Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer, for the opportunity to update Members on the work of the inter-ministerial group on paying for social care. Since my last update, our work to explore the implications for social care services of increasing population need, and the development of practical options to address this, has continued. Inevitably, the pandemic has had an impact on our plans. Unfortunately, the national conversation that I announced in my previous statement could not take place, for reasons that I’m sure Members will understand. The pandemic has shown both the importance and the fragility of the sector. The long-term challenges remain, and, once we come through the pandemic, they will still need to be addressed.

The demand for care and support in the population means that already stretched services will not meet future needs unless action is taken. The Health Foundation has used work by the London School of Economics to project the cost of publicly funded adult social care in Wales. This shows that costs could increase by 80 per cent in real terms between 2015 and 2030, and these estimates complement shorter term analysis by Wales Public Services 2025. Whilst ageing is a positive trend, and something to be celebrated, grappling with paying for care is something that many Governments are striving to address. We believe that a UK-wide answer to social care funding is preferable, as it could take account properly of the important interlinking with the tax and benefits system. However, given that a UK-wide answer is unlikely for some time to come, we need to develop sustainable long-term solutions for Wales, which will require some cross-party consensus.

The inter-ministerial group is keen to share the knowledge acquired on these challenging issues. To underpin our work we commissioned, prior to the pandemic, analysis about cost pressures within the sector, and I have made this report available to Members today. Analysis of recently published data has shown net current expenditure on social services rising in line with the high-cost scenario described by the analysis. Should this trend continue, net current expenditure on social services could be up to £400 million higher in 2022-23 than it was in 2019-20, and this implies that growing cost pressures lie ahead for maintaining the existing level of provision alone. We also commissioned LE Wales to provide detailed analysis and costing of some options for a social care promise. I have also shared this report today. Potential revisions to the current charging mechanism were considered, and the three options considered in more detail were: providing fully funded personal care, both at home and in residential care; fully funded non-residential care; and a contribution towards residential costs.