Questions now from the party leaders. The Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, a study recently published by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has found that mass testing in Slovakia, which we've discussed before, coupled with other measures—additional support for people who are self-isolating—brought the infection rate down by 60 per cent, which is considerably higher than the impact of the recent lockdown, for example, the circuit-breaker, in England. The study found that, due to the nature of the test used in Slovakia, they probably picked up 90 per cent of the people who were tested and were infected in that time, whereas in Liverpool the evidence there suggests that rapid tests have missed 50 per cent of all infections and 30 per cent of those with a high viral load. The technical advisory cell advice published today says that while there are new technologies that will enable more rapid testing, they're not a silver bullet, but the TAC's advice predates this new evidence that I've referred to. So, can you ask TAC to look again and undertake modelling to assess the likely impact of a Slovak-style mass testing programme in Wales as a more effective means of suppressing the virus and an alternative to cycling in and out of higher restrictions?

Llywydd, I'm very happy to ask the technical advisory group to do that. They, in any case, constantly update their advice based on emerging evidence, and particularly emerging evidence that is reported in reputable scientific journals of the sort to which Adam Price referred. We have our mass testing programme still going ahead in Merthyr Tydfil, expanded, as the Member will know, into the Cynon Valley over the weekend; we're learning a lot ourselves from doing it. I think it's quite important, Llywydd, to make a distinction between those lateral flow devices that we are using, which, essentially, pick up people who are infectious to others. So, they pick up people a couple of days before symptoms begin, and they continue to pick up people who are infectious for about five days or so beyond that. The PCR tests pick up not people who are infectious, but people who are both infectious and infected, and you can be infected for up to eight weeks beyond the point at which you were infectious to anybody else. PCR tests pick up the very last remnants of coronavirus that still may be circulating in somebody's system. So, it's important to be clear about what the purpose of the test is. I remain sure, myself, that the lateral flow devices that we are using in Wales have a part to play, provided it is carefully understood and properly calibrated.

Thank you for that, First Minister. In the TAC advice that I just referred to, they do say that a period of pre-isolation for families with children, as a result of school closures, could reduce the level of social mixing ahead of the 23 to 28 December period, and therefore have a beneficial effect in terms of saving lives. Are you considering this as an option, First Minister, and if you are, could you say when you would plan on announcing it? And what mitigating measures would you put in place, in the form of blended learning, the continued operation of hub schools, for example, to minimise wider harms, and would you agree that it's essential that no child's education or wider welfare should be unfairly disadvantaged as a result of this? Can you give an assurance that the key workers in the NHS and other sectors shouldn't be put in the invidious position of having to choose between turning up for work or looking after their children during this period?

Llywydd, the final points that Adam Price made are exactly why I want very strongly to endorse today the joint statement made between the Welsh Government and the Welsh Local Government Association, which urges schools to remain open until the last day of term, while recognising that there will be individual sets of circumstances where that will not be possible. Of course, Mr Price is right—I've brought the document with me this afternoon expecting it would be referred to here—that a period of restraint for 10 days before the Christmas period would be to the advantage of all families. The real problem is that we do not have confidence, from the behavioural evidence, that if children are not in school, that they would simply be being kept at home and kept away from the contacts that would otherwise create greater risk. The fear is that children who are not in school will be in even riskier environments.

I know Adam Price will be interested that in the mass testing of schools in Merthyr, the positivity rate—and remember we test every child in secondary schools there—was less than 1 per cent, so, far lower than the positivity rate in the general population, suggesting that being in school is actually very safe for children and young people. If I thought that those young people would genuinely be at home, genuinely self-isolating, genuinely creating that period before Christmas to keep them safe, I'd be attracted to the idea. I'm afraid the risks are that that simply wouldn't happen, that those children would be doing riskier things than they would in school. Better for them to be in school. Particularly, I agree with the points that Adam Price made towards the end about the need for vulnerable children to continue to be offered an education right up to the end of school term and for the children of key workers to be offered that service as well.

Just to be clear, so, in terms of the pre-isolation point then, will Welsh Government be giving wider advice to families in relation to a pre-isolation period?

