Questions now from the party leaders. First of all this week, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Paul Davies. 

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, yesterday, one of your health Ministers warned that a second national lockdown could be introduced here in Wales. Does this mean that the Welsh Government's current approach to implementing the current lockdowns has been a failure?

Llywydd, no more than the Prime Minister's announcement of a new three-tier system in England was a measure of failure in England. It's a facile point to make. What the Minister for Health and Social Services was warning of yesterday is that coronavirus numbers are growing right across Wales, that the gap between those parts of Wales which are not in local lockdown measures and those who are is shrinking, and that we have to be prepared for the fact that the measures we have taken so far may not be enough to meet the onslaught of the virus during the autumn and winter. The Prime Minister moved to change arrangements in England yesterday because of the upswing in virus there. We will do the same in Wales if we need to do it here. 

Llywydd, of course, the First Minister wants to talk about England, so let's talk about England. Let's talk about the fact that the latest evidence from the Office for National Statistics shows that the number of COVID-related deaths is proportionately higher here in Wales than in England. Let's talk about the fact that two thirds of tests carried out in Wales are done by UK lighthouse labs and so Public Health Wales's capacity clearly isn't being used effectively in Wales. And let's talk about the massive investment the UK Government is delivering into Wales to support our businesses and public services right across the country—over £4 billion to date. I have to say, Llywydd, I'd want to talk about England if I was responsible for this Welsh Government's record.

Now, the Welsh Government's approach has been to implement a mix of county-wide lockdowns and hyperlocal lockdowns, like in the case of Llanelli and Bangor. And in order to better judge the effectiveness, or indeed ineffectiveness, of the Welsh Government's current lockdown approach, it is vital that it publishes data at a community level. The Welsh Government must also publish data by demographic, so we can follow trends and better use our resources to protect our people. And the Welsh Government must openly publish transmission data, so that we see how the virus is being transmitted, for example, by household, hospitality setting, workplace or by travel. And the people of Wales must be able to judge for themselves whether the measures being taken by the Welsh Government so far have been proportionate or not.

Now, some counties, of course, have chosen to publish community data themselves, such as Rhondda Cynon Taf, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil and Monmouthshire, and that transparency is absolutely crucial. And it's only fair that everyone in Wales should have access to data about their own local community. So, First Minister, will you now commit to leading on this, by publishing data on a community basis, on a demographic basis and on a transmission basis, so that the people of Wales can be confident that the current lockdown measures are proportionate to the threat of the virus in their own areas?

Well, Llywydd, indeed the policy of the Member's party is that for Wales we should see England, so nobody should be surprised at his introduction to this next series of questions.

I agree with him that local level data published by some local authorities in Wales has been a very useful guide for those local populations, and will encourage other local authorities, who are in a position to do so, to do the same. The Welsh Government publishes a huge amount of data every day in relation to coronavirus, both directly ourselves and through Public Health Wales and through other aspects of services for which we are responsible. What I won't do is to publish data that is so volatile that it's impossible to draw sensible and reliable conclusions from it. The data we publish needs to be data that can be sensibly used, and where it can be, then we do.

Well, First Minister, you say that you, as a Government, publish the data, but that's not the case though, is it? Because Vaughan Gething has already made it clear that the Welsh Government won't publish more localised data to keep people in Wales more informed. Because on 25 September, he said he doesn't want to provide a running commentary. You're saying one thing and Vaughan Gething is saying something else. Clearly, you are not singing from the hymn sheet as a Government, First Minister.

Wales needs a balance between protecting lives and livelihoods, and we're yet to see enough valuable data to judge the proportionality of the Welsh Government's measures. Instead, what we have seen is the Welsh Government push for a travel ban, despite providing no evidence that one is actually needed. And First Minister, before you push ahead with a travel ban, you should publish the evidence that you have that proves the case for one.

And in the meantime, the Welsh Government has had plenty of opportunities to bring in mandatory testing at Cardiff Airport. Four weeks ago you said you were in discussions with the managers of the airport you own, and yet there's still been no progress. First Minister, passenger numbers are down by 93 per cent, so do you have any intention to introduce mandatory testing—the same testing your party colleagues in London keep calling for—or, as is the case with your proposed travel ban, are you just waiting for England to do it first?

Well, Llywydd, I'm afraid the leader of the opposition really is all over the place this afternoon: he hops from one remote contingency to another. There is no difference between the health Minister and myself. I said we would not publish data at a localised level that is not reliable and cannot help people to make informed and proper decisions; that is what the health Minister says, and that is what the Member needs to understand.

Let me deal with the travel issue, one on which he and his party are so much on the wrong side of the argument, refusing to take a simple measure that would help to keep Wales safe, and which is bitterly resented, by the way, in the part of Wales that he comes to the Senedd to represent. A part of Wales in which the current rate of coronavirus is below 30 per 100,000 of the population, but where his Government, in England, allows people from Liverpool, where there are 800 cases per 100,000, to travel from Liverpool to Tenby and to the west of Wales to stay. Now, that is unacceptable to people in that locality and it's unacceptable to me too.

