas of the economy that will return to the previous levels of demand after an initial rush. These include areas such as the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency, hairdressers, beauty salons, nail bars, tourists, gyms, tv series, museums, art galleries, construction, car maintenance and servicing, and local coffee shops and takeaway shops. People have been waiting months for them to be open and, in the first few weeks of opening, there'll be lengthy queues and long delays until we return to the new normal. We're already seeing the queues forming outside well-known takeaway outlets. This will be the V-shaped recovery talked about by economists and they'll all make us all feel better. Within this group are professions such as vets and dentists, and also, I would have said, opticians, but we now know that the Westminster Government advice seems to be: if you've got a problem with your eyes, go for a drive to test them.

The third key sector is one we really do need to support, and this includes universities, theatres, other performing arts venues, manufacturing, professional sport and professional services. These are key parts of the local economy, and require support to recover. These are the areas that, post lockdown, we need the Governments at Westminster and Cardiff to concentrate on, either using transaction capital to provide interest-free loans or providing an income guarantee. This will also include those self-employed people, who will need to rebuild their businesses, having been in lockdown since March. These are key sectors in the economy. These are potential growth sectors in the economy and in the short term, they're going to need support.

Fourthly, we have—[Inaudible.]—that will require consumer confidence, both financial and in terms of personal safety. These are the pubs, the restaurants and local tourist attractions, hotels and clubs. These will require confidence that they're safe, and people having surplus income to be able to afford these luxury items. Confidence that you're safe to go in there will be very, very important, probably far more important than the date on which somebody decides they can open, if people don't want to go and risk their lives by having a drink. 

The others are areas dependent on consumer belief in their economic well-being, when they're buying new houses, new cars or investing in house extensions and substantial garden work. These require confidence in the economy and people to be prepared to take on medium and long-term debt. You've got to be confident in having a medium to long-term income before you're prepared to take on medium to long-term debt.

Fifthly are the sectors where recovery will be difficult. Will people and companies have changed how they work? We have seen many people working from home, with productivity no worse, and sometimes better, than when they're working in offices. Will this continue? Because if it does, then roads will be quieter, as will public transport, city centre coffee and sandwich bars, office furniture demand, office space, plus car park income. My belief is that it'll be somewhere in between. Not everybody will go back to work in the office as they did before. Some of it will take place, but some will be working at home, and that will have a huge effect on the economy.

Have people changed their retail habits permanently, with more items are being bought online? If they have, what is the future for the high street? People have got into click and collect and buying online now over the last three months or so. This is the new normal.

Then, there is foreign travel, which will affect not just travel agents but aircraft manufacturers, airports and support services. This area needs support in both the short and medium term from Government to ensure that it can once again thrive and prosper. While none of us can see into the future, the new normal will be very different from the pre-pandemic normal. I would have greater respect for the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru if they could actually produce their own budgets rather than a spending list. I challenged them on the budget, and they didn't. In fact, I was the only one to produce a suggestion for how the budget could be changed. I wanted to put more money into education and less money into the economy.

I support the idea of a citizens' assembly, but we need to discuss its size, its make-up, and how and when it meets. It cannot be a new name for the active, often politically interested citizens who are already engaged.