We move to item 4, which is the statement by the Minister for Education—an update on qualifications for 2021. I call the Minister, Kirsty Williams.

Thank you, acting Presiding Officer. Last week, I announced my intention that learners undertaking WJEC-approved GCSEs, AS-levels and A-levels would have their qualifications awarded through a centre-determined grade model. This decision reflects my priority of supporting learner wellbeing and progression in the reality of the public health and policy context we now find ourselves in. While there is still more work to be done, I hope that the announcement of the centre-determined grade approach—where learners' grades will be determined by their school or college, based on an assessment of their work—will help remove learners' anxiety. This way forward has been developed by the design and delivery advisory group, and puts learner wellbeing and public confidence at the centre of our proposals.

As part of this approach, centres will be able to use a range of evidence to inform their decisions, including non-exam assessments, mock exams and adapted past papers made available by the WJEC. There will be an assessment framework to support them to develop their plans for assessment. This will give schools and colleges flexibility when deciding what assessment information to use as they focus on teaching the core content that will help learners as they progress through the next steps of their education. These assessment plans will be quality assured by the WJEC and demonstrate how the centre has determined a learner's grade. Every school or college will also be required to build on or develop quality assurance processes, and will be supported in doing so by guidance from the WJEC. Once this quality assurance has been completed at the centre, the grade will be submitted to the WJEC.

I have also asked the design and delivery advisory group to consider how to promote greater consistency across centres in delivering our approach. This includes asking them to support Qualifications Wales and the WJEC in developing and setting out both the assessment framework and the quality assurance processes that will be adopted. I recognise that the appeals process is of concern and interest to learners and practitioners alike. I can confirm that learners will be able to appeal to their school or college if they believe they have been awarded a grade that doesn’t reflect their level of attainment, and to the WJEC if they are unhappy with the process followed by their centre. We will work to ensure that clear and accessible information about appeals is made available, and will explore a professional learning offer for practitioners so that the processes that are applied are consistent, equitable, and fair.

In addition to the expertise of the headteachers and college principals on our design and delivery advisory group, who have dedicated so much time to the development of these proposals, the group will expand their membership and will engage with wider stakeholders to support them in the next stage of their work. Part of this work will be giving consideration to the equalities and workload impacts of any new arrangements, alongside the development of guidance, communications and professional learning that will support schools and colleges in their professional judgements. I have also asked the group to consider arrangements for private candidates as a priority. I recognise that there are some private candidates who are concerned about a centre-determined grade approach, as not all private candidates were able to receive a qualification under the arrangements made last year. I would therefore like to reiterate my absolute commitment to ensuring that there is a clear option for them to support their progression.

In summary, the centre-determined grade approach puts trust in teachers' and lecturers' commitment to prioritise teaching and learning in the time available, and their knowledge of the quality of their learners' work. Teaching the core content and aspects of each course, however, remains extremely important, so that all learners are supported to progress with certainty into their next steps and with confidence in the grades they’ve been awarded. We have, therefore, sought to make the grading approach as clear as possible in the circumstances, while remaining as simple and responsive as possible.

We are working with colleges and universities to look at how they can support learners through this transition and I am very grateful for their ongoing commitment and support. It is vital that the wider education sector continues to come together in this way to support our learners, including by strengthening professional judgments through support that ensures consistent and transparent arrangements. Qualifications Wales is also considering the approach for other Wales-only qualifications, including the skills challenge certificate, Essential Skills Wales and approved vocational qualifications. They are also working closely with fellow UK regulators to ensure consistency of approach and fairness for Welsh learners studying for vocational qualifications that are also available in other nations.

As we continue to work at pace to develop our proposals, I encourage learners, teachers and lecturers to continue to focus on learning in the core areas of their courses in the coming weeks. It is this learning and the development of associated skills and knowledge that will continue to open doors for learners in the future, even after the qualification itself has been awarded. I want to thank each and every learner and educational professional for their ongoing flexibility and adaptability in responding to the situation in which we find ourselves. Thank you, acting Presiding Officer. 

Can I just offer my thanks to the design and delivery advisory group as well? I don't suppose they were expecting to do this work. I think the necessity for your announcement last week and this statement today, Minister, shows how close we are to the edge with education at the moment, and I know you're making decisions that you'd rather not make. So, my questions today are no reflection on teachers and lecturers, who, I have to say, continue to astound me during this period. But that statement today is evidence that online learning is not hitting its mark and, I think, by half term, we'd all be expecting you to tell us your plan A, your plan B and your plan C for getting schools open by the end of next month. 