I put these points to the Prime Minister again yesterday. Once again, he refused to do the simple and the right thing. I have written to him again today. I have set out the evidence for him, which is plain for anybody to see. The Member was very interested in data earlier in this session. I commend to him the data that I refer to in that letter, which will demonstrate why allowing people from high-circulation areas to move to low-circulation areas simply carries the virus with them. We prevent that from happening in Wales and the Prime Minister needs to prevent it as well. And he ought to be speaking up for the people of Wales, not for his own narrow party perspective.

As for the airport, we continue in discussions. When it is possible to have a system that does not lead to long, long delays, with people at the airport waiting for tests to be carried out—. He may think that that's easy to bring about. I can tell you, having read all of the information, that it's not. There are ways in which we can tackle that problem. We're very close to agreeing it. Once we do, we will make sure that people arriving in Cardiff Airport are able to be tested—and tested rapidly—so that where they are able to, they can resume their daily lives.

Now, the Plaid Cymru leader—Adam Price.

Diolch, Llywydd. Three weeks ago, the Strategic Advisory Group for Emergencies, SAGE, advised that a combination of interventions would likely be necessary to bring R for coronavirus below 1. Among the measures that it said should be considered for immediate introduction were a circuit-breaker, a short period of lockdown, to return incidence to low levels; the closure of all bars, restaurants, cafes, indoor gyms and personal services; and for all university and college teaching to be online unless face-to-face teaching is essential.

Can you confirm, First Minister, that you were privy to this information three weeks ago? And, with R in Wales currently at 1.37, and with the number of new cases reported today at 764, why have you decided not to implement the SAGE recommendations when you have said consistently that you would be guided by the science?

Well, Llywydd, SAGE advice comes to the Welsh Government via the technical advisory cell committee. It doesn't come unmediated because SAGE advice is dominated by the need to provide advice to the largest of the four UK nations. That's why we have our own technical advisory cell, and SAGE advice comes to me via that cell, and we've not yet been advised by TAC to implement a circuit-breaker system.

But, I do take the arguments in favour of a circuit-breaker period seriously, and in the COBRA meeting yesterday, I asked the Prime Minister for an extra special COBRA meeting specifically to discuss the circuit-breaker idea. I think that it's an idea that will need further examination, and needs to be shared in perspectives between the four UK nations. I repeat that call to the Prime Minister in the letter that I have written to him today.

Let's look at the evidence from the technical advisory cell that you referred to, First Minister. On 18 September, it said:

'A package of non-pharmaceutical interventions...on local and national scale may be needed to bring R back below 1…an earlier and more comprehensive response is likely to reduce the length of time for which they are required.'

It repeated that in its next report on 25 September, in which it said:

'If the current measures do not bring R below 1 then further restrictions will be needed to control the epidemic in Wales. The earlier additional measures are introduced, the more effective they will be.'

Your Labour colleague at Westminster, Jonathan Ashworth, has said today that the inaction of the Government, in light of the SAGE papers, is alarming, and that the Labour opposition would have followed the scientific advice and implemented a circuit-breaker weeks ago. Keir Starmer said yesterday that the Prime Minister, in these circumstances, has to act quickly and decisively, but doesn't the same also apply to you, First Minister?

Well, Llywydd, I believe we have acted quickly and decisively. The local restrictions that we have in health protection areas in Wales go beyond what is required in England, even in the tier 3 measures that the Prime Minister has published. And over the weekend, we had to move again to impose such local restrictions in another area of Wales, in Bangor in north Wales. So, I believe that we do act quickly and we do act decisively.

I want to be clear with Members, as with people who live in Wales, that if the position we face continues to deteriorate, if the number of cases of coronavirus continues to go up, if we continue to see an additional flow of people into our health service, as we have over the last week—. Llywydd, four weeks ago, the number of beds occupied by people with suspected or confirmed coronavirus in our hospitals was around 200; this week, it's around 500. If we continue to see those numbers rise in that way, then further measures will be needed.

One area where we do need quick and decisive action is in relation to travel from areas of high infection that you've already referred to. This is the fourth week running that I've highlighted the absurdity of people in areas of high COVID rates in England being allowed to travel into parts of Wales. Yesterday, the health Minister, for the first time, confirmed that there had been importation of coronavirus cases from contact with some of those high-prevalence areas in England. Perhaps, First Minister, you could give us a little bit more detail about that evidence.

Clearly, the UK Government should act to close this travel loophole. But waiting for BoJo is proving a pretty futile exercise. So, rather than writing another unanswered letter or waiting for a four-nation COBRA, why not act independently now in the interests of the people of Wales? If you need extra parliamentary time this week, First Minister, to get this legislation through, then we as an opposition party will support you. Can we really afford to wait another day, let alone another week?

