Not since 1918 has the world experienced such a threat from a biological agent. The Spanish flu swept the globe, leaving death and destruction in its wake, and long after the dead were buried, the economic impacts were felt. Many believed the Spanish flu led to the Great Depression. The spread of severe, acute respiratory coronavirus too threatened to be another event like the 1918 flu outbreak, but because the world took decisive action, we have not seen tens of millions of people dying. Yes, the death toll is still horrible—in excess of 2,000 people have died in Wales, and thousands across the UK and nearly 500,000 people worldwide. 

This disease has a high mortality rate among the sick and the elderly. And in order to protect our most vulnerable in society, we placed our entire country in quarantine, and, yes, it was the right thing to do. We were woefully unprepared for this virus, so in order to ensure our healthcare system did not become overwhelmed, we locked everyone away—the sick and the healthy, the young and the old. And thankfully, our NHS coped, and everyone's sacrifices, together with the hard work and dedication of our key workers, meant that we successfully flattened the curve. But we now have to balance the other side of the scales. 

A possible vaccine is at least one to two years away. We can't keep everyone locked down for that long. We have to restore people's freedoms in order to prevent indirect harms. Lockdown has already greatly impacted people's mental health and we have seen a tremendous rise in loneliness and isolation: couples separated since mid March, families unable to visit one another and friends prevented from getting together, unless they are fortunate to live near each other. Social distancing has led to social isolation, and its effects have been keenly felt by those already suffering from mental ill health.

Some of the UK's top psychologists have warned that lockdown is greatly impacting the mental health of young people. Yet, some councils in Wales are only allowing them to go to school for a few hours every few weeks. This hugely risks damaging their development, to say nothing of the impact this is having on their education.

It's not just mental health that's affected, our NHS has stopped operating for all but a few essential services. We already have the worst cancer survival rates in the western hemisphere, yet we have stopped all screening services. People have not stopped getting sick because of COVID-19, and my worry is that the halt in health services will do lasting harm to many people. Our NHS could barely cope prior to this pandemic. Who knows what impact this pause will have on patients.

What we do know about this virus is the impact it is having on our poorest communities. Newport and Rhondda Cynon Taf have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Infection rates in these communities are some of the highest in the UK. News out last week also pointed to the fact that Wales has experienced the greatest increase of economic inactivity of any home nation. The economic fallout of our response to this pandemic could be felt for generations.

We are approaching the point where the cure is worse than the disease. Coronavirus hasn't gone away, but we are also no longer unprepared. We need to move away from quarantining the healthy towards isolating the sick and vulnerable. COVID-19 is here for the long haul, but we mustn't kill the patient to cure the disease. We can't stop people catching the virus, but we can stop its expediential spread by isolating them and not everyone else. Unless we accelerate the lifting of lockdown, we will end up doing greater and lasting harm, and I urge Members to support our motion.