Last autumn, Qualifications Wales was adamant that it would not be possible to create and introduce a reliable moderation system for what were, then, centre-assessed grades. The framework you're talking about today can only be a pale imitation of something that was impossible six months ago. So, how close to not being able to comply with its statutory duties has this decision pushed Qualifications Wales, and, for that matter, the WJEC? And how confident are you that this new way forward will ensure public confidence in our young people's achievements, as well as protecting teachers from accusations of unconscious bias, however unjustified those are?

If the WJEC can offer adapted past papers to schools—you mentioned them today, and there's a strong hint there, isn't there, that they should be picked up and used for internal tests, graded in line with helpful WJEC guidance—why is it so difficult for the WJEC to set these papers formally in May or June, and mark them, bringing in a clear and external sign of consistency and rigour to the system? What can you tell us about how the WJEC is going to be able to quality assure every single school or college's internal process for assessment in time? If it decides that some schools already have a strong process, which falls within their guidance, how will that empower a young person to challenge a school on its process? More importantly, what if a school that the WJEC hasn't got round to seeing claims its process is equal to or better than a WJEC-sanctioned version?

You mentioned professional learning. Which practitioners do you envisage will need this grading training? You can't seriously expect it to be every teacher or lecturer in years 10 to 13. And as for non-exam assessments, they're already not going to be moderated, but you do urge schools to continue doing them. Which way do you think this is going to go? Is it going to be schools maximising their use, if the weighting given to them in the new framework encourages that, or schools and colleges minimising their use to do more teaching to a test in order to get up the evidence of graded work? Because not all schools have been canny enough to carry out topic testing as they've gone along this year. 

And then, just briefly from me, AS levels. Why won't they count towards a student's final grade? Either you have confidence in the system or you don't. I think maybe you should consider offering them the choice—the students who are doing AS this year—whether to bank their grade or not. And, if you have a moment, perhaps you can just give us an idea of the timetable when we might hear some more information about private candidates and the UK-wide vocational qualifications. Thank you.

Thank you, Suzy Davies, for your questions and your acknowledgement of the hard work of the design and delivery group, as I said, made up of headteachers and college principals who have worked at great speed to provide advice and guidance. I'm grateful that they have agreed to continue to do that work with an expanded membership now, as we move into the next phase of operationalising the decisions that have been made.

Suzy quite rightly points out the challenges of the centre-determined grades system. All methods of assessment have their upsides and their downsides, and the job is, having decided on an assessment mechanism, how you can mitigate the downsides. Ensuring that there is a consistent moderation scheme when each school's experience during this last year will have been so very, very different does provide real challenges for creating that moderation system, especially if there are pieces of work that have not been possible to complete in some schools. So, you could end up in a situation where you are comparing apples with pears rather than apples with apples. That's the challenge of designing a moderation system in the current climate, but we can take steps to mitigate against that, and that is what the design and delivery group will be aiming to work towards.

With regard to WJEC assessments, this is a tool that will be available to schools. Some schools potentially will have lots and lots and lots of material on which to base a centre-determined grade. Other individual classes, teachers, schools perhaps would like some additional support and help, and rather than designing their own, they will be able to avail themselves of material that is quality assured, equalities assured, and has gone through all the processes that you would expect a WJEC assessment to go through. I believe that will offer a valuable opportunity for schools to avail themselves of, but clearly that is a matter for individual schools. But I think it is a valuable resource that the WJEC will make available, and can play an important part in helping teachers assess children and designate a grade.

With regard to training, that is for individual teachers to identify the training needs within their individual workforce, and which individuals within their school perhaps are crucial in terms of operating the system, and additional training will be made available. What we have learnt—one of the very few silver linings of this entire pandemic—is that we have transformed the way that we have been able to deliver professional learning, and I am confident that we'll be in a position where those schools that want to or need to avail themselves of this additional support will be able to do so.

The evaluation process of the school's procedures is an important part of creating that national approach and that equity and fairness. That's why we will be working initially on the assessment tools, and an assessment framework that will be a national framework, and it is then for schools to identify how they will utilise that framework within their individual setting, and for the WJEC to assure that. With regards to the appeals process, it's only right that, in the first instance, if a candidate is unhappy with the grade they have been designated, then that has to be an appeal to the people who designated the grade. It's simply impossible to make an appeal to the WJEC, who will not have played a part in designating that grade. But clearly, having the WJEC assure a school's processes, if a candidate feels that the school's processes have not been correctly applied, then it is perfectly appropriate in those instances that the WJEC would be responsible for the appeals process.

