Questions now from the party leaders. First of all, the leader of the Conservatives, Paul Davies. 

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, as you know, unfortunately, Wales has the highest COVID-19 infection rate in the UK, and eight of the UK's top-10 worst infected areas are currently in Wales, with Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend all in the top three. Naturally, speculation still remains over whether further measures will be introduced and how those restrictions could affect people's lives and livelihoods. First Minister, with cases so high in Wales, can you tell us when you intend to make a decision on any further restrictions in Wales? And given that the Welsh Government's own coronavirus control plan confirms that a case rate of more than 300 cases per 100,000 people is under alert level 4, can you tell us whether you are now looking to escalate Wales to the next level?

Llywydd, I thank Paul Davies for that question. We will be looking every single day this week at the way that the figures in Wales are moving. I said at my press conference on Friday that unless we see signs that the current rise is being arrested and reversed, then it is inevitable that further measures will be needed. Now, we took an important set of measures a week ago last Friday in relation to attractions and hospitality. We took further measures last week in relation to schools and outdoor attractions. We have to be able to allow those interventions an opportunity to work. If we do not see them working, as I said on Friday, then it is I think inevitable that further actions will be necessary in order to stem the flow of coronavirus as we see it in Wales today. And I'll be doing that every day this week.

I'm grateful for that answer, First Minister, and I know that the health Minister confirmed yesterday that nothing, of course, is off the table when it comes to more COVID restrictions over Christmas, and I very much accept and understand that, and I appreciate that you'll be having further discussions with other UK Governments later on this afternoon about the Christmas restrictions as well.

Now, of course, Wales has more than twice as many COVID-19 cases compared to other parts of the UK, and two health boards have now confirmed that they will suspend some non-urgent treatment, and so we're also looking at a crisis perhaps actually taking place as well in the new year. You will have seen the concerns of the Welsh Intensive Care Society, which has warned that critical care services will not be able to cope over the winter period without intervention at the highest level, and with the relaxation of rules for a few days over Christmas there will be even more pressure, as you've just said, on NHS services in the coming weeks and months. I'm pleased that the UK Government has today offered to treat non-COVID patients in England to help ease the pressures on Welsh hospitals and to do all it can to help.

Given the seriousness of the issue, can you tell us what assessment the Welsh Government has made of the rise in cases on hospital capacity across Wales? Secondly, in light of the calls for intervention from some in the medical profession, can you tell us what discussions you've had with the local health boards about their plans for delivering elective surgery and routine care over the coming weeks? And can you also tell us whether you will be taking up the UK Government's offer of enabling non-COVID Welsh patients to be treated in English hospitals if necessary?

Llywydd, I think it's fair for me to point out that Wales is, as the leader of the opposition says, at the highest level of coronavirus in the United Kingdom today. At various points, all four nations have been in that position. England was in it earlier in the summer, Northern Ireland was in that position a few weeks ago, Scotland have had the same experience in relation to the central belt. So, this is an evolving pattern in which spikes occur in different places.

As far as capacity in the health service is concerned, there are two sorts of capacity that we're talking about. There's physical capacity in terms of bed numbers: 16 per cent of acute beds in the Welsh NHS are not occupied today. So, physical capacity is stretched, but not stretched to breaking point. The other capacity we're talking about is staff, and that's where the current difficulties I think are at their most acute. We have the highest number of staff at any point during this year who are self-isolating and for other reasons not available to be in work; 1,500 more people last week than was the case in September. And the problem that has been faced in some parts of the NHS, and the reason why some non-urgent treatments are being suspended, is because we simply don't have staff in place to keep everything that the health service wants to do going, and we're having to concentrate the staff resources we have on those most urgent things, including providing for the rising number of people suffering from coronavirus. So, we rely on a regular engagement with all our health boards, to look at the capacity of the system to continue to do things other than coronavirus, and that varies from health board to health board at the moment, but it is a daily engagement that we have with them in order to make sure that, as far as possible, the health service does all the things we would all want it to do.

As to the letter on mutual aid, of course, I will reply to it, once again endorsing the principle of mutual aid that has been there through coronavirus. Wales has supplied 11 million items of PPE to the English NHS during this crisis as part of our mutual aid, and the letter that I've received today restates that, and I'm very happy to once again endorse it.

First Minister, whilst the COVID pandemic continues to escalate in most parts of Wales, there are still some valid concerns from many across the country about the negative consequences of further restrictions, in particular, as you said earlier, the effect on people's mental health. As my colleague the Member for Aberconwy said earlier, last month, Mind Cymru teamed up with researchers at Cardiff and Swansea universities to speak to more than 13,000 people about the impact of the pandemic on mental health in Wales, and their research showed that around half of the participants showed clinically significant psychological distress, with around 20 per cent reporting severe effects. Therefore, we can't be under any illusions that further restrictions could make life difficult for a lot of people, and it's crucial that the Welsh Government signposts support and ensures that mental health services are accessible to those who actually need them.

As the Welsh Government makes its decision on the next steps for Wales, can you tell us what mental health impact assessment has been carried out in relation to any further restrictions? Could you tell us what additional support will be made available to people who need it, and how will the Welsh Government signpost services and encourage people to ask for help should they feel that their mental health is suffering as a result of any further restrictions?

Well, I thank the Member. It's an absolutely important area, of course. It comes up in all the conversations that I have when I'm talking to people beyond the Senedd. It comes up in conversations with our health workers, who've gone through a year not simply torrid in terms of the physical strain of the job that they do, but the emotional wear and tear that it has of seeing people who would otherwise be fit and well suffering from this awful disease. It comes up very regularly in the discussions that I have with young people, who are very alert to the impact that this year will have had on their sense of resilience and looking to the future.

I think what we have learnt through the many different impact assessments that we have done is that mental health services have to be provided in a range of different ways, because the sort of help that any one person might wish will vary from the way that other people will wish to access it. It's why we have the range of services that we do: a 24-hour, seven days a week telephone helpline for people who want to talk to somebody who they don't need to meet again, and for some people that is the best way of dealing with it. They don't want to have a conversation continuously; they want to be able to speak to somebody knowing that that person is skilled and able to help them, and knowing that, when they put the phone down, that's the end of the conversation. Our young people are often inclined to prefer online types of help with mental health and well-being issues. They like to use the exercises and help that is available in that way, and other people would prefer to sit down face-to-face with somebody and know that, if they need to speak to that person again next week, that person will be available to them. We have strengthened all of those strands in the response that we have made over the past months, to try to respond to the impact on people's sense of well-being.

The signposting to those services relies not simply on what the Welsh Government does, but on our partners in the third sector, such as Mind Cymru, and in our public services as well. As we go into next year, where we hope very much that there will be some more reasons for being optimistic that this experience will come to an end, we will still need to attend not just to the immediate impacts of the virus, but the long impact that coronavirus can have on people's physical, but also their mental well-being.

Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price.

Diolch, Llywydd. The UK Prime Minister has repeatedly scored own goals by only partially and belatedly heeding Marcus Rashford's call to provide free schools meals in England. While the Conservative Government has an ideological objection to helping the most vulnerable in society, in Wales, we have a moral obligation. Providing free school meals is one of the best ways of mitigating the worst effects of a second wave of Tory austerity, which will hit the poorest hardest, as the Marmot review, published today, has shown. In its own report in June last year, the Bevan Foundation found a number of shortcomings with the current free school meal system in Wales. The value from the support, they say, is not sufficient to lift enough children out of food poverty. With 180,000 children living in poverty in Wales, do you regret dropping the long-standing target to eradicate child poverty by this year, and does that place a greater responsibility on you now to act?

Llywydd, I think the Welsh Government's record in relation to free school meals during this pandemic will stand up to very close examination. We were the first part of the United Kingdom to guarantee free school meals during the early part of the pandemic, and we were the first part of the United Kingdom to guarantee that we would continue to provide free school meals right through the autumn and into the spring of next year. The allowance that we provide for free school meals per pupil is higher than England, higher than Scotland—in fact, the highest in the United Kingdom.

