5. Statement by the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd: Update on fiscal impacts of COVID-19 and future budget prospects

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:02 pm on 6 October 2020.

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Photo of Rebecca Evans Rebecca Evans Labour 5:02, 6 October 2020

I thank Mark Reckless for his comments. He never enjoys my statements, so I'm not surprised that, today, there was no change in that. But I will say on the matter of land transaction tax, because I know we had the opportunity to rehearse these points in Minister's questions just a couple of weeks ago, it's essentially our understanding, and I think that we are correct in this, that the level of change that we would expect to see to the block grant as a result of the housing market being closed, if you like, for longer here in Wales will just be marginal, and we don't expect to see any major change to the Welsh Government budget as a result of that. Because, of course, the fiscal framework does protect us from overall economic shocks, and this situation has been as difficult in England as it has been in Wales, and we would expect the Office for Budget Responsibility to provide us with updated forecasts, which we will publish alongside our draft budget later on this year. So, we'll have a much clearer picture then. But I don't think the impact for either land transaction tax or landfill disposals tax will be significant in terms of our overall budget. 

And then Mark Reckless also went on to talk about Welsh rates of income tax and exploring why the Welsh Government isn't raising income tax at this time. We made a commitment at the start of this Senedd that we wouldn't raise Welsh rates of income tax over the course of this Senedd term and, given the fact that we're in such a difficult economic situation, I don't think now would be the right time to do so. We have to recognise, I think, the scale of the funding that could be brought to the Welsh Treasury as a result of changes, and a 1p increase on the basic 10p would only bring in £200 million. So, in normal years, £200 million would be a significant amount of money, but we're talking this afternoon about being at the top end of our £4 billion additional guarantee from the UK Government. So, I think that we do need to put things in perspective as well.

The policies of fiscal austerity implemented by the UK coalition Government in 2010 and continued by the subsequent Conservative Governments have delayed and damaged economic recovery, which was the weakest on record. And, obviously, it left public services with insufficient resources to deal with normal demand for routine services, let alone cope with the outbreak of the coronavirus. And, of course, the economy is now in one of the deepest recessions in memory, so it's entirely reasonable, I think, to protect the incomes of households and businesses in these circumstances. And it's our view that the UK Government should continue to borrow while interest rates are lower than they were before the crisis, and are actually lower than the rate of inflation at the moment. It's the only way to really protect the economy's capacity to produce the goods and services that we will need to emerge out of the crisis. So, clearly, introducing further austerity now would be extremely problematic, and the Prime Minister has said that there would be no return to austerity, so, clearly, we would want to be holding him to that. 

And then in terms of repurposing the budget, the £500 million I referred to earlier in my response to Nick Ramsay in terms of the funding we've been able to provide to support businesses—that was funding that was repurposed across Government and the EU funding that was repurposed, but that's not to say that individual Ministers aren't making decisions almost every day in relation to the funding that goes through their department, which is very much focused on our response to the pandemic. I think the repurposed funding only provides I think part of the picture and, of course, the additional funding that has been announced today is over and above all of the other funding that has been announced in these areas.