Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:22 pm on 9 March 2021.
We do not support, in the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, these Welsh rates of income tax, and we'd like to vote against them, but I shan't, because if they don't go through, we will see a massive hole in our public spending because of the amount by which the block grant has been reduced. So, we'll abstain on this motion.
We certainly don't support these Welsh rates of income tax because there shouldn't be Welsh rates of income tax, because we had a referendum in 2011, when voters were assured, on the ballot paper, 'The Assembly cannot make laws on tax, whatever the result of this vote.' That promise has been broken, and I'm afraid that referendum has been negated in consequence.
In 2016, December, Mark Drakeford, then finance Minister, now First Minister, agreed with the Westminster Government to devolve Welsh rates of income tax, having previously agreed not to, with that assurance on the ballot paper. And that promise was broken. We saw, in the 2017 Wales Act, the Conservative Government in Westminster break their promise as well. We were assured there would be no Welsh rates of income tax without a further referendum. That has not been the case.
I welcome what the First Minister says about publicising Welsh rates of income tax. A lot of people aren't aware of them, because they haven't changed. But, in one very important aspect, there has been a change, because when we got those Welsh rates of income tax devolved, the block grant was reduced by an equivalent amount, and it was necessary to project how much the block grant would be reduced in future years, including consideration of a forecast for those Welsh rates of income tax. Now we see that we are getting £35 million less money than we would, because of those Welsh rates of income tax, because their yield has not been as high as forecast, and we in Wales are on risk for that, because of that devolution of Welsh rates of income tax. Of course, there are other issues that the finance Minister can speak about in terms of the fiscal compact, but those Welsh rates of income tax should not have been devolved, and there is a £35 million cost contingent on that.
Now, the First Minister criticised the UK Government for freezing the personal income tax threshold, saying that those who find it hardest to pay would suffer the most. Of course, those who find it hardest to pay aren't paying the income tax, because many earn below that threshold, and particularly so in Wales. We also see the freezing of the upper-rate threshold, which, of course, leads to costs being borne by those who are more able to bear those costs, so I was surprised to hear that criticism. We need to understand that these rates being devolved, even if they haven't changed, is costing £35 million a year, on account of the revenue that we're not getting that was previously projected, and it is a breach of faith, and it negates that 2011 referendum because the promise on which it was based has been broken.