Of course child poverty matters hugely to us, and there are more things that we would wish to do. It's why, during this term, we have doubled and then doubled again the number of times during a child's school career that they're able to take advantage of what was once called the school uniform grant. As from next calendar year, we will begin to roll out an additional sum of money available to pupils in year 7, the first year of secondary school—an additional sum of money to their free school meal allowance every day to make sure that those children do not have to choose between eating breakfast or eating lunch.

First Minister, as you are aware, the Scottish Government has recently committed to universal free school meals for all primary school children. In 1943, Finland introduced a law clearly requiring free school meals to be served to all children, a policy that is in place still today. And as the Finnish experience has shown—we've modelled much of our education system on them, and actually this commitment is right at the heart of the model, because it's food education in schools, it's a holistic tool that they use to deliver far-reaching benefits beyond the school canteen. Figures from the Child Poverty Action Group show that over 70,000 children living below the poverty line in Wales are not currently eligible for free school meals. To right this wrong, a Plaid Cymru Government would raise the eligibility threshold so that children in every household in receipt of universal credit would receive free school meals, and we'd set a clear timetable to extend free-school-meal provision to every pupil, on the Finnish model, beginning with universal free school meals for infants. First Minister, would you support this endeavour? 

I will want to see the detail of what Plaid Cymru is proposing. In particular, Llywydd, I will want to see where the money is to be taken from in order to pay for such a commitment, because when you are in Government that is the choice you face—that money spent on one purpose cannot be spent on something else. We spend our budget every year right up to the maximum, and this year and next year we will be drawing additional money out of reserves in order to be able to continue to defend our public services here in Wales. So, I will look at the detail of what the Member is proposing, not simply the headline that he's offered us this afternoon, but how much this will cost and where he thinks the money will come from in order to pay for it. And if I can see the detail of that, I'll be happy to consider it. 

Let me agree with what Adam Price said, though, in opening, because, of course, a meal in school is far more than just food. The campaign for free school meals was launched here in Cardiff in 1906 in City Hall here in Cardiff, where the Fabian Society published a pamphlet that has one of my favourite titles of all political pamphlets, because the title of the pamphlet was, 'And they shall have flowers on the table'. It is a beautiful title and what it tells you is that the case for free school meals was not simply feeding children, but it was valuing children. It was telling children who came to school that they were people that their society invested in and wanted to do the best by—'They shall have flowers on the table'. And in the sense of the Finnish experiment and the things that Adam Price said, I absolutely share the view that providing a meal for a child in school is more than just putting food in their stomachs; it is about the value that we place on that child, and the clear signal that we give to them about an investment that society makes in their future. 

I don't need to tell you about the value of progressive universalism; the point of universality is that you ensure then that everyone who needs it gets it. In relation to your point about finite resources, we need to be smart, so we need policies that deliver more than one objective. And so you can see, with universal free school meals, if you link it, for example, with the foundational economy—a square meal produced within the square mile, the foundation phase and the foundational economy, ensuring local procurement, children learning where their food comes from at the same time as helping the local food-producing businesses that were really hammered hard by the pandemic and, who knows, maybe by a 'no deal' Brexit—surely that's the kind of smart policy that we need, First Minister, that delivers to a preventative model savings even in financial terms because of the better health and educational outcomes for the children concerned and, indeed, their economic life chances, but also does it in a holistic way for the economy, for a better environment, for better health at the same time.   

Llywydd, all those arguments were arguments that led a Labour Government to introduce universal free meals in primary schools, because we have free breakfasts in primary schools that are free to all children. And it was exactly that sort of multiple objective that led the Cabinet at the time to find the money to invest in it. Free breakfasts provide food for children who otherwise would go without, they make their learning more effective because they have food in their stomachs and are able to concentrate on their learning, it provides particularly for those families who are on the edge of working, because if you don't have to pay for the child to be looked after or the child to be fed, then your ability to take up a job or to carry out more hours in that work are improved as well. So, the smart bringing together of multiple objectives is exactly what any Government would wish to do and, as I say, you can see it every single day in that progressive and universal service that free breakfasts in our primary schools represent.