Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:52 pm on 10 March 2021.
I've got a very positive sign on this. I believe we're starting the fourth industrial revolution—not as expected, as people were talking about, with artificial intelligence, but with homeworking and shopping. It's a completion of the circle from people moving into cities to work in factories to people leaving offices to work at home. We've seen over recent years changes in the way that people work and shop. The movement towards homeworking, online meetings and online shopping was taking place pre COVID, but what COVID has done is turbocharge it. Some people have said it moved five years forward, other people have said it moved 10 years forward. I don't know, but I can tell you what, it's moved forward a huge amount over the last 12 months. When we come out of this, it is not a return to March 2020. I've heard some frightening discussions about the roads we need to get people travelling exactly as they were before. That is not the world we're moving into.
Thirty years ago, I was telling my students about how video-conferencing was the way forward, and then 15 years ago, I was still telling my students how video-conferencing was the way forward and there was no need for travel. I've now seen, as I've spent most of the last 12 months on Zoom and Teams, that especially where high-speed broadband is available, it certainly saves a lot of travel. I wish luck to anybody who wants to get finance directors to fund them to travel long distances to meetings, especially short meetings. I know it's the Welsh Government's policy to have 30 per cent homeworking, but the Welsh Government have got very little control over it. I always think back to if the Government in 1900 decided how much they were going to cut horses by. Well, they didn't have any control over it; it was controlled by events taking place outside their control.
The Welsh Government can control the people they employ, and I hope they will use this to control the people they employ and get more people working from home. The private sector will do what works for individual companies, and collectively, that will affect the direction of the travel. Can I just say I do not relish spending two hours a day travelling up the M4 from Swansea to my office and back? I'm not sure if many other people do. But my journey is not abnormal in south Wales, to have that level of travel. It's certainly given me an extra six hours a week. I think what you're going to see is, because office costs are so expensive in Cardiff, you may well find companies saying how much they can save by having people working at home. But also, you'll have competitive recruitment; people will want to work at home because it gives them huge advantages, and they won't have a two-hour commute a day. But more importantly, they don't have to live near the M4 or an A road or near a motorway or near a railway station; they can actually live where they like. I think we'll see a lot of movement of people because of this.
Homeworking is really going to be made by lots of individual decisions. We've had it over the last 12 months in what can only be described as suboptimal conditions, where we've seen people having to work at home as well as look after children, whereas, if they didn't have that, their productivity would increase. But what we've actually seen is no substantial drop in productivity; no-one has found any of that. What we have seen is improved productivity with some. I think this is the direction we've been going in, and we've got there. Also, we've seen it in shopping. How many people are now happy to buy clothes, toys, home styling and other items sitting on their sofa at any time of day and night from an iPad, a phone or a computer? I worry about the future of physical shops. And just remember, online is not just Amazon, although that's obviously become shorthand for it. Every major retailer has an online presence and all are working towards improving their online presence.
We've also seen 3D printers. They didn't play a major part in the last 12 months, because they're expensive, and they're still in the development stage. This is going to change; they're going to get cheaper, they're going to get better. People remember when the first computers came out just how slow they were, and you've got in your pocket now greater computing capacity than took people to the moon in the 1960s. I'm just putting that in context. These printers are going to get better. People are going to make more. I've got a firm in my constituency that makes prosthetics on 3D printers, so you can make them as people need them. I think we're going to see a huge development of 3D production, and this will have an effect on other countries as well. If we are creating the designs in this country, if we are going to make the things, we don't have to send them off to other parts of the world to produce. We can be producing them—I won't say in our own living room, but certainly at or near our own home. These are changes that are taking place.
Universities have a huge role, with underused universities in Wales. Just look at what's happening not just with Cambridge, but universities throughout Britain that have developed science parks, that have developed industries alongside them. We need to be doing the same. And just one final point—