Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:42 pm on 3 March 2021.
Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. There is of course no doubt in anyone's mind about the contribution of key workers during the pandemic. The people who have kept us going throughout the height of the pandemic in the different ways we've experienced—workers not just in health and social care but in manufacturing, police, the armed forces, education, transport, utilities, local and national Government, postal workers, essential retail, food production and delivery, all of these people have kept us fed, cared for, taught, connected and safe. And they deserve our thanks and recognition, not just now but beyond the pandemic, and vaccination is part of the way out of these tough times and the necessary restrictions that have been placed on our everyday lives. And the signs are encouraging, with the research published by Public Health Scotland last week, and Public Health England, showing significant positive impact from vaccination, and the AstraZeneca-Oxford study on a helpful sign about transmission being reduced with the vaccine as well.
Now, it would be wonderful if I could give this protection to everyone overnight, but we know that we can't do that and that we do face a need to prioritise. And, as we all know, the first phase of the roll-out involved vaccinating mainly by age and clinical vulnerability. By the end of phase 1, in around seven weeks' or so time, we'll have protected those groups in which 99 per cent of all deaths have occurred to date. I know there have been many calls for prioritising the vaccine for specific occupational groups in the next phase, particularly police and teachers, but others too, as the Petitions Committee have recognised. And I understand the reasons why a case is made for those groups or other key workers. Professor Wei Shen Lim, the chair of the independent and expert Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, recently said:
'Vaccinations stop people from dying and the current strategy is to prioritise those who are more likely to have severe outcomes and die from Covid-19.'
That remains the key aim of our COVID vaccination programme. The JCVI has reviewed the evidence to understand the association between occupation and the risk of exposure and harm from COVID-19, and there are specific risk factors for a greater risk of serious harm, and they include older age, an over-representation of certain underlying health conditions in some jobs, socioeconomic deprivation, household size and an inability to work from home. Occupational risk associated with poorer outcomes with COVID-19 has predominately affected, in the evidence that JCVI considered, men between the ages of 40 and 49, for all those people outside the current nine priority groups. The evidence suggests that there are a combination of factors, not just occupation alone, that lead to poorer outcomes in certain groups. We should remind ourselves that those poorer outcomes include people dying; we've seen significant mortality to date.
The JCVI advice also highlighted that delivery of a programme targeting occupational groups would be complex. The NHS knows how old you are, but it isn't likely to know what job you do with the same level of accuracy. The JCVI have concluded there was insufficient evidence to advise the four Governments of the UK to prioritise certain occupational groups in the next phase of the vaccination programme. An age-based model was identified as the quickest to deliver and protect the greatest number of people in the shortest period of time. And our broad understanding is that about half of key workers who have yet to be vaccinated are in the 40 to 49 age bracket. It is hard to objectively disagree with a programme designed to vaccinate the largest number of people in the shortest space of time to ensure that the most people are protected. And what we must not forget is that, for the first phase of the programme, the JCVI advised prioritisation again based on age and vulnerability. That was advice was adopted by all four UK nations—four different UK Governments, four different health Ministers, who have very different political traditions and loyalties, but we've all agreed on the nature of the advice that we have and how to provide the biggest impact on keeping our respective populations safe. And the success of the vaccination programme is undeniable and evident in both the Public Health Scotland and the Public Health England data published last week.
Now, I recognise some of the points that have been made in comments. I didn't quite agree with the presentation of Mr Isherwood's version of what's happened, because, actually, police officers have been on lists for end-of-day vaccine. In fact, I've had conversations with the police and crime commissioners in other parts of Wales who have noted that North Wales Police have actually had higher numbers of people vaccinated in that end-of-day supply. And we've clarified the position to make it clear that end-of-day supply—to make sure the vaccine doesn't go to waste, police and other key workers can, of course, be on that. I don't think that's a matter of controversy now. And it's—. Mr Isherwood will, of course, take his own view, but I don't think the facts support his version of events.
I also just need to make this point generally. This isn't about asking people to have some prioritisation, because if you prioritise any group, you are deprioritising other people. And a police officer in their 20s is at less risk overall than a police officer in their 40s, just as is the same with a teacher in their 20s, compared to a teacher in their 40s, or a post officer worker in their 20s or in their 40s. We're dealing with the evidence on how to protect people from harm, and I would need strong and incontrovertible evidence to depart from the advice of the independent, expert JCVI. I believe I am doing what any responsible health Minister should and would do to keep their country safe in the midst of an unfinished pandemic: follow the evidence, the science and the public health advice to save as many lives as possible. That is exactly what I will continue to do, and I look forward to doing so with an excellent team of people across the country to help keep Wales safe and deliver this vaccination programme as quickly as possible. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer.