Our critical care staff have not had a break and the awful truth is that patient flow out of critical care is not all good news. Some people do recover. However, mortality rates are making a major contribution to freeing up beds. Current mortality rates for COVID patients in critical care, the figures from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, show that in Wales nearly 40 per cent of people admitted since 1 September have passed away. That is not critical care failing—it is the reality of the number of infections that we have seen and are continuing to see.

As was explained when the UK variant of coronavirus was announced, it is not uncommon for viruses to undergo mutations. Routine genomic surveillance has recently identified a new variant in South Africa as well. As at 19 December, that new variant had been found in around 200 samples in South Africa. This new variant is not the same as the UK variant, but does have some similarities. Our scientists are studying the possible impacts on transmissibility, severity of illness and whether there are implications for the effectiveness of vaccines.

It is important to emphasise that the same prevention measures will be effective against the new UK variant and the South African variant—limiting mixing, social distancing, hand hygiene, use of face coverings and ventilation. Quarantine of those who have come into contact with the South African variant will also be vital to stop this variant becoming established across Wales and the UK.

The most recent SAGE estimate of the reproduction number for Wales is predicted to be between 1.0 and 1.3, with growth of around 1 per cent to 4 per cent per day. A doubling time of 19.1 days is estimated by Public Health Wales, using data for the period 5 December to 18 December. Data from the most recent Office for National Statistics infection survey for Wales show that approximately one person in 60 has COVID. This figure is the highest value to date from the ONS survey.

Our latest Public Health Wales data by local authority show that the all-Wales rate is now at 433 per 100,000. As I set out earlier, rates within that are rising across the north and falling elsewhere, but still at a very high rate, with a very high test positivity percentage. 

But there is hope. Since the beginning of December, we have been delivering the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to health and social care staff as well as care home residents and staff and people aged over the age of 80. In the first two weeks, over 22,000 people were vaccinated in Wales, with management information indicating this number is well over 30,000 now. The next official figures will be released tomorrow. I have no reason to believe that Wales will be significantly behind any other UK nation on distribution when those official figures are published tomorrow. I expect that we are keeping pace with every other UK nation.

Today, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has been given the go-ahead by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, and its roll-out across Wales and the rest of the UK will start next week, from Monday. It will arrive in small quantities initially, with more of our population-based allocation arriving each week.

Unlike the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is stored at normal vaccine fridge temperatures. This means it will have fewer storage and transportation issues, making it much easier to use in community settings, such as care homes and primary care. Again, two doses will be needed, albeit the interval can now be moved to 12 weeks between each dose.

This is excellent news for our response to the pandemic and our NHS plans are in place to ensure Wales has the capacity, systems and staff to increase vaccination activity. It is important to be realistic. Whilst plans are in place, the effects of the vaccines may not be seen nationally for many months.

The advice on keeping Wales safe remains the same for everyone, and it is important that everyone realises that they, we, all have a part to play in influencing the level of virus in our communities: to keep contact with other people to a minimum, to keep a 2m distance from others, to wash our hands regularly, wear a face covering where required, and avoid touching surfaces others have touched, wherever possible, and, of course, as I said earlier, good ventilation. The Welsh Government and our NHS cannot do this alone. We all still have a part to play in keeping Wales safe. However we can now do so with a greater sense of optimism for 2021. There really is light at the end of this long, dark tunnel. Thank you, Llywydd.