Questions now from the party leaders. The Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price. 

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, in what has been the toughest year in living memory for so many of us, I'm sure we all look forward to a happier new year and, before then, to spending time with friends and family over Christmas. A compassionate but responsible approach to a limited relaxation of restrictions over the holiday period seems sensible. However, it's also crucial that we don't lose the hard-gotten gains of the last few months for the sake of four or five days, and people must, therefore, know that any relaxation also comes with risks, especially in the context of the reversal, potentially, that you were referring to earlier. Can you say what scientific modelling is being used to inform the discussions on a four-nation approach to the Christmas period, and what's your understanding of the likely impact of any easing of restrictions? Given that individual behaviour will be a crucial factor in determining what follows the Christmas break, will the Welsh Government launch a public information campaign, such as the powerful campaigns we see each year on drink-driving over the festive period, encouraging people to follow the guidelines so that we can all enjoy a better 2021? 

Well, Llywydd, I thank Adam Price for that, and I think he put it very well, that, while, for many people, having an opportunity to meet with family and friends over the festive period is very important, we have to balance so many things in allowing that to happen. Now, there will be a COBRA meeting later this afternoon, which will be the latest coming together of the four nations of the United Kingdom, to fashion a common approach to Christmas, and I'm very hopeful that we will be able to make further progress on that this afternoon. The modelling that we have available to us there comes through SAGE. 

When we met on Saturday, we specifically asked the four chief medical officers to meet between the Saturday meeting and the meeting later today to give us further advice on a number of aspects of potential easing over Christmas that we rehearsed in the Saturday meeting, and that will be available to us this afternoon. But, I agree with the point that Adam Price made that, whatever additional freedom we are able to offer over the Christmas period will have to be used responsibly by people. The fact that a relaxation is possible is not an instruction to go and spend the whole of that period doing risky things, and the leader of Plaid Cymru asked what the impact of any relaxation over Christmas would be, and while I don't have a quantifiable answer to that at the moment, the general answer is very clear: it will lead to more spreading of coronavirus, because coronavirus thrives when people get together, and the more people get together, the more coronavirus there will be. It's why, Llywydd, I have been arguing in the meetings we have had for a focus not just on a small number of days at Christmas itself, but on decisions we need to take in the lead-up to Christmas, and how we will deal with the aftermath, and to try to do that on a broadly common basis as well. 

On the information campaign—the final question—the Welsh Government has an information campaign planned. It will do many of the things that Adam Price mentioned in trying to drive home to people the consequences of people's behaviour, and the ways in which, by doing the right things, we can all make a contribution to having a Christmas that we can enjoy without running those undue risks.

On Saturday, Merthyr Tydfil became the first county in Wales to pilot mass testing, but on the same day, COVID cases per 100,000 of the population in a seven-day period were higher in Blaenau Gwent and Neath Port Talbot. This highlights an inconsistency currently in the way we're dealing with areas of high COVID transmission. When we supported the firebreak, it was on the condition that the test and trace system would be upgraded, accelerated and expanded to include the testing of asymptomatic individuals.

Small independent nations, as we've referred earlier, like Slovakia, have successfully rolled out a nationwide mass testing programme. China has been conducting mass testing of three cities over the weekend. We'd like to see it rolled out in more target areas, supported by an increased £800 isolation payment. When, First Minister, will we be able to turn the Merthyr pilot into a wider programme of mass rapid testing in Wales?

Well, Llywydd, I think it's just important to remind Members that when Merthyr was identified as the first place where we would carry out a mass testing experiment in Wales, it was—as it was for a number of days—by far the largest area of incidence of coronavirus. Others have overtaken it in the meantime but, in the planning, you've got to start with the figures that are in front of you at that time.

I know there will be a question later this afternoon, Llywydd, but just to say that the early days of mass testing in Merthyr have gone very well and are a tribute to the actions of local organisations, but also citizens, in that area. We will learn a lot from doing it; we can be sure of that. We are already learning things from these very early days. There are already proposals for expanding mass testing into other areas. There will be choices to be made, Llywydd, and they won't be easy choices either.

