Questions now from the party spokespeople. The Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Llyr Gruffydd.

Diolch yn fawr, Llywydd. Tomorrow, Minister, of course, is the deadline set by Boris Johnson to come to an agreement with the EU on a post-Brexit trade deal, after which, he says, the UK is ready and willing to walk away, leaving us with 'no deal' chaos and realising the worst nightmares, of course, of the agricultural industry here in Wales. And we all know the figures: 82 per cent of beef exports from the UK go into Europe; 78 per cent of dairy produce exports; and 90 per cent of lamb exports currently going in to the EU. Now, a London School of Economics report has found that, even with a free trade agreement by the end of this year, food trade between the UK and the EU will be slashed, driven primarily by non-tariff barriers. So, can you outline to us what contingencies the Welsh Government is putting in place to mitigate the devastating 'no deal' damage that's looming and, specifically, the steps that you're looking to take in relation to the beef, the dairy and sheep sectors in Wales?

I'm sorry, Llyr, I missed the beginning of your question. There was no volume at all, so I wasn't quite sure who you were referring to. But, certainly, in relation to the red meat sector, and also poultry and eggs, the Welsh Government is doing a significant amount of work. You'll know that we've had several campaigns with Hybu Cig Cymru to promote the red meat sector specifically. Last year, we had detailed discussions around a support scheme for the sheep sector, because, as you said in your question, the figures are certainly very concerning, if we don't have that trade agreement with the EU, our closest neighbours, as a market of over half a billion people. So, those conversations have started again with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and with my ministerial counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland, about the significant support for the sheep sector. 

I'm glad you share my concerns. I'm not sure that that gives me the assurances I was looking for. I didn't hear any specifics, other than 'ongoing discussions'. Now, we're 12 weeks away, of course, from this potential eventuality, and your Government needs to be ready to implement actions in 12 weeks' time. I was hoping to hear, maybe, how you were looking to ramp up cold storage capacity, to handle surplus produce that will no longer be exported. I was hoping that you'd maybe tell us how public procurement would be stepping up to the plate in order to try and absorb more domestic produce. Maybe you could tell us what discussions you're having with the UK Government to ensure that the risks of 'no deal' aren't escalated by trade deals with Australia and New Zealand potentially allowing for an increase in quota for lamb exports coming into the UK from those countries. 

Also, we saw reports last week that 2 million UK lamb carcasses may go to waste under a 'no deal' Brexit. Can you tell us, Minister, whether your Government is now planning to handle thousands and thousands of tonnes of additional food waste that potentially you will have to handle as a result of a 'no deal' Brexit?

Well, you will appreciate that as, as you say, we're only 12 weeks away from the end of the EU transition period, these are ongoing discussions. So, I absolutely appreciate they're urgent, but you will also have to appreciate that the UK Government are leading on a great deal of these, and, of course, while we're making plans for a 'no deal' Brexit, we are reliant on a lot of information coming from the UK Government. I and my ministerial colleagues are all having increased meetings with the UK Government. I had two yesterday with the UK Government, not specifically around red meat but in relation to fisheries and energy, for instance. So, those discussions are certainly increasing. 

Obviously, trade discussions—. I don't lead on trade discussions for the Welsh Government; that was Eluned Morgan, and now Jeremy Miles. But these sorts of things will obviously be discussed by them also. We have made the UK Government very well aware that we know a 'no deal' Brexit would be absolutely catastrophic for the red meat sector, for agriculture and, indeed, I think, for the whole of Wales.

Well, you still haven't given me any specific actions, but I'll move on, because actions do speak louder than words and we saw this week how Tory Members of Parliament in Westminster removed from the UK Agriculture Bill, of course, clauses that would have protected food standards in this country in future trade deals. And in doing so, of course, they let Welsh farmers down. They exposed them to the risk of cheap imports undercutting their produce and undermining their livelihoods. Now, weeks ago, many of those very same Members of Parliament were wearing a wheatsheaf in support of the Back British Farming campaign, but their actions this week have clearly exposed that as a hollow and meaningless gesture. So, do you agree with me, Minister, that the only way now to protect Welsh farmers in future is to maximise the powers we have here in Wales to do as much of that as possible ourselves?