Finally, with regard to AS-levels, the arguments that we rehearsed last year about how UCAS scores are designated in AS-levels, and how that translates into A-levels, still stand. In the absence of being able to run exams or, indeed, our initial procedures, we will revert to the policy that existed this year. All AS candidates will be designated a grade. That is important for those candidates who are deciding not to continue with that subject, but it's only fair that their learning to date for that qualification is awarded and, of course, many students feel that it is very, very valuable to have those grades when it comes to their UCAS application, but their A2 exams—and I hope, my goodness me, that we're in a position to run those examinations—that tier will be the basis on which their entire A-level will be awarded. 

Thank you for the statement. I want to take the opportunity this afternoon to mention Louise Casella's review, which was commissioned by you following the exams fiasco of last year. At last, on Friday afternoon the independent review of the summer 2020 arrangements for the awarding of grades and considerations for the summer of 2021 was published; it's a lengthy title. This was the final version and it hasn't had a great deal of coverage, so I'm going to take this opportunity to set out some of the main conclusions and to put them on the record today, because I do believe that they are exceptionally important. I'm very grateful to Louise Casella and her team for the thorough work that they undertook and for their stark conclusions. The Welsh Government and the education system as a whole need to pay close attention to this review. 

The report notes that a number of mistakes were made that could have been avoided, and that was by the WJEC and Qualifications Wales. The errors included failing to anticipate the scale of the issues that would arise, and the risk of inequality for so many individual learners as a result of the lack of action by those two bodies. Specifically in terms of moderation, the report states this:

'Qualifications Wales and WJEC did consider whether some form of external moderation of the CAGs could be undertaken prior to final submission, but this option was dismissed with the assumptions underpinning that decision not being fully tested. The right for WJEC to go back to centres submitting CAGs that appeared out of line with expectation was also reserved, and expected by centres, but this did not take place.

Without external moderation of the decisions reached in assigning CAGs and rank orders, and without training of assessors to ensure the avoidance of any bias in arriving at CAGs, total reliance was being placed on the statistical standardisation processes to ensure fairness between centres.' 

And I have quoted there from the report itself, and in weighing up what I have just described, the review does come to this conclusion, and I quote once again,

'This is akin to a failure of leadership and governance in relation to the arrangements for deciding on grades during the summer of 2020.'

Now, this is a damning verdict but, again, it's the same people who are in charge in both of these bodies, and they continue to have great influence on the process since the fiasco in 2020, which created so much concern to so many young people. 

In conclusion, I would like to ask you, Minister, therefore, whether you have considered dismissing some of the people who run the WJEC and Qualifications Wales in light of the findings of the damning Casella report, or have you at least considered a further review of your own to see whether steps of this kind need to be taken? And if you're not considering a further review in order to decide whether further action is required, will you explain why?

Thank you very much, Siân, for your comments. We've had an independent review. You have quoted at length from its report. I do not feel that there is any need, or indeed any further help a further review at this time will be. What we need now is to ensure that the lessons of the Louise Casella report are learnt. If the Member was being fair, I'm sure she would acknowledge that already in the way in which we have handled this situation, both within this Government and without the Government, is reflective of the recommendations, first of all, in the initial report by Louise Casella's group, and in the subsequent full report.

I'm very grateful to Louise and her team for the work that they have done. There are, as I said, valuable lessons to be learnt, which are already being enacted by myself and those that are working with us, to ensure that the awarding of qualifications this year does not cause the distress and difficulties that it did for learners and educators last year.

It is very important that we make the distinction between how last year's grades were arrived at and how this year's grades were arrived at. Last year, the standardisation, as was pointed out in Louise's report, relied too heavily on an algorithm, to ensure that there was fairness across the system, and to try and mitigate the concerns that we will have to try and mitigate again this year, which are legitimate concerns about unintentional bias, about how this system potentially has equalities impacts, as was outlined in previous reviews of last year's centre-assessed grades. We need, now, to mitigate against that, and that is what everybody that is working on qualifications for this year is committed to doing.