I referred in my answer to the first question to the fact that we might be able to use lateral flow tests to assist in preventing children from being asked to self-isolate in the school setting. We talked, I think, last week on the floor of the Senedd about using lateral flow devices to allow visits to care homes, and we could use lateral flow devices to have a greater scope of mass testing in Wales.

But there is a finite number of them. We expect to have around 90,000 of them a day available to us here in Wales, but they would very soon be used up from a number of the purposes that I have just outlined. So, it will be a balancing act. It'll be trying to prioritise where we use them. There will be some more opportunities for further mass testing, but there will be other important purposes for which that finite supply of such tests can also be deployed in Wales.

Turning to matters vaccine-related, where we've had some further good news recently, just 10 days after we heard the first bit of encouraging news in relation to the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine proving to be 90 per cent effective in trials, the Scottish Government's health Secretary presented a comprehensive roll-out plan to the Holyrood Parliament. In that statement, they confirmed the first vaccinations would be available to health and social care staff, older care home residents, and those over 80 years old who live in the community. The next phase then would be for those over 65 and those under 65 who are at additional clinical risk, followed by the wider population over the age of 18.

They hope to have 320,000 doses of that vaccine to deploy in the first two weeks of December, subject to regulatory approval, with an ambition to vaccinate 1 million citizens by the end of the January. The health Secretary there said Scotland is ready for December. December is only a week away. Can the First Minister confirm that Wales, too, is ready, and if so, when can we expect to see details of the Welsh Government's vaccination roll-out programme, including a timeline of who will be vaccinated when?

Llywydd, on the who will be vaccinated and when, we have already said that we will follow the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation advice in relation to prioritisation. That advice is still being refined on the basis of the emerging evidence of which of the vaccines that are being reported are most suitable for different groups within the population. We have a very active planning group that began work back in May of this year and has met regularly throughout the crisis to make sure that we are well equipped for deploying the vaccines as they become available to us in Wales. We have tried, during the whole crisis, Llywydd, to follow this basic premise in Wales, that we plan first and when we have a plan that we think is useable and workable, then we publish it for people to see, rather than a series of ambitions that then turn out not to be deliverable because the ambitions are inevitably founded on information that is not as reliable as you need for a purposeful plan that you can deliver in practice.

When it comes to it, I doubt very much that the JCVI prioritisation list will be very different to the one that Mr Price recounted from the Scottish Government, but we will wait for a short while—it will only be a short while—until we have that further and reliable information about the numbers of vaccines that we will have available to us, the nature of those vaccines, the priority groups to which they will be deployed, and then, of course, we will make sure that that is made public as soon as we're able to so that people in Wales have, as I say, not a series of ambitions but a practical plan that they can rely on.

The leader of the Conservatives, Paul Davies.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, yesterday the health Minister confirmed that the Welsh Government is considering tighter COVID restrictions in the run-up to Christmas. Can you confirm what restrictions you are now considering, given that you have already introduced local authority based restrictions, hyperlocal lockdown restrictions, and now national restrictions?

Well, Llywydd, the basis for what the health Minister said yesterday is to be found in the figures, and I'm sure that the leader of the opposition has been following them, as I do every day. Following two weeks and more of figures falling on a Wales-wide basis, we've now had three days in a row where the Wales-wide figure has risen, and in today's figures, 17 of the 22 local authorities are reporting rises in the under 25-year-old age range. Now, numbers continue to fall in the over 60 age range, and that's good news, because in terms of impact on the health service we know that that is where people are most likely to be most badly affected by the virus. But we also know, from earlier in the autumn, that the rapid rise we saw in the month of September and into October started with a rise in the younger population. So, it's that background that was there when the health Minister said what he said yesterday, and it's part of what I said to Adam Price, that I have been making the case in the meetings we've had with the other nations of the United Kingdom for a broadly aligned approach not just for the narrow period of Christmas but in the run-up to Christmas and in the post-Christmas period.

