We heard that there were significant workforce capacity issues before the pandemic and that the pandemic had exacerbated those problems. We are also concerned about the long-term impacts of the pandemic on non-COVID care. Whilst we expect that there will be an increase in non-COVID care over the next year, there will be sustained pressure on the NHS and healthcare workers because of the need to socially distance, and the fact that there will be reduced numbers of staff on wards, and this could be as big a challenge as COVID itself. We are also deeply concerned about the impact on NHS staff across Wales. We as a committee have recommended that the draft budget clarifies how allocations address the current issues faced by the NHS in terms of its staff numbers and capacity, as well as those issues that it is likely to face given the ongoing impact of the pandemic on the workforce.

We also recommend that more investment is needed in staff and training to support NHS workers. It's essential that the vaccine roll-out continues at pace, and the committee welcomes the certainty of funding provided for the vaccination programme and for test, trace and protect. Given that funding for the vaccination programme is made up of a combination of Welsh and UK Government funding, the Welsh Government should provide further information that differentiates between the costs met by the UK Government and those provided for in the Welsh Government’s budget that provide for those programmes.

The impact of the pandemic on mental health will be considerable over the next year and beyond. We welcome the Minister’s view that mental health services will be a priority going forward. However, in tackling increased levels of mental health problems linked to the pandemic, we do believe that the Welsh Government must ensure that investment is made in preventative measures that consider the wider determinants of mental health, such as skills and employability, education, housing, access to green spaces and physical activity.

Local authorities are also under increased pressures and there will be difficult decisions that will have to be made. It is concerning to hear that the increased funding in the local government settlement will not cover all costs pressures, such as those on social care, childcare and education. It is also concerning to hear that providers of social care have said that the local authority hardship fund for 2020-21 was essential just to survive. The Welsh Local Government Association has welcomed the additional funding provided in the draft budget, which is £172 million, or an additional 3.8 per cent in overall core funding compared with last year. However, we are aware that WLGA leaders have written to the Minister for Housing and Local Government asking for a funding floor.

The committee is deeply concerned about the risks facing our children and young people, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds and those in the early years, of falling behind in their education as a result of the pandemic. The committee has recommended that the Welsh Government should clarify how funding for local government and education supports the current ways of learning, and how it provides sufficient resources to address the negative impact of the pandemic on education.

The economic disruption caused by the pandemic has been devastating. Given the path of the pandemic is still unknown, and with many businesses still not able to trade and uncertainty over how quickly business confidence will return, it seems sensible to allow some degree of flexibility within the draft budget. However, the committee believes that we could see more ambition from the Welsh Government in its reconstruction plan, and better support packages for businesses.

As well as the forecast employment impacts, the crisis could permanently alter the economy, with fundamental shifts in working patterns, behaviours and the labour market. The committee recommends that the Welsh Government considers whether existing regeneration programmes still represent best value, and considers the need to be more focused on supporting growth and investment in skills and employability, particularly in terms of encouraging a sustainable, green economy. Whilst it is likely that 2021-22 will still be dominated by responding to the pandemic, and clearly there will be much work for the next Welsh Government and the next Finance Committee to do, we are hopeful that we can shift the focus to recovery during the year.

To conclude, therefore, I would like to thank everyone who has contributed at all stages to the scrutiny process, through our consultations, surveys and polls. Every one of these has helped shape our findings. I look forward to the Welsh Government's response to our report. Thank you, Llywydd.