2. Will the Minister provide an update on this year's winter flu vaccination programme? OQ55595

Thank you. This winter, with the continued presence, indeed the resurgence, of COVID-19, we want to ensure that more people than ever receive the flu vaccine. That is why we have extended the eligibility criteria. We're working with key partners to maximise the uptake of the flu vaccine, and additional vaccine supply will be available to support anticipated increased demand.

I thank you for that answer. In his evidence session with the Senedd's health committee last week, Dr Quentin Sandifer from Public Health Wales said that

'in ordinary times, we would aspire to a 75 per cent flu vaccination uptake in eligible groups' and that would 'maximise the protective effect'. So, clearly, we want to hit at least that this year. So, what, then, is being done to ensure that we achieve that maximum uptake? Has everyone eligible for the free flu vaccination been contacted by the NHS and are the stocks and the logistical arrangements in place to deliver a record number of doses on time? Given the spike that we've seen in coronavirus testing and absences at the start of the new school term and, given the increased danger of having both coronavirus and flu at the same time, where are we in terms of take-up and delivery of the nasal spray flu vaccination in primary schools?

Thank you for those questions. And it is a really important campaign, this year more than ever. In an average flu season, 8,000 to 10,000 people across the UK lose their lives as a result of flu, so this is a significant cause of mortality in normal times. Given the additional risk of corconavirus, it's even more important than ever that we have people taking up the offer of a free NHS flu jab, and indeed for other members of the public to protect themselves, if they can do so.

What we have done is we have, together with other UK nations, procured more of the flu vaccine than ever before—about 50 per cent more. That is to maximise take-up in the at-risk groups, and those people are regularly notified through their healthcare providers and will receive the same notification. We already see, though, positively, evidence of an increase in demand for the NHS flu jab, so that's good news. That does mean, though, that there is a need to make sure that people have ready access, whether in general practice or community pharmacies—our two main delivery systems for the flu jab for adults and adolescents—and it's important that continues.

On the nasal spray for younger children, both pre-school and in early school, we've actually, again, had increased supplies available to us, and that is rolling out within each health board as we speak. So over the coming weeks—. We've had a letter in my own household for our primary school age child to get consent for him to have the nasal flu spray as well during the season.

It's important that we get as much done, as far as possible, before we get into December. So we want as many people vaccinated as possible by November, if at all possible, because flu tends to circulate in larger numbers, in larger volume, from December onwards. So I am confident that the enhanced profile that this campaign has this year will lead to a continuing strong demand for uptake, and if we can have that high level of vaccination within our most at-risk categories, we'll then move to roll out another campaign for over-65s and, then, the over-50s.

But it's been a good start thus far and I do really think that, this year, we have seen a much heightened profile of the flu vaccine campaign. It normally receives a period of interest for a brief period of weeks and then largely rolls into the distance, but I think, with the additional threats of coronavirus, we will see more and more people wanting to take up the offer. 

The increase in demand, Minister, is very, very welcome, as is the extension of the eligibility criteria, but, unfortunately, I've got people in my own constituency who have been told they cannot schedule a flu jab appointment with their GPs until a month hence, which is clearly completely unacceptable, particularly for those in those vulnerable categories that you've already referred to. And, of course, it's not just the flu vaccine that some people need to access; there's also the pneumococcal vaccine to protect people against pneumonia, and I'm aware that there are shortages of that vaccine across Wales and, indeed, other parts of the UK at present. What action are you taking to make sure that there is sufficient capacity within the system to be able to meet the request for vaccination from all those who need it?

There's a mix in terms of the provision. So the UK Government normally procure flu vaccine supplies for across the UK, and that's where we've agreed to have an increased UK procurement exercise, and a range of GP practices also procure their own as well. We are aware of some challenges in supply and those are short-term matters, is our understanding. So, for example, one of the major manufacturers has decided to stagger the release of the flu vaccine this year, which is why some community pharmacies and some practices may experience a delay and a staging in the way they can deliver the vaccine.

In terms of what is and isn't acceptable, I think it's the case, as I said, that because flu circulation tends to take place later in the winter, through December, the important point is to use September, October and November to get as many people vaccinated as possible to provide that level of protection ahead of the peak of the flu season. We'll continue to work with both general practice and community pharmacy. And I would say that if there are real challenges in the supply, as opposed to a staggering of the supply, because the two are different, as ever we'll continue to work on this issue in a constructive way across the UK. It's one of the areas where all four Governments, regardless of political leadership, do have a very grown-up and, I think, effective way of working with each other.

I feel that Joyce Watson's question is hugely important, particularly in the light of the COVID crisis, where there are figures to show that the take-up of flu vaccines is much reduced amongst the most vulnerable. Perhaps this is because people are fearful of attending surgeries—a fact that may well be the result of doctors being reluctant to engage with all but the seriously ill. The low take-up is particularly worrying given the fact that in the last 14 weeks, the flu killed 10 times as many people as COVID. Is this part of the statistics that would prompt some scientists to say that the lockdown measures could kill 75,000 people? Minister, given the devastating effects lockdowns have on society as a whole, can you assure the people of Wales that the lockdowns will only occur once all available scientific advice is sought and that they will end at the earliest possible date that data no longer supports the lockdown?

I'm afraid, I think, that there was a large amount of misunderstanding in the first part of that question. Joyce Watson's question really is important because of the additional risks that we know come, not just in a normal flu season, where, as I've indicated, 8,000 to 10,000 people across the UK lose their lives as a result of the flu and its effects each year, but actually we're in a position where we are already seeing increased take-up. It isn't that there is a reluctance from people to have the flu vaccine this year—far from it. People are keen, not just in Wales, but my understanding, in terms of the sharing of information between all four nations, is that in all four of the nations of the UK people are keen to take up the flu vaccine and are looking to have it early, which is good news for all of us.

When it comes to the restrictions that have been put in place, both the current local measures we have and indeed the fuller lockdown measures that were introduced in March, they're only being introduced on the basis of the information we have available to us: on the medical and scientific information on the spread of the virus, on its impact and its likely impact if measures aren't taken to halt its spread. We will only introduce these measures where there is an evidence base to support them and it will reduce the harm from coronavirus, and we will lift them when the evidence is there that they are no longer a proportionate intervention in the way that people live their lives. 

We're acting now to avoid the sort of harm we saw in the first wave of coronavirus. I do not want to wait until our hospitals are full and I am having to report on significant increased death figures every day before we are prepared to act. Acting now is about avoiding even more draconian impositions on the way people live their lives, avoiding even more significant harm to families and communities across the country.