Well, Llywydd, the Member asked where the evidence comes from. It comes from the waste water surveillance survey that demonstrates that, when people come into Wales from other parts of the United Kingdom, then the rate of coronavirus found in waste water goes up and it is found in genomic evidence—important new genomic evidence. I referred to that in the letter that I've sent to the Prime Minister.

You see, where I differ from the leader of Plaid Cymru is this: he uses the language all the time of people from England coming into Wales, as though this was some sort of contest between Wales and England, and I've been absolutely clear that that is never the point that I have made to the Prime Minister. The point I make to him is that people from high-prevalence areas should not be allowed to travel to low-prevalence areas—wherever the high-prevalence areas are in the United Kingdom, wherever the low-prevalence areas are in the United Kingdom. So, this is not about stopping people from England coming to Wales, nor should we ever fall into that sort of way of talking. It is simply about preventing people, whether they live in Wales in a high-prevalence area going to a low-prevalence area in Wales or England or Scotland, or people anywhere else in the United Kingdom where the virus is in high circulation going to places where the virus doesn't exist in the same way, because when they do that, the risk of bringing the virus with them is inevitably and obviously increased.

Leader of the Brexit Party, Mark Reckless.

First Minister, there's been no difference between how you and Adam Price are speaking about this issue. Indeed, there now seems to be little difference between your Government and Plaid Cymru. Many fear we are sleepwalking towards independence. 

Yesterday, you sought to lay down an ultimatum to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Today, you were across nearly every news outlet saying that you want to enforce a border between Wales and England. Meanwhile, top travel writer, Simon Calder, who encouraged people to holiday in Wales whilst observing COVID restrictions, was subject to a torrent of abuse. He said:

'The intensity of negative comments were of a magnitude I've not experienced'.

After being called 'scum' and told to 'eff off and stay in England', he says he won't visit Wales again. When questioned, your Government spokesperson just replied that Boris Johnson had refused to put in travel restrictions, despite your calls. First Minister, will you condemn the abuse Simon Calder received for encouraging people to visit Wales in a COVID-compliant way, or are you taking over Plaid Cymru's anti-English stance now that they've taken over your party's antisemitism?

Well, Llywydd, the Member could not have got it more wrong. I have done my very best throughout the discussion about travel to make it clear that, for me, it is not a matter of the border. It is the Prime Minister who is forcing it to become a border matter by his refusal to act to prevent people inside England travelling from high-incidence to low-incidence areas and travelling beyond England. So, my position is that I believe in the United Kingdom; I believe in a successful United Kingdom. I regret bitterly that the Prime Minister acts in ways that cast a doubt on that in the minds of others. And I repeat, Llywydd, as I've said already: for me, this is absolutely not to do with preventing people from England coming to Wales; it is a matter of preventing anybody, anywhere in the United Kingdom, who lives in a high-prevalence area travelling to a low-prevalence area, anywhere in the United Kingdom. For that to happen, we've all got to play our part. We have those arrangements here in Wales. I want the Prime Minister to do the same for England, because I think that supports a successful United Kingdom, and I think not to do so undermines those of us who want to make that case. As for Simon Calder, I think his advice to people was naïve, but I absolutely do not believe that people who speak on any subject should be subject to abuse, and I regret the fact that that was the result of what he had said. I may not agree with him, but he has every right to say it and he has every right to be respected.

First Minister, you talk about respecting devolution and wanting a strong United Kingdom but then demand that England must do what you do in Wales, or else. Now, you have this policy of preventing anyone from crossing a council area, as you define, you have it with force of law, but the reality is that after lockdown fatigue, because of how long you kept it going before, consent for your policy is breaking down. The official opposition opposed your policy of preventing people crossing those council borders. Because you locked down harder and longer in Wales to postpone infections from the summer into autumn and winter, our economy, as well as our health, has suffered.

The Centre for Cities think tank found that Cardiff had seen the weakest post-lockdown recovery outside of London, with only 51 per cent of pre-COVID footfall returning to Cardiff, yet infections in Wales are shooting back up, as they are in England. In my region, the areas with least infection are on the English border, whilst Cardiff, Swansea and the Valleys have higher rates than nearby parts of England, yet you imply that our problems here reflect policy in England and seek to blame COVID spread on people coming over the border from England. First Minister, isn't the real reason you are threatening to enforce a border to distract from your own Government's and this institution's mismanagement of the pandemic?

I entirely disagree with those points. The way that coronavirus has been managed in Wales, I think, has secured the agreement and the consent of people in Wales. They certainly don't agree with the sort of fringe ideas that the Member peddles in the Chamber, during the time he still has left with us. Nor do I accept that the point of our travel request to the Prime Minister is anything other than a sensible, straightforward course of action, designed to protect people and to keep Wales safe. That is the object of this Government; it may not be shared by him.

Question 3, Rhianon Passmore.

You're not unmuted. Rhianon Passmore can't be heard. Carry on.