So, we have followed carefully what the UK Government has said so far this week about a return to a recalibrated tier system in England. We will wait to have further information on that, possibly this afternoon, and again on Thursday, and then, this week, the Cabinet will meet pretty regularly. We met yesterday. We met this morning. We'll meet again before the end of the week to see whether there are further measures that we need to introduce in Wales, to focus on the nature of the rise we are seeing and which would provide us with that broad alignment with the approach being taken by other parts of the United Kingdom as part of creating that headroom we all need to allow a relaxation over the Christmas period.

I take it from that answer, then, First Minister, that you are perhaps looking at the possibility of introducing some sort of tiered system here in Wales. Of course, the tiered approaches in Scotland and England do have a few differences and it's important that the Welsh Government therefore looks at the impact of both sets of tier based restrictions before confirming its approach for Wales. 

Now, this year has been so difficult for so many, as has just been said earlier, and that's why it's important that the Welsh Government makes it clear to the people of Wales exactly what a new approach will look like and how those restrictions will impact people's day-to-day lives. So, perhaps you can give us an indication, First Minister, when you will be bringing forward these new measures. Can you also tell us what additional resources you'll be making available to actually support these new measures and new restrictions? 

Well, Llywydd, I think I've given some indication, as best I can, to the leader of the opposition already of the decision-making path that we see in front of us. There is a COBRA meeting this afternoon. I agree with the point that Paul Davies made about taking account of the different approaches in Scotland as well as in England. I spoke with the First Minister of Scotland again yesterday. After today's meeting, there are further announcements that we will expect in the English context on Thursday of this week, we are told, which will give us a further insight into the operation of their tiered approach. I wouldn't move immediately, as the leader of the opposition did, to a conclusion that, because we are interested in the measures that are being taken elsewhere that that necessarily means that we will be adopting a tiered approach here in Wales. It is the content of the measures, not simply the organisation of them, that we will be interested in.

The Cabinet will meet again before the end of this week to see whether there are lessons for us to draw from what is happening elsewhere and a common approach across the United Kingdom in the lead up to the Christmas period, and importantly as well, in the way in which we will all have to deal with the inevitable consequences of a relaxation, which will drive the rise of coronavirus. That is inevitable, and we need to prepare together to cope with the consequences.  

Of course, it's not just individuals and families who are keen to know whether there will be any changes in restrictions in Wales. Businesses across Wales will also undoubtedly be anxious at the prospect of further restrictions. The run-up to Christmas is a busy time, of course, for businesses in all sectors, and in the wake of a very difficult year, it's understandable that many will be concerned, perhaps, to hear of further restrictions.

It's therefore absolutely critical that resources and support are put in place in advance of any changes so that businesses are able to plan and adjust their operations accordingly. Will you therefore confirm, First Minister, that the Welsh Government will, of course, notify businesses across Wales in advance of any new restrictions in Wales so that they have time to plan for any changes? And, can you also update us on the discussions that you've had with local authorities in Wales about introducing new restrictions and what feedback you've received from local authorities so far with any potential restrictions?

Well, Llywydd, I'm very conscious of the impact of the decisions that we make on businesses in Wales and on people's livelihoods. The Welsh Government has put together a very considerable sum of money that we have invested in trying to protect businesses in Wales from the impact of coronavirus—that is over and above any help that has come from the UK Government. And the UK Government, with the comprehensive spending review tomorrow, needs to make sure that it is doing everything it can to make sure that businesses in Wales and across the United Kingdom are in a position to withstand the ongoing impact of coronavirus, and it needs to do it in a more wholehearted way. The repeated re-announcements by the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the package of assistance that comes from the UK Government has not been helpful, I think. We are doing the most we can in Wales to help businesses; I think the Chancellor's approach is to do the least he can get away with, and that is the real contrast between us.

Discussions with local authorities, of course, go on all the time. There'll be meetings today involving the health Minister, the local government Minister, the education Minister, the Welsh Local Government Association and other leaders of local authorities in Wales, and that partnership approach is the one that we think has managed to sustain us through the crisis to date, and we will be certain that, in Wales, we will go on being committed to it.