Finally, on Monday, your colleague the health Minister warned that further restrictions may be necessary in response to the rising level of cases. A few weeks previously, the Deputy Minister for the economy also said that a second firebreak in the new year would be likely. Looking forward, the TAC report does also emphasise the importance of maintaining public support, because, otherwise, that could lead to lower levels of adherence among the public, and the advice says that, ideally, the policy and the rules need to be simple, understandable and achievable, accompanied by a clear rationale with an agreed beginning and end. Would you accept, First Minister, that in some people's minds, there is a lack of clarity at the moment as to where we are headed between now and the spring? What is the strategy for regaining control, reopening eventually and then recovery? And isn't now the time, First Minister, in light of the changing situation, that the Welsh Government presents a new winter plan?

Well, Llywydd, we're at a strange cusp, aren't we, in the career of coronavirus? We have today people being vaccinated for the very first time here in Wales and across the United Kingdom. We have, we hope, the prospect of a further vaccine being considered now by the regulators. We hope that it will gain regulatory approval and that will give us another string in the bow that we need. But, at the same time, in the immediate position, we have a very difficult position in Wales.

All local authorities but one in Wales today show rising numbers. We have authorities in Wales with over 600 and over 500 per 100,000 people who are infected with the virus, and positivity rates of 25 per cent in some parts of Wales. These are incredibly serious figures. Members here will have seen that last week the Welsh ambulance service had to declare a major incident one day, particularly in the south-east of Wales, because our hospitals are so full of people already suffering from the virus that they weren't able to get help to people in the way that we would want to see, the timely way we would want to see, for other serious conditions.

I agree with Adam Price about the struggle to secure public consent for some of the measures that are necessary, and I hope we won't have to rely on people seeing for themselves the fact that the health service isn't able to do what we need it to do before people understand the urgent need for action. We go on trying to explain that every day to people: that the measures we take are simply proportionate to the scale of the difficulty we face, that we have to act together, each one of us in our own lives, to do the right things that will bring the virus under control, and then we will have a path into next year that is different, that will allow us to use the lateral flow devices, the mass testing, the vaccination that will give us a different 2021 to the year we are in. In the meantime, nobody—nobody—should underestimate the seriousness of the position that we are facing in Wales.

Leader of the Conservatives, Paul Davies.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, when you announced the firebreak lockdown in October, you said that this was our best chance of regaining control of the virus and avoiding a much longer and much more damaging national lockdown. However, yesterday it was confirmed that Wales was the only part of the UK where figures were not falling at the end of November. First Minister, before considering introducing any further restrictions, can you tell us what assessments have been carried out in relation to the Welsh Government's firebreak lockdown, given that figures haven't fallen in Wales compared to other parts of the UK? 

Well, Llywydd, assessments have been made of the firebreak period, a period, of course, which his party refused to support here in the Senedd. It was successful; those 17 days did put the career of coronavirus back three weeks earlier than 23 October. It suppressed the R number here in Wales for a three-week period. It did what we had hoped that it would do. The problems we have faced have been in the post-firebreak period, where the virus has circulated faster and further than the modelling would have suggested, and hence the need to take further action again now.

First Minister, we know that infection rates in Wales are 70 per cent higher than when we entered the firebreak in October, and rates have increased by 82 per cent since the end of the firebreak lockdown. Indeed, the fact is that there are now more than 1,800 coronavirus-related patients in hospitals across Wales, which is the highest number since the pandemic began, and it shows that something has seriously gone wrong. And we know that there is still an issue in hospital settings, and clearly, more work needs to be done to tackle hospital-acquired infections, and there are also concerns over transmission rates in household settings, which you as a Government have been saying throughout this pandemic, of course.

Yesterday, as has already been said, the health Minister also warned that the Welsh Government would be looking at whether further measures would be needed to suppress this virus, but the health Minister refused to provide any further details to the people of Wales on what those restrictions would look like and whether they would be concentrated on specific sectors and environments, and whether they would be nationwide restrictions. Therefore, will the First Minister confirm exactly what further measures are now being considered, and is the Welsh Government looking at further restrictions before the Christmas period restrictions, or is the intention to bring in further measures post-Christmas?

