Part of 4. Topical Questions – in the Senedd at 4:13 pm on 11 November 2020.
Yes, I'll happily deal with the last point first, as it were, on Wales receiving its fair share. That is absolutely going to happen. So, the advance procurement of this by the UK Government, there's already agreement as to how that will be distributed and there's a clear written agreement between the nations on that, and Wales, as other UK nations, will get a Barnett population share. So, we'll get 4.78 per cent of the total stock. And it will then be our responsibility and our choice as to how that is distributed to people here in Wales.
On your first point, I think it's helpful to, again, take a step back and remind ourselves that the vaccine isn't available today, and there are many other vaccine candidates as well. So, it is possible that there could be a potential hold-up in this gaining approval by regulators, and that's really important. So, we can't yet model that in, because we don't know that it's available. And so that will be both the safety and effectiveness of their safety data—that'll have to be published—then our medicines regulator will be able to make choices and make decisions about when or if it can become available.
We'll then need to try to model in what that looks like. We'll need to have a modelled understanding of how we go about not just the delivery, but the potential impact on the population. But, again, that depends on the exact characteristics of the vaccine, which we don't yet understand. It could be possible that this vaccine is highly effective in our most at-risk groups. It's also possible that the vaccine could be less effective in the groups at most risk of the greatest harm. So, we need to know all of those things before we provide some sort of modelled evidence. What I can say though is that, as we are providing weekly briefings to the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee and also providing regular information opportunities, we'll make sure that, as we're developing that and as we have some more certainty to provide, we'll share that with Members and with the public. We're not looking to keep secret the potential impacts of a vaccine, but we all need to take account of the fact that it is still some months away before it would have an impact.
What we should not do, given all of the hard work and sacrifice we've just gone through with the firebreak, is to potentially throw that away by acting as if the vaccine is here today. Our behaviour today and for the coming weeks will determine how many of us are here to celebrate with each other at the end of this year and going into the new year. A vaccine may have an impact going into the new year, but at this point in time, it's really important to continue to behave and to continue to change our behaviour to keep each other safe, and again, as we've said many times before, to think now about what we should do to keep each other safe.