I absolutely agree with you around the disappointment expressed. It's been very interesting to see both the National Farmers Union Cymru and the Farmers Union of Wales extremely critical of the UK Government in relation to the votes that took place on Monday evening around the UK Agriculture Bill. We want to see our very high standards maintained; they had the opportunity to put it into legislation on Monday and failed to do so. I've always made it very clear that we will have our own Welsh bespoke agricultural Bill. I still intend to bring forward a White Paper before the end of this calendar year in relation to that and we want to do all we can to maintain existing high standards of food safety and animal welfare. We're working very hard on the frameworks—you'll be aware of all the frameworks that are currently being done in collaboration—in relation to this matter also.

Conservative spokesperson, Janet Finch-Saunders.

Diolch, Llywydd. Good afternoon, Minister. There are 119 intensive poultry units in Wales with 40,000 or more birds. One hundred and sixteen of these are in Powys. Natural Resources Wales's Powys poultry pilot study—an assessment of cumulative atmospheric releases—found that smaller, non-regulated, but covered-under-planning poultry units do have a greater impact on the local ammonia concentrations than the larger regulated intensive units. It is noted that 12,000 free-range laying hens have a greater environmental impact than 80,000 meat birds. That was in 2005, yet, five years later, it is NRW that remain responsible for environmental permitting for the sites and for completing the habitat risk assessments for developments of only 40,000 or more birds. Are you confident, Minister, that NRW are regulating the category correctly or should the 40,000-bird red line in section 6.9 of Schedule 1 to the Environmental Permitting (England and Wales) Regulations 2016 be lowered in respect of the 2015 report?

Janet Finch-Saunders quotes figures from 2005 and 2010. Certainly when I was planning Minister a few years back, this was something that I asked planning officials to look at for me, because we were seeing that cumulative effect that Janet Finch-Saunders refers to. I'm happy that NRW are monitoring in the way that they should be, but if she has, again, any specific concerns, I'd be very happy to take that up with NRW.

Thank you. Many concerns have been raised with me across Wales generally in terms of intensive poultry units—not so much about them being there, but how they're actually regulated and monitored. Now, there are around 8.5 million chickens on permitted units in Powys. Around 77,000 people have signed a change.org petition 'Save the River Wye!' and they're demanding a moratorium on all new poultry units in Powys. Their wish is for a moratorium to be in place until the full environmental and community impacts of existing units are assessed. So, I do welcome the fact that NRW is carrying out a detailed review of data to better understand the cause of the increased algal blooms in the River Wye. Now, according to the Wye and Usk Foundation, NRW stated in a public meeting last week that they expect the review to show that the upper Wye has been exceeding its permitted phosphate levels for at least the last four years. So, should what NRW advised be correct, what urgent steps will you take to tackle the level of phosphates in the river, and will those measures include a temporary moratorium?

Well, I don't want to predict what NRW will say. I'm not aware of the comments to which you refer in a public meeting last week. I obviously wasn't there myself. I can't pre-empt any recommendations that NRW come forward with until they do.

For me, the concern is that there's a real risk of our farmers being negatively portrayed. Poultry producers are highly monitored and routinely inspected, but it must also be acknowledged that when applying for IPUs, applicants have to undertake steps such as conservation plans, manure management plans, and pollution prevention plans. The River Axe catchment in Devon has used a three-year regulatory farm visit campaign to undertake advice-led regulatory audits. These visits led to infrastructure improvements. In fact, every pound spent by the Environment Agency in regulatory visits resulted in investment of £33 for infrastructure improvements. Will you look to support farmers where they wish to invest in relevant infrastructure improvements, and confirm that any future actions will not only be in relation to agriculture, but will tackle issues like warm water temperatures and sewage treatment works too?   

The Member will be aware that, earlier this year—around Easter time—I laid draft agricultural pollution regulations. At the time, and probably for the previous three years, when agricultural pollution was discussed, I made it very clear that we would look to support our farmers if they were looking for new infrastructure, for example, in order to deal with agricultural pollution and to avoid agricultural pollution, which of course the majority of farmers do. What I did say is that I would not give funding to bring them up to be compliant. I expect them to be compliant. We are seeing far too many incidents of agricultural pollution and, as I say, the draft regulations are there for people to look at. It was really important that they were laid for transparency, and I will be looking to take further steps in relation to the regulations. Poultry producers are highly monitored and routinely inspected. I have committed not to do anything while we are at the height of the pandemic, but, clearly, we are still seeing incidents of agricultural pollution that will need to be dealt with.