Well, Llywydd, all those facts and figures that the leader of the opposition began with are the facts and figures that I put to him last week when he refused to support the measures we took in relation to hospitality; measures that this week, I think, nobody could possibly deny were right and necessary. We need to give those measures an opportunity to make a difference. We need them to be accompanied by actions that people can take in their own lives to assist communities right across Wales to get this virus back—the numbers falling once again. I don't think that means that we will be taking further measures this side of Christmas. But the other side of Christmas, the advice in the TAC report published and referred to by Adam Price is clear on this as well: that a period of relaxation over Christmas will lead to a further rise—yet a further rise, beyond the figures that the Member set out in his further question to me. And that means any responsible Government has to think about the measures that might be needed in order to protect the health service so it can go on doing everything else it has to do at the most pressurised point in any year, and to prevent avoidable deaths.

I look forward, Llywydd, to the support of the Conservative Party here in Wales for measures that will be necessary, because up until now, that support has been conspicuous by its absence.

That's not true, First Minister, because the fact of the matter is, this side of the Chamber have actually supported the majority of your coronavirus regulations that have actually been tabled since the end of March. So, it's not true to say that we haven't supported your coronavirus regulations on the whole. But what the people of Wales need now, First Minister, is hope: hope at the end of what has been a very difficult year.

Today marks a landmark moment as coronavirus vaccinations begin to be rolled out in Wales, and I'm pleased that a four-nation approach across the UK has been able to procure vaccines for all parts of the country. Now, I understand that the UK has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and, as a result, Wales will have 40,000 doses of the vaccine, which equates to enough for nearly 20,000 people across the country. Of course, it's incredibly important that there is sufficient capacity in the NHS to roll out the vaccine effectively, and, as part of making capacity and resources available, I hope the Welsh Government has considered the role that community pharmacists and perhaps even retired clinicians can play in helping administer the vaccine across Wales as smoothly as possible. So, First Minister, can you tell us what strategic discussions are taking place with health boards across Wales to ensure that there is sufficient capacity and staff available to roll out the vaccine effectively? Can you also tell us what discussions are taking place with retired clinicians and indeed other medical professionals about the role that they could play in helping with the roll-out? And has the Welsh Government had any discussions with community pharmacists about the role they could play in administering the vaccine in communities right across Wales?

Llywydd, let me end this part of our proceedings by agreeing with the leader of the opposition. This is a moment where hope is really important to people. This has been such a long and difficult year in the lives of so many people here in Wales, and today, when the vaccine is being used for the first time, it does give us that glimmer of light at the end of what is still a long tunnel in front of us. The fact that we have been able to agree all this on a four-nation basis is something that I am very keen to welcome. I was very pleased to be part of the agreement on how the vaccine should be distributed. I know my colleague Vaughan Gething has met the other health Ministers on a weekly basis right through November and met again yesterday to make sure that we have a common sense of what this vaccine can do, how it can best be deployed. And the 40,000 doses that we're getting from the first batch of the vaccine is our population share of it.

Now, we've been part of planning on this, Llywydd, since June of this year, when the first all-Wales programme board was set up for vaccination, and we are, I believe, as well prepared for it as we could be. I agree that, as the volume of vaccination grows, we will need to draw more people into the pool of people able to carry out vaccination. All health boards have plans to recruit people into that pool to make sure that they are properly trained, they're properly accredited, and that their work is supervised by experienced clinicians. As it happens, I also know that my colleague the health Minister is meeting Community Pharmacy Wales next week, so there will definitely be opportunities to talk about the contribution that community pharmacy can make in this field. But the level of preparation we have in Wales, the commitment that has been shown by existing staff who've come forward to offer their services as vaccinators, I think can add to that sense of hope that we can offer people here in Wales today that next year will be a different year to the one that we've all experienced in 2020.

Question 3, Carwyn Jones. 

Diolch, Llywydd. I was remuted by the powers that be there.