Thank you very much for your detailed statement. We're both of the female species, so obviously we're not unfamiliar with the concept of discrimination, so I just want to address the challenges that any system faces in addressing gender, ethnicity, physical appearance, prior learning difficulty, that consciously or subconsciously, any human being is capable of making. We've got lots of research to back all that up, and we also know that some schools are much better at accurately predicting attainment based on under- or over-predicting what they were going to do in exams and then—. And all of this, of course, is very important to get right, to ensure we are challenging students and teachers effectively.

So, I'm very pleased to see that you're endeavouring as far as possible to get a design and delivery advisory group to own the challenges that this is bound to throw up, so that we can ensure not just that all our centres of learning are endeavouring to overcome these sorts of problems, but also that we've got external people ensuring, where those checks and balances are inadequate, that we've got adequate ways of providing against that bias, so that we're not having mountains of appeals, which cause so much grief to young people. I wonder if you could just say a little bit more about how successful you think you're going to be, to really tie the profession into addressing what are genuine problems.

Thank you, Jenny. We have to be honest and recognise that in moving to this approach there are risks that we will need to take steps to mitigate, and there is no good pretending otherwise. Sometimes, this debate about awarding qualifications is sometimes dominated by the suggestion that this is the simplest and fairest of models, but, actually, in speaking to young people, there are many young people who have concerns that, as you said, intentional or unintentional bias could affect their outcomes. And we know from the equalities impact work that was carried out on last year's system that those are real issues that we will need to work hard to overcome.

So, if I can just outline three ways—the first of three ways in which we will seek to do that. Firstly, it is the adoption of a national assessment framework that all schools will need to work within. Secondly, it is training—so, therefore, making sure that centres are aware of these potential challenges around fairness and equalities and making sure that steps are taken in the training of staff in assessment and that they are aware of that and can take action accordingly. Thirdly, it is the availability, which I referred to earlier, of equality-assured materials from the WJEC. I'm sure that many people in this Chamber will be aware, but, in setting an examination paper, a great deal of attention is exuded in designing questions that seek to be as open and inclusive as possible, talking about situations that are available to all children, talking about concepts or scenarios that children of all genders and from all walks of life will be familiar with. If you're asked to write a creative piece of writing about a foreign holiday when you have never had the luxury of experiencing a foreign holiday—. These are the things and thought processes that go behind designing examination papers and questions, and therefore making sure that there is available to all schools a set of equality-assured adapted papers and assessment materials that schools can then use, knowing that they've been through that process, is one of the ways in which we can mitigate against the risks that you're quite right to point out.

And finally, Rhianon Passmore.

Thank you very much. I do welcome your statement and the difficult decision made by the Welsh Government to cancel examinations in summer 2021 in order to allow more space and time for teaching and learning. This decision affords learners, their families and teachers the certainty that is required at a very uncertain time. Every day, children and their teachers are continuing their education remotely, and I know that, in Islwyn, many schools are adapting their teaching methodologies and ways of connecting with one another, and I do wish to thank all those across the statutory sector and within local government and our consortia for their determination and strong leadership. Minister, the well-being of learners and ensuring fairness across the system is central in all that the Welsh Government does when deciding on such issues. So, in what ways can the Welsh Government ensure, as far as possible, that all learners throughout Wales receive a relatively equitable learning experience during these very difficult months of winter and spring?

Thank you, Rhianon. It is really important, even in these most challenging of times, that we keep focus on learning core concepts within these subjects that children will be examined on. But it is clear that you cannot examine a child on content that they have not sat; it simply can't be done and it's not fair. This system allows schools to be able to make a judgment on work and course content that a child has been able to cover. And again, we will be giving further advice to schools to make sure that core content in qualifications is the focus of the work going forward. And schools were working very hard throughout the last term to do that and they continue to strive to do that now. But, clearly, core concepts in subjects is really important.

We're also in early discussions with Welsh universities and further education colleges as to what we can do to potentially address any learning loss—so, working with our universities to establish pre-university courses that can be run remotely and digitally during the summer to make sure that everybody is up to speed with core concepts, which allows them to make sure that their passage into undergraduate study is a successful one, and, again, working with colleges and local schools to help pupils successfully transition perhaps from their local high school into their college with all of the requisite skills, or, again, a programme, above and beyond when that formal course has come to an end and grades have been submitted, that looks to keep children learning where at all possible to continue to develop their skills and key competencies as we go forward. Because that's what we need: qualifications awarded, yes, but also young people feeling confident about their next steps and feeling able to move on successfully to whatever it is they decide to do.

Thank you very much, Minister.