Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:23 pm on 1 December 2020.
I'd just like to read some of the details of e-mails that I've sent to people who'd been asking for information regarding the decisions that have been taken and the evidence behind it. This morning, I've been looking at the SAGE committee advice, in which it says, and I'll just quote from the SAGE paper of 19 November,
'In England, in tier 1, many Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLAs) had positive growth rates both before and after the introduction of tiers. In tier 2, the epidemic in some but not all LTLAs was shrinking after the introduction of tiers, with almost all of these areas having a reduction in growth rate as a result of the intervention but with many nonetheless remaining positive. All tier 3 LTLAs (where prevalence was generally highest) had negative growth rates after the introduction of tiers, and in all these areas the growth rate had decreased as a result of the intervention.'
So, what we've seen in England is that the tier 3 rates recognised by SAGE are the ones that are not only most effective, but are most likely to be effective. With tier 2, you have no guarantees, and tier 1, according to SAGE, is barely effective at all. That is according to the advice on 19 November, which is freely available. And tier 3, of course, relates then to the consumption of alcohol. And it's the same rules that are in place in England with regard to the closure of premises in tier 3, and in Scotland, where very similar rules to those in Wales have been introduced. So, there is a logic behind what the Government has done based on that SAGE advice from those epidemiologists, behaviourologists—who are part of SAGE—and clinicians.
One of the things I would say to the First Minister, though, having been on Facebook last night, is that as we're speaking right now, there is a lot of frustration and anger out there with regard to this decision, and my job has been to explain to people the rationale behind the decision and the fact that it is designed to save lives. I think the projected number of deaths that the First Minister has identified has been in the thousands if we do not take action. So, I see what the First Minister said about being popular, and I understand that you have to take the right decisions. But one thing I would say, and I make this point to the First Minister, is that the technical advisory cell note is updated every Thursday, and—I say to Adam Price—the technical advisory cell note was last updated on 20 November. We would expect one this week, but it's on a Thursday. It should be when the decision is announced, and therefore we would like to have seen that technical advisory cell note to the Welsh Government on Monday, not on Thursday. So, please could the First Minister expedite that, and get that out before Thursday so we can have that information that relates back to that SAGE advice?
Finally, a question on Facebook I've had. The travel restrictions—when will that announcement be made? Because as the English lockdown ends, people are wondering whether they can travel to England.