I want to address the issues facing the hospitality sector, specifically the 6 p.m. closure and the prohibition of sales of alcohol in pubs and clubs and restaurants, knowing, quite frankly, that they've been to hell and back this year. They were closed in the first lockdown, then they reopened and they worked to new regulations, they invested in COVID safety measures and personal protective equipment and new outdoor areas, and then they shut again in the autumn firebreak and many of them are effectively shut right now. So, their concerns are real and understandable, and they must be reflected in the Senedd Chamber today.

But so too should the reasons behind these stringent measures and the risk to lives and to our NHS without them. As of today, my neighbouring Neath Port Talbot has 693 cases per 100,000 in the last week; it's the highest in Wales. The county is also one of the four council areas with positivity rates above 20 per cent. But there are 11 other local authorities, from Ceredigion to Monmouthshire, also at their peak for positive cases. Twenty-one out of 22 local authorities are rising dangerously, and Caerau—little Caerau near my home in Maesteg—has the highest localised case rate at nearly 1,780 per 100,000 for the past seven days, with 126 cases. And the wider Bridgend county that Suzy was just talking about has also reached its highest case rate. 

On Tuesday, Welsh Government advisers said the number of people in Wales dying with the virus was above what they had as the worst-case scenario. So, it is the duty of every responsible elected representative in this Chamber to wrestle honestly with the scientific and the medical evidence, not to play to the populist gallery, and to be equally determined and serious about protecting the lives of their constituents as well as their livelihoods. And every Member here, including opposition Members, has to acknowledge that the advice given to Ministers from SAGE and from the TAC group and from the chief medical and scientific advisers is stark—that anything less than the measures now in place would risk the loss of between 1,000 and 1,700 lives. 

These are preventable deaths, unnecessary deaths, deaths of our constituents, our neighbours, our families and friends. So, which one of us is willing to go back to our constituents, who've also been to hell and back over the last year, and say we'll ignore the medical and scientific advice and risk their lives, and then sleep soundly having done so? Pubs and clubs and licensed premises are not the only area of risk, of course, and preventing the sale of alcohol on its own is not a magic solution. But the documented analysis of the transmission risk in the hospitality sector, publicly available, is not simply a model or a forecast of what could happen—it examines what has happened over the last year. It says quite clearly, and I quote, 

'The general picture in the UK (and overseas) is that it has only been possible to get R consistently below 1 in places where there have been substantial restrictions on hospitality. SAGE analysis of tiers, firebreaks and other interventions in the four nations of the UK found that epidemics shrunk in every area subject to Tier 3/3+ in England or with national restrictions in Northern Ireland. All other interventions were followed by a more mixed picture.'

In addition, separate detailed scientific analysis of the different interventions in the four nations and regions of the UK over the autumn period shows again the effectiveness of only the stringent measures in tackling the growth and the spread of the virus. And this is despite the incredible efforts being made by so many in the licensed sector to make their venues COVID safe. Regrettably, the evidence is showing that hospitality settings, and the public behaviour that sometimes flows from alcohol in these settings, is contributing to this higher risk of transmission.

Minister, my pubs and clubs and restaurants now want to know more about the support available to them, acknowledging that the scale of support in Wales, at £340 million, is way beyond the sum of £40 million made available by the Westminster Government for the whole of England. They want to know: how fast can this money be paid out? How simple can the procedures be made for them? What help can they be given to identify the right funding stream and to complete the necessary online forms? Can they appeal if they are rejected or if they make a simple mistake? Will there be more financial support available for licensing costs or on business rates? What more, Minister, can be done to help these businesses get through this crisis?

And finally, can I pay tribute to the pubs and clubs and the restaurants, in my area and Wales, who have done their absolute best to run their businesses safely and keep jobs going, despite the virus? I ask Welsh Government to continue to put in place every possible measure to support the sector so these jobs and businesses are still there when we've turned the tide on this virus and we can meet again, as soon as possible, over a pint—or maybe even a few more.