Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:32 pm on 8 July 2020.
Diolch, Llyr, for those questions. Sorry, I didn't answer Andrew R.T. Davies's point around the economic analysis, and, at the moment, we're currently procuring to engage an independent consultant to examine the effect of the proposals on the agriculture economy of Wales, and then—. It's a complex piece of work and, when it's received, if it's myself, then I would certainly be able to publish that, but I think it is going to take a little while, because it is such a complex piece of work.
It's also really important to examine the estimated economic effects of the proposals on farm businesses—I think that is really important—as well as across the different farm sectors and the different farm regions in Wales. And Llyr talked about the environmental outcomes of different—well, you didn't say about different farms, you were talking about the environmental outcomes, and what's really important, and one of the questions that I was constantly asked was, 'Would there be farms that could not produce any environmental outcomes?', and I think the answer is, 'No, we think all farms of all types and all different sizes are able to produce environmental outcomes, and are doing so now, but not getting the rewards for them.'
So, we hope that every farm will be able to attract payments under the proposed sustainable farming scheme and that's why it's really important to do economic analysis and also modelling. So, further modelling will take place over the coming months. You're right about the EU transition period and leaving the EU, because we know that future trade relationships will have the potential to impact many areas of environment and rural affairs, and, whilst we don't know the level of funding, what we were told is we would not lose a penny, so that is the basis on which I work and officials work on bringing forward this scheme.
I think you make a very important point about COVID-19 and the concern about exploitation of some of our farm producers, and I went to great lengths to meet with the retail forum regularly—I met with them again this morning—to make sure that wasn't happening. We heard about a couple of incidents where supermarkets rationalised their produce on offer, but it was really important that they didn't cut out Welsh producers, and we didn't want that exploitation to happen. Food production has always been really important to me, and it was always part of the consultations. If you look at the UK Government consultation, I don't think the word 'food' appeared at all. We always made sure that it worked, and we're doing a piece of work now on sustainable brand values, and we're linking that with our food production and our food security. I mentioned in my answer to Andrew around the Wales Audit Office report, but, clearly, that risk that you refer to is something that, obviously, I was concerned about, and, as officials respond to that report in the audit committee, then we can—. Once that report has been scrutinised in the way it should be, then we can look at it. But we are having ongoing review of delivery of the RDP; if problems are identified that we can address then we will need to do that, but I think it is really important that we do get it right ahead of any scheme coming forward, because the last thing I want to do is make it more complex or more difficult.
But I go back to what I was saying to Andrew about the BPS and people saying that did not provide the resilience that's needed, and so, whilst I don't want to rush to transition, I don't think it's helpful not to have the scheme in place, but realistically I don't think it will be before 2024. But I want to make sure that everybody has the opportunity to participate, everybody gets rewarded for those public goods that they're providing—that air quality, the soil quality, the water quality. That's not happening now.